Current Affairs Donald Trump POS: Judgement cometh and that right soon

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Moomin said:
Think its people looking at the value on backing Trump.

I'm sticking with my 8/1 bet that Biden gets between 270-299

Will be closer than what the polls say.
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Yeah that top line could be right. Biden has been 1/3 this week in places and that's vastly too short for a race this close.

I have ultimately plumped for a modest stakes lump on a Trump win outright. This would include if he mangles it in the court processes. But no real confidence, an interest bet really.
 
catcherintherye said:
I mean just to add in on this, one interesting thing from this race, is that who people think will win, when polled is vastly different to the polling companies voting figures. So people are voting Biden but think Trump will win.

There is a lot of things that can be drawn from this. Firstly that feeling is likely to impact the betting market (and does, even at relatively close of most money is on Trump. It could be though, that on the ground in America, people get a very different feel and he is fairing a lot better than people think.

My own view is people don't tend to look back more than 1 election in terms of how they feel. 2016 was very influenced by Obama in 2008 & 12 really compounding the polls and outperforming the EC so there was that confidence they'd get through ion 2016 despite polls looking far more dicey. I suspect there's a bit of that in reverse here.

Either way though, Republicans seem very confident and Democrats quite nervous. It doesn't feel the sort of 80-20 it feels from what people think. So things aren't entirely alligned.
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Interesting stuff. I heard somewhere that on the Vegas books there has been steady money for Trump for weeks .
 
orly said:
No to be honest you often see £1m+ bets on these type of events so it doesn't surprise me. The betfair total winner market size alone was £300m.
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Apparenrly it was one of the biggest political single bets. Lots of money on Trump today though, and overall he is very nearly 2:1 to Biden in terms of money. I'm glad I squared off my early Biden bet with 7:4 on Trump!
 
catcherintherye said:
Apparenrly it was one of the biggest political single bets. Lots of money on Trump today though, and overall he is very nearly 2:1 to Biden in terms of money. I'm glad I squared off my early Biden bet with 7:4 on Trump!
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Good price that. He's 11/8 this morning. Personally I think his ability to mobilise his base has been underrated (again) which means he has a guaranteed core vote, and I think Biden's ability to reach across the aisle has been overrated and he's fallen into some traps in the last few days (not on the scale of "basket of deplorables"). But let's see. Love politics betting.
 
orly said:
Interesting stuff. I heard somewhere that on the Vegas books there has been steady money for Trump for weeks .
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You can read it two ways. One of people know more than pollsters do.

The 2nd is that, for whatever reason people who like to bet feel like Trump will win. My gut feeling is, the gambling demographic will be a bit more Trump. I'd also say, if you watch the two guys, Trump looks more of a winner than Biden.

There are some quite interesting things happened on currency markets too. There have been 1 or 2 spikes as happened the last time he won. So there's certainly stuff happening in the background.
 
catcherintherye said:
You can read it two ways. One of people know more than pollsters do.

The 2nd is that, for whatever reason people who like to bet feel like Trump will win. My gut feeling is, the gambling demographic will be a bit more Trump. I'd also say, if you watch the two guys, Trump looks more of a winner than Biden.

There are some quite interesting things happened on currency markets too. There have been 1 or 2 spikes as happened the last time he won. So there's certainly stuff happening in the background.
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I didn't know that re. Currency markets. That would suggest people are backing certainty and continuity (so the incumbent).
 
catcherintherye said:
You can read it two ways. One of people know more than pollsters do.

The 2nd is that, for whatever reason people who like to bet feel like Trump will win. My gut feeling is, the gambling demographic will be a bit more Trump. I'd also say, if you watch the two guys, Trump looks more of a winner than Biden.

There are some quite interesting things happened on currency markets too. There have been 1 or 2 spikes as happened the last time he won. So there's certainly stuff happening in the background.
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I did consider figuring out how much I’d be willing to pay to get Trump out of office, and put that sum on Trump to win...
 
orly said:
Good price that. He's 11/8 this morning. Personally I think his ability to mobilise his base has been underrated (again) which means he has a guaranteed core vote, and I think Biden's ability to reach across the aisle has been overrated and he's fallen into some traps in the last few days (not on the scale of "basket of deplorables"). But let's see. Love politics betting.
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That makes me feel better. I wanted him to get to 2-1 but in the end took the price at 7-4, I think he went out a bit more with some but not much.

I kind of like where I am at in terms of position. I can only lose nominal amounts but am up 25% ish with a Biden win. I kind of hope more goes on Trump though, Biden if he gets at 4/5 will be hard not to have another dart at.
 
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