Current Affairs EU In or Out

[peteblue]

Cmon Pete, you know the situation here. As part of preparations for leaving, a number of scenarios will have been produced, from best case to worst case, with varying levels of probability attached to each one. The press have unsurprisingly jumped on the worst case as though that's the scenario the civil service believe will happen. It's lazy enough from them, but I didn't expect it from you too.

It does strike me as interesting however, that there were clearly no plans drawn up by those campaigning to leave, yet when plans are drawn up they're the wrong kind of plans because they don't provide the milk and honey answers that leave voters want to hear. Given how easy it was all supposed to be, you'd think there would be a coherent plan from somewhere, wouldn't you? Maybe Mr Reese Mogg and his gang could have produced one? From what I understand, all he's produced is soundbites rather than anything more detailed.

My concern was not the plan itself, which as you say will cover the rainbow of scenarios, more about how it ended up in the public domain. Personally I think hard core Remainers are shooting themselves in the foot with such things. There is a powerful body of politicians, public servants and rich people who are still doing everything to undermine our exit and our vote. This long drawn out exit is merely allowing them time to cause trouble........

 

[Bruce Wayne]

My concern was not the plan itself, which as you say will cover the rainbow of scenarios, more about how it ended up in the public domain. Personally I think hard core Remainers are shooting themselves in the foot with such things. There is a powerful body of politicians, public servants and rich people who are still doing everything to undermine our exit and our vote. This long drawn out exit is merely allowing them time to cause trouble........

You're acting as though such things are a surprise though Pete. The concerns aren't really that different to the concerns expressed during the campaign itself and dismissed as 'project fear'. It's not like the scenarios presented in the report are news, either to us or our colleagues in the EU. Indeed, I'm sure they will have similar scenarios with similar findings as they too will want to minimise any disruption.

What would worry me more, is that so little progress has been made on the various concerns expressed in the report. It's been two years since the vote now. Can you point to anything concrete that has emerged?

 

[hullefc]

An election is brewing. Seems like Brexit doesn't mean Brexit. Rees Mogg and his unhappy bunch of merryless men have come a long way since 'they need us more than we need them'.

"The leader of the DUP has warned that her party will withdraw its support for Theresa May’s government if it adopts a Brexit deal that sees Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK.

Arlene Foster said ensuring Northern Ireland maintains the same rules and regulations as Britain was a “red line” which if crossed would lose the Conservatives the critical backing of her 10 MPs.

It comes as cabinet ministers are still struggling to find a solution to fulfil two of Ms May’s key Brexit pledges – keeping the Irish border open and leaving the EU’s customs union.

Within weeks Ms May is expected at a European Council summit where her administration had once talked about reaching an agreement on customs with the EU.

Ms Foster told Sky News: “For us, our only red line is that we are not treated any different from the rest of the United Kingdom, that there are no trade barriers put up between Northern Ireland and our biggest market which, of course, is Great Britain.

“That’s what we will judge all of the propositions that are brought forward … against that red line and she’s very much aware of that.

“And I have confidence that she knows that she cannot bring forward anything that will breach that red line or we simply will not be able to support them.”

"One idea reportedly proposed by Brexit secretary David Davis – and dismissed by Downing Street – would see Northern Ireland covered by a joint regime of UK and EU customs regulations, allowing it to trade freely with both, plus a 10-mile wide “special economic zone” on the border with Ireland.

Cabinet ministers were last month tasked with analysing the two main options so far put forward by civil servants for the Irish border, a “customs partnership” proposal that would see Britain continue to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU, and the technology-based “maximum facilitation”, or “max fac”, solution. Mr Davis’s idea was dubbed “max fac 2”.


But Brussels has already rejected both schemes, with chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier saying on Friday that neither was “operational or acceptable”.



EU leaders including Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach, have called for progress by the time the European Council meets at the end of June, with Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy head of government, on Saturday also telling The Irish Times the UK must produce “written proposals” for the border within the next two week.
Sajid Javid, the home secretary, said on Sunday that the government was making progress with Brexit plans, saying: “I’m confident that as we get to the June council meeting, the prime minister will have a good set of proposals and our colleagues in Europe will respond positively.”

But shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner said the government’s refusal to remain in a customs union with the European Union would ensure the UK was a “minnow trying to compete against whales” on the global stage.

He told Sky News that Labour’s Brexit policy would ensure “trade in goods would continue uninterrupted”, adding: “The Tories’ red line is actually going to make it much, much more difficult.


“They’re the ones who will be isolated, they will be minnows trying to compete against whales.

“They will be a 70 million strong consumer market against America’s 500 million.”

 

[peteblue]

You're acting as though such things are a surprise though Pete. The concerns aren't really that different to the concerns expressed during the campaign itself and dismissed as 'project fear'. It's not like the scenarios presented in the report are news, either to us or our colleagues in the EU. Indeed, I'm sure they will have similar scenarios with similar findings as they too will want to minimise any disruption.

What would worry me more, is that so little progress has been made on the various concerns expressed in the report. It's been two years since the vote now. Can you point to anything concrete that has emerged?

I too am concerned that we seem to be making little progress on contingency planning and actions. Whether that is government ineptitude, civil service defiance, or policy I do not know. But panicking about it or using it as an argument to reverse the decision will only make it worse. We have undoubtedly wasted time by believing that the EU would negotiate in good faith and we should be putting money and energy into a hard Brexit split or we will trapped in a never ending EU controlled web.....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I too am concerned that we seem to be making little progress on contingency planning and actions. Whether that is government ineptitude, civil service defiance, or policy I do not know. But panicking about it or using it as an argument to reverse the decision will only make it worse. We have undoubtedly wasted time by believing that the EU would negotiate in good faith and we should be putting money and energy into a hard Brexit split or we will trapped in a never ending EU controlled web.....

In my modest experience of the civil service, defiant isn't an adjective I'd use to describe them. Wonk'ish is perhaps a better adjective. You might argue that creative solutions require a level of entreprenurialism that is sorely lacking in the civil service, but I don't think it's fair to regard them as being deliberately obstructive.

Regarding the EU's stance. It's probably fair to say that our current state is their desired state, and they don't believe the current state can be improved upon. So their stance will be one of damage limitation, which given that we both accept that the folks on our side have done precious little work on mitigating the risks posed by Brexit, you must surely agree that their concerns are quite valid. It's not up to them to provide solutions to a mess we've volunteered, yet they are quite within their rights to say that any solutions we come up with aren't cutting the mustard.

Like the mythical technological solution to the border. The EU aren't deliberately obstructing things, they're simply saying they believe the solution we've offered is pie in the sky, which given that it hasn't been deployed anywhere in the world, not even at a small, pilot level, is surely justified?

 

[Number_25]

I don't think banging the economic drums is going to help change anyone's view on the matter.

We need to start talking about the human cost of Brexit, and ensure that ensuring and furthering civil/workers rights are at the forefront of all negotiations. If the government fails or succeeds on that front, then perhaps people will begin to see things in a different light.

 

[peteblue]

I see that the box tickers have sentenced Penka the cow to death.....

“Penka wandered away from the herd near the Bulgarian village of Kopilovtsi, straying over a border checkpoint into non-EU Serbia. But after the cow was returned to its owner Ivan Haralampiev by a farmer over the frontier, Bulgarian officials said the animal must be put down because of strict EU rules - despite being given a clean bill of health by Serbian vets.”

As the farmers said, cows, dogs, other animals and birds cros back and forth across the border all the time, all without the correct paperwork. There is no scenario in which the EU will enable a sensible border in Ireland.....

 

[Ruairi77]

I see that the box tickers have sentenced Penka the cow to death.....

“Penka wandered away from the herd near the Bulgarian village of Kopilovtsi, straying over a border checkpoint into non-EU Serbia. But after the cow was returned to its owner Ivan Haralampiev by a farmer over the frontier, Bulgarian officials said the animal must be put down because of strict EU rules - despite being given a clean bill of health by Serbian vets.”

As the farmers said, cows, dogs, other animals and birds cros back and forth across the border all the time, all without the correct paperwork. There is no scenario in which the EU will enable a sensible border in Ireland.....

which is why it makes sense for NI to remain in the single market.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I see that the box tickers have sentenced Penka the cow to death.....

“Penka wandered away from the herd near the Bulgarian village of Kopilovtsi, straying over a border checkpoint into non-EU Serbia. But after the cow was returned to its owner Ivan Haralampiev by a farmer over the frontier, Bulgarian officials said the animal must be put down because of strict EU rules - despite being given a clean bill of health by Serbian vets.”

As the farmers said, cows, dogs, other animals and birds cros back and forth across the border all the time, all without the correct paperwork. There is no scenario in which the EU will enable a sensible border in Ireland.....

Windrush, bla bla, there is no scenario in which the government will enable a sensible immigration policy.....

 

[peteblue]

which is why it makes sense for NI to remain in the single market.

Or that the ROI joins with the U.K.......

 

[Number_25]

Or that the ROI joins with the U.K.......

Oh dear.

 

[Ruairi77]

There is no scenario in which the EU will enable a sensible border in Ireland.....

Or that the ROI joins with the U.K.......

I gave you a scenario in which the EU will enable a sensible border in Ireland. It's one Theresa May has already agreed to.
Your response makes no sense in the context of your post.

 

[Methuselah]

Or that the ROI joins with the U.K.......

The ROI would be far better off leaving with the UK, not least because they would be out of the euro, a currency which is designed for Germany to the detriment of most, if not all, of the other EU countries. The problems of the euro (which have a way to run yet) would best be solved by Germany pulling out and reverting to the German mark. This will never happen though as, for Germany, it is like printing money.

 

[abelard]

The ROI would be far better off leaving with the UK, not least because they would be out of the euro, a currency which is designed for Germany to the detriment of most, if not all, of the other EU countries. The problems of the euro (which have a way to run yet) would best be solved by Germany pulling out and reverting to the German mark. This will never happen though as, for Germany, it is like printing money.

lol

The Euro is inherently flawed in its design, though this was not at all to benefit Germany (the sick man of Europe before the 2008 crash) - if anything, the Euro came about in spite of Germany, and it took years of combined pressure and subtle invocation of the war to coax them to abandon the Deutschmark.

It would be a disaster for a big, rich country like Italy to leave the Euro, let alone a small, cold, isolated island like Ireland, whose modern economic growth hinges on money-laundering and tax avoidance services along with real estate speculation. Any replacement currency would start off essentially worthless, not exactly ideal when you owe 130% of your GDP in Euros - or when you're a small, cold, isolated island and you just might want to import a thing or two.

You can just look at nearby small, cold, isolated islands that depend on imports, tax evasion, money-laundering, and real estate bubbles to see what what lies in store when you cut yourself off from your primary market in a fit of spite.

But that said, if we don't get a more sensible and less doctrinnaire set of Germans before too long, it really is only a matter of time before the Euro does start breaking apart, however ugly and predictable the fallout...

 

[Ruairi77]

The ROI would be far better off leaving with the UK, not least because they would be out of the euro, a currency which is designed for Germany to the detriment of most, if not all, of the other EU countries. The problems of the euro (which have a way to run yet) would best be solved by Germany pulling out and reverting to the German mark. This will never happen though as, for Germany, it is like printing money.

Taking nationalism and history out of the equation, here are some reasons why Ireland leaving the EU is a bad idea.
In order for Ireland to leave with the UK, Ireland would have to commit to a common market and tied currency with the UK. We would essentially have to leave the Euro and join Sterling. Any trade deals would probably end up being negotiated on Ireland's behalf from London as Ireland on it's own wouldn't have the clout. At least in Europe, there's strength in numbers when it comes to smaller nations.
Then there's foreign direct investment in Ireland. There are a large number of tech and pharma companies from the States that are headquartered in Ireland, mostly due to taxes but also due to Ireland being the only anglicized member of the Eurozone. If Ireland leaves the EU, it loses a lot of FDI which won't be replaced by British firms.
The Irish are a migratory people, we live all over the place, leaving the EU would severely restrict our ability to live anywhere in the continent. We already have a reciprocal agreement with the UK so by being in the EU we, essentially, have the best of both worlds.
If you read the headlines about David Drumm today, you'll see that without European intervention, we could well have bankrupted our country by ourselves 10 years ago. I'm no fan of the troica or how Irish citizens were left on the hook for the sins of the banking class but, with the EU, there was a safety net of sorts.
I personally feel that during the hard times of the 80's, the EEC stepped in big time to aid with infrastructure, education and culture. Again, should Ireland fall on hard times, there's strength in numbers in Europe. That's the whole point of it.