Current Affairs Donald Trump POS: Judgement cometh and that right soon

[TN Toffee]

Whoever runs for the 2024 Presidential election should confirm prior that they will pardon Trump for the good of the country.

What's the actual argument for a Trump pardon being good for the country? Just so Republicans won't throw a fit? If that's their position, "Let us do whatever we want, or else" then they've become an actual terrorist entity.

There may be examples out there, but off the top of my head I can't think of any instance where handling this level of treachery with kid gloves has worked out well for a country in the long run, but I can think of some that didn't. The first that comes to mind is the near get-out-of-jail-free card that the Confederacy here received in the aftermath of the Civil War. It's nearly 160 years later and we're still dealing with the consequences of that choice. The second is Germany in 1923, which I think we can all agree also didn't end well.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Vivek Ramaswamy has overtaken De Santis now, he's the best GOP option.

That's not the present state of play in polling. The short version of the numbers is that DeSantis has leaked most of his peak support in January and February to Trump, Ramaswamy and the fringe candidates. Ramaswamy is above Pence in third place and trending in the right direction, but Trump is above 50%. Trump failing to win the nomination from above 50% in August would be unprecedented, but so is his present legal situation.

Trump is running ahead of Biden in most general election polls, but the result is within margin of error in almost all of them. There's 10-20% undecided or third party in all those polls, so one big question is what happens with those voters if Trump is convicted.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Whoever runs for the 2024 Presidential election should confirm prior that they will pardon Trump for the good of the country.

Would you not generally wait for a guilty verdict?

 

[Martin Alvito]

What's the actual argument for a Trump pardon being good for the country? Just so Republicans won't throw a fit? If that's their position, "Let us do whatever we want, or else" then they've become an actual terrorist entity.

There may be examples out there, but off the top of my head I can't think of any instance where handling this level of treachery with kid gloves has worked out well for a country in the long run, but I can think of some that didn't. The first that comes to mind is the near get-out-of-jail-free card that the Confederacy here received in the aftermath of the Civil War. It's nearly 160 years later and we're still dealing with the consequences of that choice. The second is Germany in 1923, which I think we can all agree also didn't end well.

The third is the Nixon pardon, which was deeply controversial at the time. It's not hard to make the argument that what we're dealing with here is the final reckoning for that one. Presidents have functionally been above the law ever since, in the sense that others took the fall for actions with clear criminal intent. Much of Nixon's inner circle was convicted. Many of Reagan's top national security officials were indicted after Iran-Contra, but either they were pardoned by H.W. or had their convictions overturned on appeal. Scooter Libby took the bullet for Cheney on the Valerie Plame affair, eventually receiving a pardon from Trump after a commutation by W.

Most democracies do not permit this nonsense to slide. Corruption charges against a former chief executive are not just a 'banana republic' form of targeting political enemies. France, Portugal, South Korea and Israel are among those where juries have elected to convict. Cases have been brought in Germany and Italy without result. Had Trump succeeded in overturning the election (or should he somehow win), our politics would probably look like Israel's right now.

What worries me is the possibility that Trump will prove as effective as Berlusconi in court. Trump is up against the varsity in Jack Smith, Fani Willis and John Floyd. The latter has decades of experience prosecuting Georgia RICO cases. The indictments suggest more than enough to convict, but I would have said the same about Berlusconi, who skated on most of his rap sheet and was able to leverage appeals courts to beat the rest.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

With regards to him getting the nomination, almost certainly not. DeSantis was the only person in the field who you could even see challenging Trump, and he's a flat out fascist.

Lightly tweaked that for you.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Would you not generally wait for a guilty verdict?

We have audio evidence of Donald Trump twisting the Georgia Secretary of State's arm to find fraudulent votes. At some point, I have to trust my own judgment over that of twelve strangers. It is probable that I know more about this sort of thing than anyone that will sit, and that anyone like me would be struck from the jury pool.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

We have audio evidence of Donald Trump twisting the Georgia Secretary of State's arm to find fraudulent votes. At some point, I have to trust my own judgment over that of twelve strangers. It is probable that I know more about this sort of thing than anyone that will sit, and that anyone like me would be struck from the jury pool.

I mean you'd have to wait for a guilty verdict before you pardon him.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I mean you'd have to wait for a guilty verdict before you pardon him.

There's precedent. H.W. pardoned Caspar Weinberger while the latter was under indictment, but prior to trial.

 

[RAFUH]

What's the actual argument for a Trump pardon being good for the country? Just so Republicans won't throw a fit? If that's their position, "Let us do whatever we want, or else" then they've become an actual terrorist entity.

There may be examples out there, but off the top of my head I can't think of any instance where handling this level of treachery with kid gloves has worked out well for a country in the long run, but I can think of some that didn't. The first that comes to mind is the near get-out-of-jail-free card that the Confederacy here received in the aftermath of the Civil War. It's nearly 160 years later and we're still dealing with the consequences of that choice. The second is Germany in 1923, which I think we can all agree also didn't end well.

Nixon being pardoned set a bad precedent

 

[BlueTX]

What's the actual argument for a Trump pardon being good for the country? Just so Republicans won't throw a fit? If that's their position, "Let us do whatever we want, or else" then they've become an actual terrorist entity.

There may be examples out there, but off the top of my head I can't think of any instance where handling this level of treachery with kid gloves has worked out well for a country in the long run, but I can think of some that didn't. The first that comes to mind is the near get-out-of-jail-free card that the Confederacy here received in the aftermath of the Civil War. It's nearly 160 years later and we're still dealing with the consequences of that choice. The second is Germany in 1923, which I think we can all agree also didn't end well.

The charges in GA are state charges. No POTUS can pardon state crimes and, IIRC, the governor of GA cannot issue a pardon for crimes such as Trump is charged with.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Interested to see what happens with Meadows now he is indicted, he knows where all the bodies are buried. All.of them.

 

[Martin Alvito]

The charges in GA are state charges. No POTUS can pardon state crimes and, IIRC, the governor of GA cannot issue a pardon for crimes such as Trump is charged with.

Correct, Georgia's constitution is tough on that item. They have a pardon and parole board that governors appoint to fixed terms, and they cannot take action until a sentence has been completed. If Trump were to lose in Fulton County and win the presidency, he would serve from a jail cell rather than the White House.

The Secret Service would take umbrage with that, so it's not implausible to conceive of a deal where Trump serves a sentence under effective house arrest conditions in Georgia. That would be interesting on many levels, and would be a nightmare for a large number of people. I shudder to think about how paranoid the Secret Service would have to be about a lot of things, when protecting a president in unfamiliar surroundings that cannot be moved at will.

Interested to see what happens with Meadows now he is indicted, he knows where all the bodies are buried. All.of them.

Depends on how dead-to-rights prosecutors think Trump is, relative to the value he could add to the case. The key in this case will be whether jurors accept two propositions prosecutors will have to prove: Trump lost the election, and he knew it.

If Smith's case is tried first in D.C., and the Fulton County team doesn't like how testimony in that one shakes out, flipping new witnesses who will not be called in that case (or will reasonably plead the Fifth given their own, separate legal jeopardy) will look more attractive. Witnesses in the one case will be unable to back off from their original testimony in the next, because that's perjury.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Correct, Georgia's constitution is tough on that item. They have a pardon and parole board that governors appoint to fixed terms, and they cannot take action until a sentence has been completed. If Trump were to lose in Fulton County and win the presidency, he would serve from a jail cell rather than the White House.

The Secret Service would take umbrage with that, so it's not implausible to conceive of a deal where Trump serves a sentence under effective house arrest conditions in Georgia. That would be interesting on many levels, and would be a nightmare for a large number of people. I shudder to think about how paranoid the Secret Service would have to be about a lot of things, when protecting a president in unfamiliar surroundings that cannot be moved at will.


Depends on how dead-to-rights prosecutors think Trump is, relative to the value he could add to the case. The key in this case will be whether jurors accept two propositions prosecutors will have to prove: Trump lost the election, and he knew it.

If Smith's case is tried first in D.C., and the Fulton County team doesn't like how testimony in that one shakes out, flipping new witnesses who will not be called in that case (or will reasonably plead the Fifth given their own, separate legal jeopardy) will look more attractive. Witnesses in the one case will be unable to back off from their original testimony in the next, because that's perjury.

Trump also couldnt pardon anyone else convicted in the GA case (ir re-elected) so if they're going down anyway, with no prospect of pardon, would they flip in one of the federal.cases for a reduction in sentence or some sort of deal.

 

[PhilM]

What baffles me the most is that an individual would be allowed to serve as President if found guilty of state and/or federal charges.

 

[Piijt]

This is a good read

https://www.meidastouch.com/news/geogia-trump-indictment