Boris Johnson’s deal presents parliamentarians with three separate and distinct questions to answer in working out how to vote tomorrow: two questions of principle and one of process.
To turn to the process question first, parliament will have to decide if it is safe to switch off the provisions of the Benn act, which was passed (at great cost to some of us) to ensure that a no-deal Brexit on October 31 could not happen.
On the Commons order paper for tomorrow will be an amendment declining to approve the deal until such time as the legislation to give it effect has passed through parliament. Those who are intending to support that amendment aren’t necessarily hostile to the deal — some of my colleagues support the deal but will still vote for the amendment.
They will do so because a vote in parliament tomorrow approving the deal is not the definitive step in getting the deal done. Parliament also has to ratify the detailed text of the deal by passing a withdrawal agreement implementation bill (or “WAIB” as it is known in Westminster) through both Houses. The government assures us that can be done in a matter of days, but all the evidence points to it taking longer; perhaps much longer.
So, there is a risk that the WAIB does not become law by October 31 and in that situation, if the Benn act has been dis-applied by a vote approving the deal tomorrow (and thus satisfying the conditions under the act), the default is a no-deal Brexit in two weeks’ time. But that is not the only risk.
Opposition parties are certain to table amendments during the passage of the WAIB, including some that the government will find completely unacceptable – for example, to impose a referendum to confirm the deal. If any of those amendments is passed, the government has already said privately that it would withdraw the bill, knowing that the default is a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
So, we need the extension that the Benn act mandates as an insurance policy. And if, and when, the WAIB is safely through parliament and on the statute book, the extension can be terminated early, and Brexit can then take place – even on October 31 if the government is correct that the WAIB can get through parliament unscathed by that date. That is why I will be voting for the amendment withholding approval until we are sure it is safe to grant it.
The first substantive question is the impact of the proposed withdrawal agreement provisions on Northern Ireland and the future integrity of the United Kingdom. We cannot assess that impact meaningfully until we know what the future relationship between the rest of the UK (ie GB) and the EU will look like. If GB-EU trade is to be tariff and quota-free, the impact on everyday life in Northern Ireland may be minimal.
But if there is no EU-GB tariff-free trade deal, goods moving between GB and Northern Ireland, within the United Kingdom, will be subject not only to customs controls but to tariffs.
So, for example, Welsh lamb being exported to Belfast would be subject to a 40 per cent tariff, even though it never left the UK. I believe that will be unacceptable to unionists in Northern Ireland and in Great Britain – and that is one of the reasons why it is so important to have reassurance now that the future relationship with the EU will provide for a close trading partnership and zero tariffs and quotas.
Quite apart from the impact on Northern Ireland, we need to know what the future relationship between GB and the EU will look like for another reason: 98 per cent of the UK’s population lives in Great Britain, and their prosperity and their job security depends on the shape of that future partnership.
And as far as Great Britain is concerned, the deal Boris has brought back has one major flaw from my point of view: the absence of the UK-wide backstop means that there is no longer a guarantee of a minimum level of ambition for the future relationship.
Indeed, it could lead to no deal at the end of the transition period after all. That is why hard-line Spartan Brexiteers are signing up for this deal.
My former colleague, John Baron MP, gave the game away this morning: they are being told that, once we are out, the UK will make a take-it-or-leave-it proposal for a minimum-ambition, “Canada-minus” trade deal on the UK’s terms and when the EU rejects it, the UK will leave without a trade deal at the end of 2020.
I haven’t come this far seeking to avoid no deal in 2019 to be duped into voting for a heavily camouflaged no-deal at the end of 2020. But I am not a lost cause!
The absence of the backstop means the government needs to find other ways to reassure us of a serious intention to negotiate — and compromise — for a high-ambition future trade relationship. It would have close alignment of regulations on food and manufactured goods, low frictions at the EU-UK border and high levels of access for Britain’s crucial service industries. Any such deal would repeat the commitments that Theresa May gave to parliament that it would have a decisive role in determining the mandate for the second phase of the negotiations and approving the outcome.
If the government can reassure sceptics like me of its commitment to an ambitious future relationship under this deal, then even if it loses the vote on the amendment tomorrow and has to seek an extension to the Article 50 period, it can re-present the deal to parliament in the form of the WAIB once the extension has been granted and there is no longer a risk of a crash-out on October 31. There are many colleagues who would then support it — and the extension could be terminated as soon as the WAIB is passed.
I will stand by my phone!