Anyone got a link to an article they feel is the best summary of the state of play at the moment and that handicaps the likelihood of the various future options? The past weeks parliament has been getting a lot of US media exposure but for a lot of my US friends it has led to more questions than answers and have to confess I’m not in that much better informed position to help clarify!
The article below from The Times gives their summary of options for any Article 50 extension as demanded by Parliament if a deal is not agreed:
Boris Johnson has insisted that he will not ask for an extension to Article 50, but will abide by the rule of law if he is ordered to do so.
This has led to a flurry of speculation about what cunning plan Mr Johnson may have up his sleeve to stay within the rule of law.
However, as soon as a theory emerges experts explain why it could never work. Here are the options we know about.
• Write one letter asking for an extension, and another saying he didn’t mean it
Under this plan, said to be under serious consideration in Downing Street, the prime minister would send an accompanying letter alongside the request to extend Article 50 saying the government does not want any delay after October 31.
A cabinet source told
The Daily Telegraph: “There is a prescribed letter that has to be sent. Does that stop the prime minister sending other documents? I don’t think it does.” The former Supreme Court justice Lord Sumption told
Today, on BBC Radio 4, that the move would not be legal: “Not only has he got to send the letter, he’s got to apply for an extension,” he said. “To send the letter then try to neutralise it seems to me a breach of the act.”
• Use emergency powers to annul the act
Mr Johnson could declare a national emergency by using powers in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 to seek to scrap the extension act. Senior lawyers said they would be immediately be struck down by courts because they would judge there to be no “emergency”.
Others pointed out that the emergency powers could be swiftly vetoed by parliament, which would have to approve them in seven days anyway under the terms of the act.
• Resign and force Jeremy Corbyn to sign the letter
It is not that easy for a prime minister to resign. Under Britain’s unwritten constitution, the Queen must have a prime minister at all times. Otherwise it would be the 93-year-old monarch who would be obliged to write to the EU to ask for an extension. Mr Johnson could go to the Queen and say he was resigning but she would ask him to name someone who could command a majority in parliament to take his place. He could name Mr Corbyn, but the Queen would expect Mr Johnson to remain in office until Mr Corbyn could demonstrate to her that he could form a government — which is easier said than done.
• Ignore the act
Much as some might want Mr Johnson to go down this route it would cause the resignation of a large number of cabinet ministers and potentially provoke more MPs to leave the party, as well as leaving the prime minister open to court action, potentially including a jail sentence.
• Find another way to force an election
Some have mooted the idea of Mr Johnson calling a confidence vote in his own government, thereby triggering the 14-day period at the end of which an election is called. Now that parliament has been prorogued this could not happen before October 14, so any election would be well past the Brexit deadline.
• Ask another EU country to block the extension
Extensions of Article 50 must be agreed unanimously in the European Council. Daniel Kawczynski, a Conservative Brexiteer, said last week that he had approached Polish officials asking them to veto an extension. He did the same, in vain, in March.
