Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Bruce Wayne]

Read this in Nature earlier on, basically outlines the position Brexit has left academia, and what response should be made.

It's a peculiar situation to be fair, as there's a lot of talk about trading with the world and all that, yet many of the bright things that we would presumably rely on to do that are actively against leaving. What's more, the exporting potential of higher education is largely being strangled by immigration policies that restrict the sale of degrees overseas.

To cap it all, the minister of higher education is Boris' brother (perhaps unsurprisingly a treacherous remainer)

 

[Old Blue 2]

Perhaps the words of the song 'Trust' by The Pretty Things is most apt for all those 'Remainers' who cannot accpet reality:
'Excuse me please as I wipe a tear away from an eye that sees there's nothing left to trust'.


It's an excellent song in its own right! Very Beatlesque, but still great.


Actually most of the lyrics are quite apposite to this thread...
"Excuse me please as I wipe a tear
Away from an eye that sees there's nothing left to trust
Finding that their minds are grey
And there's no sorrow in the world that's left to trust.

Sitting on top of a white cloud
Looking round for someone there to trust
Changing your mind as you go through time
You grasp at straws,
There are written laws that say you must

With tired eyes you follow the man
That has in his hand a banner that says 'dust to dust'
Finding that his mind's gone wrong
And there's no sorrow in the world that's left to trust.

Sitting on top of that white cloud
Looking round for someone there to trust
You're changing your mind as you go
Through a time
You grasp at straws
But there are written laws that say you must.

Going away in the morning
You're seen walking.
We're going away, away
Going away.
As the sun was rising
You're seen walking.
She's going away, away
Going away.

Excuse me please as I wipe a tear
Away from an eye that sees there's nothing left to trust
Finding that their minds are grey
And there's no sorrow in the world that's left to trust.

Sitting on top of that white cloud
Looking for someone there to trust
Changing your mind as you go through time
You grasp at straws
But there are written laws that say you must."

Enjoy the song, anyway, if nothing else...

 

[Joey66]

No irony there Pete, have another go.

Does your hat fit!

 

[peteblue]

"The challenge for the scientific community is to keep searching for a route that will keep Britain very much in Europe, where it belongs, and forestall its drift towards becoming some kind of mid-Atlantic Singapore."

Ye gods and little fishes.....if this is truly representative of today's scientific community then we are deeply in the crap.....

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Does your hat fit!

Random.

I don't wear hats Joey.

 

[Joey66]

Random.

I don't wear hats Joey.

poor argument you argue blacks white though heylol
anyway its a flat cap up in Lancashire - lovely people!

 

[Joey66]

On LBC news this am the BOE apologises for getting it wrong on Brexit - so much for experts hey -
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...nomy-booming-after-brexit-proof-EU-Referendum

 

[Bruce Wayne]

On LBC news this am the BOE apologises for getting it wrong on Brexit - so much for experts hey -
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...nomy-booming-after-brexit-proof-EU-Referendum

Tell me Joe, the economy is one of the most complex things on the planet. a) how accurate do you expect us to be when trying to understand the economy? and b) if we assume that right now, there isn't an economist on earth that can predict what the economy will do in a years time, what is the alternative?

For me there are analogies with weather forecasting, in that the weather is a similarly complex system. Indeed, it's telling that this was the example used by Haldane. Weather forecasters also have a long history of getting it wrong, even though weather forecasting is typically only looking a week, maybe a month into the future, unlike our expectations of economists to provide forecasts years in advance. That weather forecasters get things wrong is no reason to tut and never listen to one ever again (experts hey), because their forecasts are infinitely better than doing nothing, and indeed many industries invest as heavily in understanding the weather as we do understanding the economy.

 

[Joey66]

Tell me Joe, the economy is one of the most complex things on the planet. a) how accurate do you expect us to be when trying to understand the economy? and b) if we assume that right now, there isn't an economist on earth that can predict what the economy will do in a years time, what is the alternative?

For me there are analogies with weather forecasting, in that the weather is a similarly complex system. Indeed, it's telling that this was the example used by Haldane. Weather forecasters also have a long history of getting it wrong, even though weather forecasting is typically only looking a week, maybe a month into the future, unlike our expectations of economists to provide forecasts years in advance. That weather forecasters get things wrong is no reason to tut and never listen to one ever again (experts hey), because their forecasts are infinitely better than doing nothing, and indeed many industries invest as heavily in understanding the weather as we do understanding the economy.

like that lady who should have been done for corruption did she not predict doom and gloom before brexit?
Bruce you can't have it all your own way you reckon experts are ace well in this case the were wrong again

 

[Bruce Wayne]

like that lady who should have been done for corruption did she not predict doom and gloom before brexit?
Bruce you can't have it all your own way you reckon experts are ace well in this case the were wrong again

It'd be nice to have questions answered now and then Joe For the record, I wouldn't ever say that experts are ace, and certainly not that they are always right, but I'll leave you with this to think about.

Numerous studies and exams highlight the awful knowledge the general public have on political and economic issues. In relatively straightforward multiple choice tests, the average mark is around 25%, ie its lower than you'd statistically get by guessing. Now you've posted numerous times in this thread the esteem with which you hold democracy, despite the poor knowledge base that most voters call upon (I'm not saying leave or remain are ill-informed, this isn't a partisan finding).

So if you ask me about experts, I'll reply to you that I think it is unquestionably a good thing that you think about your decisions and try as much as you can to base them on evidence and rational thought. I won't pretend that experts are always right, but they do generally try to do that, and therefore I'll always hold them in higher esteem than those who choose the opposite route of making choices with no forethought or consideration.

 

[Joey66]

It'd be nice to have questions answered now and then Joe For the record, I wouldn't ever say that experts are ace, and certainly not that they are always right, but I'll leave you with this to think about.

Numerous studies and exams highlight the awful knowledge the general public have on political and economic issues. In relatively straightforward multiple choice tests, the average mark is around 25%, ie its lower than you'd statistically get by guessing. Now you've posted numerous times in this thread the esteem with which you hold democracy, despite the poor knowledge base that most voters call upon (I'm not saying leave or remain are ill-informed, this isn't a partisan finding).

So if you ask me about experts, I'll reply to you that I think it is unquestionably a good thing that you think about your decisions and try as much as you can to base them on evidence and rational thought. I won't pretend that experts are always right, but they do generally try to do that, and therefore I'll always hold them in higher esteem than those who choose the opposite route of making choices with no forethought or consideration.

The evidence is a two way thing over Brexit Bruce it is coming to light that the doom gloom of just giving an OUT vote is now not stacking up hence the BOE apology today - if you look at that link there's even more good news around the corner do we need the EU yes a little bit do we have to be full blown members NO!
The economy is more complex in the EU when we have no control over it we out perform them so lets go it alone like we used to!
sorry for my short answer been posting many many pictures on the everton picture thread

 

[Joey66]

Tell me Joe, the economy is one of the most complex things on the planet. a) how accurate do you expect us to be when trying to understand the economy? and b) if we assume that right now, there isn't an economist on earth that can predict what the economy will do in a years time, what is the alternative?

For me there are analogies with weather forecasting, in that the weather is a similarly complex system. Indeed, it's telling that this was the example used by Haldane. Weather forecasters also have a long history of getting it wrong, even though weather forecasting is typically only looking a week, maybe a month into the future, unlike our expectations of economists to provide forecasts years in advance. That weather forecasters get things wrong is no reason to tut and never listen to one ever again (experts hey), because their forecasts are infinitely better than doing nothing, and indeed many industries invest as heavily in understanding the weather as we do understanding the economy.

Funny enough Bruce now that I have stopped posting pictures, for now - they reckoned the forecast was so bad in comparison of weather mans boo boo Michael Fish, and him being told their was no gales hitting the country down south when it was a mare of a storm, after an old lady a amutuer forcaster told him it was going to happen - lol

 

[Old Blue 2]

Tell me Joe, the economy is one of the most complex things on the planet. a) how accurate do you expect us to be when trying to understand the economy? and b) if we assume that right now, there isn't an economist on earth that can predict what the economy will do in a years time, what is the alternative?

For me there are analogies with weather forecasting, in that the weather is a similarly complex system. Indeed, it's telling that this was the example used by Haldane. Weather forecasters also have a long history of getting it wrong, even though weather forecasting is typically only looking a week, maybe a month into the future, unlike our expectations of economists to provide forecasts years in advance. That weather forecasters get things wrong is no reason to tut and never listen to one ever again (experts hey), because their forecasts are infinitely better than doing nothing, and indeed many industries invest as heavily in understanding the weather as we do understanding the economy.

Bruce,
Your first paragraph is points well made.

However, your second paragraph do not go on and make the points you wish to make fully.

The problem I have found over a long period of time is that those who work in the financial sector are routinely trotted out to tell us what is going to happen. Not what MIGHT happen, what is going to happen. Osbourne's mouthing off (for that is what it was) pre-Brexit is a prime example.

As for experts, take a gander at some of these:
"If Britain were to leave Europe our economy would go into recession. That would inevitably put people's pensions at risk"
Ros Altmann, Pensions Expert

"(Leaving the EU) is the biggest domestic risk to financial stability"
Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor

"UK businesses can create more jobs in Europe than out on their own"
Karren Brady


No, Ros Altmann, there is no proof or guarantee that the economy would go into recession.

No, Mr. Carney, the biggest risk to financial stability is the speculators in your own industry who, for example, caused the crash in 2008 by getting things totally wrong!

No, Karren Brady, there is no proof whatsoever that your comment is grounded in fact.

The problem with experts is that they believe the hype that has been heaped upon them, and so postulate about future things with statements of certainty, when the only thing about their certainty is that it is uncertain. I dislike the term 'expert', for reasons you know Bruce. There is only knowledge of what has gone before, and opinion as to what will happen in the future, particularly in an industry such as the financial sector, which is particularly volatile...

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Bruce,
Your first paragraph is points well made.

However, your second paragraph do not go on and make the points you wish to make fully.

The problem I have found over a long period of time is that those who work in the financial sector are routinely trotted out to tell us what is going to happen. Not what MIGHT happen, what is going to happen. Osbourne's mouthing off (for that is what it was) pre-Brexit is a prime example.

As for experts, take a gander at some of these:
"If Britain were to leave Europe our economy would go into recession. That would inevitably put people's pensions at risk"
Ros Altmann, Pensions Expert

"(Leaving the EU) is the biggest domestic risk to financial stability"
Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor

"UK businesses can create more jobs in Europe than out on their own"
Karren Brady


No, Ros Altmann, there is no proof or guarantee that the economy would go into recession.

No, Mr. Carney, the biggest risk to financial stability is the speculators in your own industry who, for example, caused the crash in 2008 by getting things totally wrong!

No, Karren Brady, there is no proof whatsoever that your comment is grounded in fact.

The problem with experts is that they believe the hype that has been heaped upon them, and so postulate about future things with statements of certainty, when the only thing about their certainty is that it is uncertain. I dislike the term 'expert', for reasons you know Bruce. There is only knowledge of what has gone before, and opinion as to what will happen in the future, particularly in an industry such as the financial sector, which is particularly volatile...

To be fair though, only Carney has hedged anything he said in terms of probability, but in reality, probability isn't what the media generally want. I've been contacted countless times asking for comment on what this or that will look like in 10/20/30 years time. How the heck do I know? Philip Tetlock has done a lot of work in the field of forecasting via the Good Judgement Project (https://www.gjopen.com/), and the general gist is that the best forecasters tend to be very subtle thinkers who have intellectual fingers in many pies, and who have both a thirst for information and the humility to change their opinions when fresh evidence presents itself.

Those aren't generally the kind of people that get trotted out whenever the media need to gaze into the future though, as the media love the simple rather than the complex, the bold rather than the cautious

 

[Joey66]

To be fair though, only Carney has hedged anything he said in terms of probability, but in reality, probability isn't what the media generally want. I've been contacted countless times asking for comment on what this or that will look like in 10/20/30 years time. How the heck do I know? Philip Tetlock has done a lot of work in the field of forecasting via the Good Judgement Project (https://www.gjopen.com/), and the general gist is that the best forecasters tend to be very subtle thinkers who have intellectual fingers in many pies, and who have both a thirst for information and the humility to change their opinions when fresh evidence presents itself.

Those aren't generally the kind of people that get trotted out whenever the media need to gaze into the future though, as the media love the simple rather than the complex, the bold rather than the cautious

The doom and gloom predictions did cause the £ the stock markets to tumble as soon as the out vote was announced stock markets now booming the £ recovered to the level that it should be v the dollar as Osborne inflated itv the Euro yes a drop expected that - no economy over the cliff as predicted!
Apology from the BOE excepted who will get sacked no one!