Current Affairs Donald Trump POS: Judgement cometh and that right soon

[catcherintherye]

From the NYT a few weeks before the 2016 election.

View attachment 272363

Yes mate. A bit like in 2022 when everyone predicted Trump to win loads and he failed. Or 2020 when they thought he'd win, and lost again.

This time Harris has all the momentum and is ahead. And she's not Hilary, so she's a show in basically.

If he's losing to Biden, he's losing to Harris.

 

[catcherintherye]

From the NYT a few weeks before the 2016 election.

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Id also add, 538 gave him like 30%+ in 2016. It was almost a tossup.

 

[coollino]

Afternoon @dylsexicbleu , reckon we'll win?

 

[dylsexicbleu]

Id also add, 538 gave him like 30%+ in 2016. It was almost a tossup.

And on the eve of the 16 election 538 gave Hillary:

77% chance of winning Penn
83.5% of winning Wisc
78.9% of winning Mi

Trump won all three states. Here's a link to their Penn data. They predicted Hillary would win the state by almost 4%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

 

[dylsexicbleu]

Afternoon @dylsexicbleu , reckon we'll win?

The good guys are in a better position this Presidential election than they were in the previous two elections. It should come as a surprise to nobody that Harris would get a bounce in the polls post nomination. Some of this bounce is legit, some of it is artificial(response bias). I'm quietly confident.

Oh, and take nothing at face value when it comes to polling or 'leaks' from inside either campaign in the coming months. From here on in it's largely a big game to enthuse one side and dishearten the other.

 

[Rita_Poon]

not quiet enough!

 

[verreauxi]

President craps-his-pants doing his usual nonsense scare-tactics to his gullible idiot base.

Unfortunately the only thing some kids return home from school with is trauma from mass shootings.

 

[Damo_1878]

President craps-his-pants doing his usual nonsense scare-tactics to his gullible idiot base.

Unfortunately the only thing some kids return home from school with is trauma from mass shootings.

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Why the all CAPS?

 

[Toffeepot]

And on the eve of the 16 election 538 gave Hillary:

77% chance of winning Penn
83.5% of winning Wisc
78.9% of winning Mi

Trump won all three states. Here's a link to their Penn data. They predicted Hillary would win the state by almost 4%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

If only you put all this effort into your own sanity, the absolute state of you.

 

[catcherintherye]

And on the eve of the 16 election 538 gave Hillary:

77% chance of winning Penn
83.5% of winning Wisc
78.9% of winning Mi

Trump won all three states. Here's a link to their Penn data. They predicted Hillary would win the state by almost 4%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Ok and they have Trump like a 30% chanceish, overall. It's hardly a huge shock.

A bigger misread was in 2020 thinking he could win, and definitely 2022 538 predicting him a huge majority and he lost. They overestimate Trump.

Clinton didn't have a single poll where she was over 47% in key states. Harris does, she has unknowns breaking to her (unlike Clinton) is facing an old man who's a criminal (unlike Clinton) and has all of the momentum.

These same pollsters, and probably you were declaring it all over 2 months ago. I remember that tool Matt Goodwin trying to claim Harris would go even lower on support. . How's that one working out?

I said then, she would increase support radically,.and I'm saying now, she's a huge favourite, beyond what pollsters can see.

 

[dylsexicbleu]

All you need now is GWB and Dems have went full axis of evil

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Ok and they have Trump like a 30% chanceish, overall. It's hardly a huge shock.

A bigger misread was in 2020 thinking he could win, and definitely 2022 538 predicting him a huge majority and he lost. They overestimate Trump.

Clinton didn't have a single poll where she was over 47% in key states. Harris does, she has unknowns breaking to her (unlike Clinton) is facing an old man who's a criminal (unlike Clinton) and has all of the momentum.

These same pollsters, and probably you were declaring it all over 2 months ago. I remember that tool Matt Goodwin trying to claim Harris would go even lower on support. . How's that one working out?

I said then, she would increase support radically,.and I'm saying now, she's a huge favourite, beyond what pollsters can see.

538 predicted Biden to win in 2020. Here's the link below. Not sure why you would egregiously lie about this. I know of at least two pollsters who have overestimated Trump in the past two elections cycles. The vast majority underestimate him. Trump is currently favorite with Nate Silver. CNN's poll analyst said the other day if Trump outperforms his poll numbers by 1% he wins the electoral college handily.

I am on record as saying Harris would get an initial bounce in the polls. The Trump campaign have said it too. It's called response bias. Her trajectory is currently downwards. The big unknown is whether her trend continues downwards or if she can stabilise it? Its more likely the latter as she's a woeful politician and a poor campaigner.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

[catcherintherye]

All you need now is GWB and Dems have went full axis of evil

View attachment 272368

538 predicted Biden to win in 2020. Here's the link below. Not sure why you would egregiously lie about this. I know of at least two pollsters who have overestimated Trump in the past two elections cycles. The vast majority underestimate him. Trump is currently favorite with Nate Silver. CNN's poll analyst said the other day if Trump outperforms his poll numbers by 1% he wins the electoral college handily.

I am on record as saying Harris would get an initial bounce in the polls. The Trump campaign have said it too. It's called response bias. Her trajectory is currently downwards. The big unknown is whether her trend continues downwards or if she can stabilise it? Its more likely the latter as she's a woeful politician and a poor campaigner.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

That's not true. The polls called 2022 as a big Trump win and he lost. A bigger miss than 2016. A number of pollsters called or for Trump 2020, and he lost. See the pattern?

And people like Matt Goodwin predicted no bounce for Harris straight down. I said she would do well. Looks who's been proven correct again,.the Trump supporting pollster, or me?

As with 2022 and 2020 I was proven right, and then wrong.

Her trajectory is upwards, this will continue towards the end election and her leads will grow. Harris has all the momentum, is younger and is big favourite. That's just a fact.

Trump is behind where he was in 2022, when he lost.

 

[Tommy Chong]

please don't reply to me you putrid bag of warts.

I have no idea what he looks like, but I can imagine he shares one thing in common with his hero Trump:

 

[dylsexicbleu]

That's not true. The polls called 2022 as a big Trump win and he lost. A bigger miss than 2016. A number of pollsters called or for Trump 2020, and he lost. See the pattern?

And people like Matt Goodwin predicted no bounce for Harris straight down. I said she would do well. Looks who's been proven correct again,.the Trump supporting pollster, or me?

As with 2022 and 2020 I was proven right, and then wrong.

Her trajectory is upwards, this will continue towards the end election and her leads will grow. Harris has all the momentum, is younger and is big favourite. That's just a fact.

Trump is behind where he was in 2022, when he lost.

Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022 so any 'loss' you say he had is dubious at best, some would say utterly irrelevant. I do not know who Matt Goodwin is and have no interest in what he says. I said I predicted a Harris bounce and so did the Trump campaign.

I don't think it's outrageous to suggest Harris would have a honeymoon period with some initial excitement over the new nominee and consequently frothy poll numbers for her. Again, I don't think it's outrageous to suggest this excitement would soon wear off. Here's the Trump campaign memo. It's looks fairly accurate so far:

 

[Blue 1]

Let it die.