Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Tubey]

This is why it’s vital for Johnson to somehow keep no deal on the table. So he can put May’s WA to them at the 11th hour, forcing parliament to vote it through. It’s got closer each time, and I think it would pass under those circumstances. That’s Johnson’s plan A, B and C.

I can't see it, unless he attached a second referendum to it - and if he didn't, parliament would take control of the House and do it for him. Remember, it's illegal for him to not seek an extension, so he can't crash out on no deal (no matter what lies he tells to the contrary).

His only other method I think is to run it to 11:59pm on the 31st and then resign, meaning we crash out by default. I'm not sure if that's possible, but I actually think Parliament will take steps in the next few weeks to make it even more bulletproof - e.g. a deal must be presented to parliament by the 24th or the request for extension must be sent then.

 

[Tubey]

Love him or hate him ..... Corbyn has played Johnson like a fiddle. The fact Johnson and the attorney general are practically begging Corbyn to call for a no confidence vote or a general election just shows they have no other strategy to offer. If I was Corbyn I’d sleep peacefully tonight with a grin like a Cheshire Cat across my grid.

I would honestly give Corbyn credit for this, but I can't because he actually fell right in to the trap initially ("Let's have a General Election!") and it took - of all people - Tony Blair to come out and say "what the hell are you doing?" to alert him to the trap so he could discuss it with the party and take a different course of action the next morning.

Since then, every response has been common sense - don't let Johnson dictate what happens as he has no power because Dominic Cummings plan - at least on the surface of things unless me and everyone else is missing something - has been a complete and utter disaster.

 

[Amw79]

I can't see it, unless he attached a second referendum to it - and if he didn't, parliament would take control of the House and do it for him. Remember, it's illegal for him to not seek an extension, so he can't crash out on no deal (no matter what lies he tells to the contrary).

His only other method I think is to run it to 11:59pm on the 31st and then resign, meaning we crash out by default. I'm not sure if that's possible, but I actually think Parliament will take steps in the next few weeks to make it even more bulletproof - e.g. a deal must be presented to parliament by the 24th or the request for extension must be sent then.

I suspect enough MPs would be spooked for it to pass, if no deal is still somehow an option, hence why Johnson’s got lawyers trying to find loopholes, and is considering a 2nd letter asking the EU to knock back his own extension request. I think your 2nd point is key, about parliament trying to tighten up the process to ensure no deal taken off the table. If that happens, he’s cornered.

 

[sbbefc]

I would honestly give Corbyn credit for this, but I can't because he actually fell right in to the trap initially ("Let's have a General Election!") and it took - of all people - Tony Blair to come out and say "what the hell are you doing?" to alert him to the trap so he could discuss it with the party and take a different course of action the next morning.

Since then, every response has been common sense - don't let Johnson dictate what happens as he has no power because Dominic Cummings plan - at least on the surface of things unless me and everyone else is missing something - has been a complete and utter disaster.

Labour just have to sit tight now, wait for the withdrawal agreement to be voted down and watch Johnson grovel to the EU for an extension. They can literally do nothing for the next month. Throw in his antics tonight and inevitable future gaffs, Johnson won't win an election after all that.

 

[Tubey]

I suspect enough MPs would be spooked for it to pass, if no deal is still somehow an option, hence why Johnson’s got lawyers trying to find loopholes, and is considering a 2nd letter asking the EU to knock back his own extension request. I think your 2nd point is key, about parliament trying to tighten up the process to ensure no deal taken off the table. If that happens, he’s cornered.

I've just checked the Benn Act, and this...

(3) If neither of the conditions in subsection (1) or subsection (2) is satisfied, subsection (4) must be complied with no later than 19 October 2019.

... with this...

(5)If, following a request for an extension under subsection (4) but before the end of 30 October 2019, the condition in subsection (1) or the condition in subsection (2) is met, the Prime Minister may withdraw or modify the request.

... already snookers Johnson I think.

To summarise, he has to send the request by 19 October. He then cannot withdraw or modify that request unless he has a deal. And even then, he couldn't send the withdrawal after 30 October, so if he put a, I dunno, 'fake' deal to the House somehow, parliament could then take control of proceedings and stump him that way.

It's watertight, it really is - he's bluffing, hence why no legal expert has found any loophole whatsoever in this.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

These are bloody surreal times to be alive in!

 

[Kurt.]

I've just checked the Benn Act, and this...



... with this...



... already snookers Johnson I think.

To summarise, he has to send the request by 19 October. He then cannot withdraw or modify that request unless he has a deal. And even then, he couldn't send the withdrawal after 30 October, so if he put a, I dunno, 'fake' deal to the House somehow, parliament could then take control of proceedings and stump him that way.

It's watertight, it really is - he's bluffing, hence why no legal expert has found any loophole whatsoever in this.

He needs the last red to win the frame but Corbyn has the cue ball tight up behind the brown on the baulk line.... gonna take some trick shot to get him out of this

 

[Amw79]

I've just checked the Benn Act, and this...



... with this...



... already snookers Johnson I think.

To summarise, he has to send the request by 19 October. He then cannot withdraw or modify that request unless he has a deal. And even then, he couldn't send the withdrawal after 30 October, so if he put a, I dunno, 'fake' deal to the House somehow, parliament could then take control of proceedings and stump him that way.

It's watertight, it really is - he's bluffing, hence why no legal expert has found any loophole whatsoever in this.

Will be Happy to be wrong on this one.

 

[Tin-Tin]

I've just checked the Benn Act, and this...



... with this...



... already snookers Johnson I think.

To summarise, he has to send the request by 19 October. He then cannot withdraw or modify that request unless he has a deal. And even then, he couldn't send the withdrawal after 30 October, so if he put a, I dunno, 'fake' deal to the House somehow, parliament could then take control of proceedings and stump him that way.

It's watertight, it really is - he's bluffing, hence why no legal expert has found any loophole whatsoever in this.

What worries me is that he is still openly point blank refusing to ask for an extension. By all accounts he, as PM has to personally request the extension.

May sound absurd but what if he just refuses to do it? Yes he will be in all kinds of trouble but nothing suprises me with him.

 

[Tubey]

What worries me is that he is still openly point blank refusing to ask for an extension. By all accounts he, as PM has to personally request the extension.

May sound absurd but what if he just refuses to do it? Yes he will be in all kinds of trouble but nothing suprises me with him.

Obviously hard to predict with certainty, but if he doesn't send the extension by 19 October, he'd break the law, his entire cabinet would likely resign, parliament would take over - which the speaker has already said he'd allow - and take the role of the executive to request the extension.

As to legal action against him personally for breaking the law, I simply don't know and I doubt it'd matter as Parliament would stop him before he actually could. But it'd hardly matter in the matter of Brexit as he would no longer be PM - he'd be removed by a vote of no confidence that would definitely pass at that point and an election would be called for November/December.

 

[summerisle]

He needs the last red to win the frame but Corbyn has the cue ball tight up behind the brown on the baulk line.... gonna take some trick shot to get him out of this

He'll headbutt the speaker.

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

He needs the last red to win the frame but Corbyn has the cue ball tight up behind the brown on the baulk line.... gonna take some trick shot to get him out of this

He is snookered behind the green and there is no escape.

 

[Alan Whittle]

If it happened like that the Brexit Party would demolish the Tories.

I don't see how dave. Boris, by achieving a deal, will have turned himself into a national hero. We will have left. What is the Brexit Party for after that. I'm sure Farage et al will continue to say we haven't left but people are so fatigued with the whole thing that they want to get on with their lives. The Brexit Party will be an angry rump.

 

[Alan Whittle]

I just can't see how that will happen. The ERG/right wing Tory backbenchers will be apoplectic if he comes back with a backstop (Farage would call it for what it is, even if the Tories try to pretend otherwise) and the atmosphere is so toxic that Labour et al won't vote for anything Johnson brings back, especially with no second referendum.

The chance of a deal passing before 31 October is... what, 1% likely?

Parliament has nowhere to go now. I think the deal, dressed up as something else with one or two substantive tweaks will pass. Once we've left, Farage et al will continue to say that we haven't really but people are so fatigued that they won't care.

 

[peteblue]

I've just checked the Benn Act, and this...



... with this...



... already snookers Johnson I think.

To summarise, he has to send the request by 19 October. He then cannot withdraw or modify that request unless he has a deal. And even then, he couldn't send the withdrawal after 30 October, so if he put a, I dunno, 'fake' deal to the House somehow, parliament could then take control of proceedings and stump him that way.

It's watertight, it really is - he's bluffing, hence why no legal expert has found any loophole whatsoever in this.

So if it’s watertight, why doesn’t he call a vote of no confidence ?.....