Current Affairs Donald Trump POS: Judgement cometh and that right soon

[SteveSC]

They’ll tear democrats to shreds when they’re done with trump

Yep and that's probably why the Atlantic, politico and some others are starting to be wary of the ads. Pointing out their tactics and material is dangerous to both sides right now.

We could be watching something similar to the tea baggers with these guys. Purist type claims etc...

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Rook]

They’ll tear democrats to shreds when they’re done with trump

I dunno know how effective ads are. However for the time being if the neocons want to team up fine. There is going to be a long period of economic hardship and traditionally we've only bombed brown countries when economically we are rather stable. We can fight those battles later.

 

[BlueTX]

They’ll tear democrats to shreds when they’re done with trump

Just like they have tried to do all their careers. They haven't always been effective. Obama smoked 'em twice.

This year they have a unique target and, for now, I'm glad they've joined the fight against Tweetie Amin.

 

[Martin Alvito]

President who tweeted out a “White Power” video the other day, before taking it down without comment, says that “Black Lives Matter “ is a symbol of hate.

There's at least internal logic to that argument, if you accept Trump's premises.

That's pretty good by his standards. Most of the time it's demonstrably false nonsense.

 

[mill]

and most Americans would say Biden.

Not strictly true. Trump beats Biden on the economy and jobs and Biden ahead on Covid and healthcare.

A strong economy is a necessity for and incumbent to win re-election (although doesn’t guarantee it). Trump needs the economy open again. He has no choice. His rhetoric isn’t just because he’s an idiot.

Either way the election will be close. That doesn’t necessarily mean a divided government, the chances of a sweep either way and split government are all equally weighted atm. We are looking at a slim majority if either side get a sweep.

Voter turnout by different demographics is going to be important. The demographics compared to 2016 have slightly favoured Biden. Trump needs a strong turnout of white men without a college education. He’ll be trying to whip that cohort into a frenzy.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Not strictly true. Trump beats Biden on the economy and jobs and Biden ahead on Covid and healthcare.

A strong economy is a necessity for and incumbent to win re-election (although doesn’t guarantee it). Trump needs the economy open again. He has no choice. His rhetoric isn’t just because he’s an idiot.

Either way the election will be close. That doesn’t necessarily mean a divided government, the chances of a sweep either way and split government are all equally weighted atm. We are looking at a slim majority if either side get a sweep.

Voter turnout by different demographics is going to be important. The demographics compared to 2016 have slightly favoured Biden. Trump needs a strong turnout of white men without a college education. He’ll be trying to whip that cohort into a frenzy.

Think there’s little to no chance of a GOP sweep tbh. Can’t see Dems losing the House.

Best case scenario for GOP is keeping the Senate and WH

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

They’ll tear democrats to shreds when they’re done with trump

It’s not like they’re new operatives who have just started doing these sorts of ads. Rick Wilson has made a career of it.

 

[mill]

Think there’s little to no chance of a GOP sweep tbh. Can’t see Dems losing the House.

Best case scenario for GOP is keeping the Senate and WH

8% probability atm. Sweep for Democrats is c28%.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

8% probability atm. Sweep for Democrats is c28%.

Out of interest where you getting those numbers from? 8% sounds quite high, but even if accurate, 8% and 28% are far from “equally weighted”.

 

[mill]

Out of interest where you getting those numbers from? 8% sounds quite high, but even if accurate, 8% and 28% are far from “equally weighted”.

Morgan Stanley research.

I was talking about all of the different scenarios more broadly than comparing a D v R sweep.

The figures also discount the conditional joint probability effects (ie Biden getting president increases the likelihood of D senate & house) so probably underestimate the probabilities somewhat.

 

[ilikecheese]

When Obama won in 2008 I have to say it was amazing.

I was living in Oakland, CA and a crazy celebration happened right in front of the Grand Lake Theatre a couple of blocks from my place. Total strangers of all colors celebrating

Biden winning will be like thank F.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Didn't he claim that all would be back to normal by Easter as well?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

When Obama won in 2008 I have to say it was amazing.

I was living in Oakland, CA and a crazy celebration happened right in front of the Grand Lake Theatre a couple of blocks from my place. Total strangers of all colors celebrating

Biden winning will be like thank F.

A lot of work to do though, it would be a mistake to assume this is just a Trump being a lunatic problem. American politics is fundamentally broken, and until the duopoly accept their role in it, it seems unlikely to improve.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Morgan Stanley research.

I was talking about all of the different scenarios more broadly than comparing a D v R sweep.

The figures also discount the conditional joint probability effects (ie Biden getting president increases the likelihood of D senate & house) so probably underestimate the probabilities somewhat.

Yeah. For example there's no world in which the Dems win the WH and lose the House, and there's no world in which they win the Senate and don't sweep.