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Current Affairs Donald Trump POS: Judgement cometh and that right soon
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abelard
Player Valuation: £35m
If Trump wants to blow up the world order, who will stop him?
Yanis Varoufakis
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/11/trump-world-order-who-will-stop-him
Donald Trump’s early departure, and his subsequent refusal to endorse the G7 communique, has thrown the mainstream press into an apoplexy reflecting a deeper incomprehension of our unfolding global reality.
In a bid to mix toughness with humour, Emmanuel Macron had quipped that the G7 might become the … G6. That’s absurd, not least because without the United States, capitalism as we know it (let alone the pitiful G7 gatherings) would disappear from the planet’s face.
There is, of course, little doubt that with Trump in the White House there is an awful lot we should be angst-ridden about. However, the establishment’s reaction to the president’s shenanigans, in the United States and in Europe, is perhaps an even greater worry for progressives, replete as it is with dangerous wishful thinking and copious miscalculation.
Some put their faith in the Mueller investigation, assuming that Mike Pence would be kinder to them as president. Others are holding their breath until 2020, refusing to consider the possibility of a second term. What they all fail to grasp is the very real tectonic shifts underpinning Trump’s uncouth antics.
The Trump administration is building up a substantial economic momentum domestically. First, he passed income and corporate tax cuts that the establishment Republicans could not have imagined even in their wildest dreams a few years ago. But this was not all. Behind the scenes, Trump astonished Nancy Pelosi, the Democrat’s leader in the House of Representatives, by approving every single social program that she asked of him. As a result, the federal government is running the largest budget deficit in America’s history when the rate of unemployment is less than 4%.
Whatever one thinks of this president, he is giving money away not only to the richest, who of course get the most, but also to many poor people. With demonstrably strong employment, especially among African American workers, inflation under control and the stock market still buoyant, Donald Trump has his home front covered as he travels to foreign lands to confront friends and foes.
The US anti-Trump establishment prays that markets will punish his profligacy. This is precisely what would have happened if America were any other country. With a fiscal deficit expected to reach $804bn 2018 and $981bn in 2019, and with the government expected to borrow $2.34tn in the next 18 months, the exchange rate would be crashing and interest rates would be going through the roof. Except that the US is not any other country.
As its central bank, the Fed, winds down its quantitative easing program by selling off its stock of accumulated assets to the private sector, investors need dollars to buy them. This causes the number of dollars available to investors to shrink by up to $50bn a month. Add to this the dollars German and Chinese capitalists need to buy US government bonds (in a bid to park their profits somewhere safe) and you begin to see why Trump believes he will not be punished by a run either on the dollar or on government bonds.
Armed with the exorbitant privilege that owning the dollar presses affords him, Trump then takes a look at the trade flows with the rest of the G7 and comes to an inescapable conclusion: he cannot possibly lose a trade war against countries that have such high surpluses with the US (eg Germany, Italy, China), or which (like Canada) will catch pneumonia the moment the American economy catches the common cold.
None of this is new. Richard Nixon also confronted Europe’s establishment in 1971 while Ronald Reagan brutally squeezed the Japanese in 1985. Even the language was not less uncivilised – recall the summary of the Nixon administration’s attitude in the inimitable words of John Connally: “My philosophy is that all foreigners are out to screw us, and it’s our job to screw them first.” Today’s US aggression toward its allies is distinguished from those episodes in two ways.
First, since the 2008 collapse of Wall Street, and despite the subsequent re-floating of the financial sector, Wall Street and the US domestic economy can no longer do what they were doing before 2008: that is, absorb the net exports of European and Asian factories through a trade surplus financed by an equivalent influx of US-bound foreign profits. This failure is the underlying cause of the current global economic and political instability.
Second, unlike in the 1970s, Europe’s decade of mishandling the euro crisis has seen to it that the Franco-German establishment is now disunited and on the run – with xenophobic, anti-European nationalists taking over governments.
Trump takes one look at all this and concludes that, if the US can no longer stabilise global capitalism, he might as well blow up existing multilateral conventions and build from scratch a new global order resembling a wheel, with America its hub and all other powers its spokes – an arrangement of bilateral deals that ensures the US will always be the largest partner in each, and thus be able to exact a pound of flesh through divide and rule tactics.
Can the EU create a “Europe First” anti-Trump alliance, perhaps involving China? The answer has been given already, following Trump’s annulment of the Iran nuclear deal. Within minutes of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement that European companies would stay in Iran, every single German corporation announced it was pulling out, prioritising the fat tax cuts Trump was offering them within the United States.
In conclusion, we have good reason to be appalled by Trump: he is winning against a European establishment that wallows in perfect ignorance of the forces undermining it and paving the ground for appalling developments. The onus falls on progressives in continental Europe, in the UK, and in the United States, to put on the agenda an Internationalist New Deal – and to win elections campaigning on it.
In my rare optimistic moments, I imagine an alliance of Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn and our Democracy in Europe Movement, DiEM25, giving the Nationalist International led by Trump a run for its money. A few years ago, a Trump triumph in the US, Europe and beyond sounded even more farfetched than this. It is worth a try.
Yanis Varoufakis
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/11/trump-world-order-who-will-stop-him
Donald Trump’s early departure, and his subsequent refusal to endorse the G7 communique, has thrown the mainstream press into an apoplexy reflecting a deeper incomprehension of our unfolding global reality.
In a bid to mix toughness with humour, Emmanuel Macron had quipped that the G7 might become the … G6. That’s absurd, not least because without the United States, capitalism as we know it (let alone the pitiful G7 gatherings) would disappear from the planet’s face.
There is, of course, little doubt that with Trump in the White House there is an awful lot we should be angst-ridden about. However, the establishment’s reaction to the president’s shenanigans, in the United States and in Europe, is perhaps an even greater worry for progressives, replete as it is with dangerous wishful thinking and copious miscalculation.
Some put their faith in the Mueller investigation, assuming that Mike Pence would be kinder to them as president. Others are holding their breath until 2020, refusing to consider the possibility of a second term. What they all fail to grasp is the very real tectonic shifts underpinning Trump’s uncouth antics.
The Trump administration is building up a substantial economic momentum domestically. First, he passed income and corporate tax cuts that the establishment Republicans could not have imagined even in their wildest dreams a few years ago. But this was not all. Behind the scenes, Trump astonished Nancy Pelosi, the Democrat’s leader in the House of Representatives, by approving every single social program that she asked of him. As a result, the federal government is running the largest budget deficit in America’s history when the rate of unemployment is less than 4%.
Whatever one thinks of this president, he is giving money away not only to the richest, who of course get the most, but also to many poor people. With demonstrably strong employment, especially among African American workers, inflation under control and the stock market still buoyant, Donald Trump has his home front covered as he travels to foreign lands to confront friends and foes.
The US anti-Trump establishment prays that markets will punish his profligacy. This is precisely what would have happened if America were any other country. With a fiscal deficit expected to reach $804bn 2018 and $981bn in 2019, and with the government expected to borrow $2.34tn in the next 18 months, the exchange rate would be crashing and interest rates would be going through the roof. Except that the US is not any other country.
As its central bank, the Fed, winds down its quantitative easing program by selling off its stock of accumulated assets to the private sector, investors need dollars to buy them. This causes the number of dollars available to investors to shrink by up to $50bn a month. Add to this the dollars German and Chinese capitalists need to buy US government bonds (in a bid to park their profits somewhere safe) and you begin to see why Trump believes he will not be punished by a run either on the dollar or on government bonds.
Armed with the exorbitant privilege that owning the dollar presses affords him, Trump then takes a look at the trade flows with the rest of the G7 and comes to an inescapable conclusion: he cannot possibly lose a trade war against countries that have such high surpluses with the US (eg Germany, Italy, China), or which (like Canada) will catch pneumonia the moment the American economy catches the common cold.
None of this is new. Richard Nixon also confronted Europe’s establishment in 1971 while Ronald Reagan brutally squeezed the Japanese in 1985. Even the language was not less uncivilised – recall the summary of the Nixon administration’s attitude in the inimitable words of John Connally: “My philosophy is that all foreigners are out to screw us, and it’s our job to screw them first.” Today’s US aggression toward its allies is distinguished from those episodes in two ways.
First, since the 2008 collapse of Wall Street, and despite the subsequent re-floating of the financial sector, Wall Street and the US domestic economy can no longer do what they were doing before 2008: that is, absorb the net exports of European and Asian factories through a trade surplus financed by an equivalent influx of US-bound foreign profits. This failure is the underlying cause of the current global economic and political instability.
Second, unlike in the 1970s, Europe’s decade of mishandling the euro crisis has seen to it that the Franco-German establishment is now disunited and on the run – with xenophobic, anti-European nationalists taking over governments.
Trump takes one look at all this and concludes that, if the US can no longer stabilise global capitalism, he might as well blow up existing multilateral conventions and build from scratch a new global order resembling a wheel, with America its hub and all other powers its spokes – an arrangement of bilateral deals that ensures the US will always be the largest partner in each, and thus be able to exact a pound of flesh through divide and rule tactics.
Can the EU create a “Europe First” anti-Trump alliance, perhaps involving China? The answer has been given already, following Trump’s annulment of the Iran nuclear deal. Within minutes of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement that European companies would stay in Iran, every single German corporation announced it was pulling out, prioritising the fat tax cuts Trump was offering them within the United States.
In conclusion, we have good reason to be appalled by Trump: he is winning against a European establishment that wallows in perfect ignorance of the forces undermining it and paving the ground for appalling developments. The onus falls on progressives in continental Europe, in the UK, and in the United States, to put on the agenda an Internationalist New Deal – and to win elections campaigning on it.
In my rare optimistic moments, I imagine an alliance of Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn and our Democracy in Europe Movement, DiEM25, giving the Nationalist International led by Trump a run for its money. A few years ago, a Trump triumph in the US, Europe and beyond sounded even more farfetched than this. It is worth a try.
lollollollollol
so, there's no white house science advisor but Dennis Rodman has just arrived in Singapore!
The Bretton Woods strategy is notable in American diplomatic history in that it had no counterpoint. No other policy oscillated with it. Bretton Woods was both bipartisan and served as the norm for seven decades. But longevity and broad support are not the same thing as sustainability or permanence. The world is changed since the Cold War’s end, and now – belatedly and until now piecemeal – the Americans are finally changing with it. Trump’s foreign-policy beliefs are not a bug in the American system, they are a feature. Under Trump the Americans are firmly – finally – abandoning Bretton Woods, and in doing so flirting with all four of their pre-Bretton Woods foreign policies.
- Trump’s hardball on NAFTA is most definitely neo-imperial. He is attempting nothing less than the forcible change of the economic structure of America’s neighbors to meet specific American structural needs. Also fitting the mold is Trump’s suggestion that Russia be re-admitted to the G7. In a post-Bretton Woods world Russia is less a foe to be contained as it is a potential partner to leverage against other competitors.
- Trump’s position on Syria is flat out isolationist. As are many of his inklings on U.S. basing and strategic stances in Western Europe and East Asia. It isn’t as crazy as it sounds. Something that no one has ever been able to explain to me about American involvement in Syria is what-does-the-winner-get? And the idea that the Americans should defend the Europeans from Russia so that they can use Russian energy en masse has always been an awkward sale.
- Trump’s pending trade war with China has overtones of the anti-British policies of America’s early decades. And there are more than mere echoes of the general anti-British paranoia in Trump’s overall feelings about foreigners whether they be Chinese, Mexican, Iranian or Arab.
- Trump’s willingness to flirt with North Korea most certainly has a dollar diplomacy feel to it, and Trump has directed Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on a never-ending road-show for American goods… and linking potential sales to ongoing trade negotiations with, well, everyone.
https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=d6438c4853
abelard
Player Valuation: £35m
Well, that all sounds good until you remember that it's Donald Trump who you've entrusted with blowing up the entire world and creating something that serves you even better. Or perhaps you think he really is a zen master of 4-millionth dimensional chess?
What might happen in a World v U!S!A! trade war is, in a Bretton Woods world (if we're going to pretend this hadn't already ended almost 50 years ago), generally the sort of conversation that remains the purview of incel basement conspiracy amateurs. But let's assume that Trump actually represents a serious attempt, and that there really is someone calling the shots in the White House, who thinks along the lines of the passage you've quoted.
There's no doubt that a Pet Semetary America could wreak a lot of damage, but the point of mutually assured destruction is that it's mutual. The more you hurt us, the more we hurt you. The lord giveth and the lord taketh away. And even a wrathful Canada - never mind an actual significant country - could devastate America vastly beyond what Bubba with the MAGA hat who owns the ski-doo dealership could ever imagine.
Quebec alone could turn the lights out in Boston, New York, and much of the Atlantic seaboard, if it ever dared. Canada is the top export destination for 35 US states. Auto production in the US (the states on which Republican electoral plausibility hinges) would stop tomorrow if anything happened to the Ontario border. Hundreds of American car industry firms would shutter, because they'd never be able to re-assemble Ontario's production - by far the most sophisticated and technologically advanced in North America - in time to fulfill their supply lines, not least because Trump has already driven up the price of steel. They could probably never match the quality of labour. It's the same thing with Canadian oil pipelines - US shale doesn't have a prayer of replacing any shortfall before the world price spikes upwards (again not least because they could no longer afford the steel), and we all know how much the MAGA hats love it when overnight it costs, say, 40% more to go to the store for bacon-wrapped-pancakes-on-a-stick in the ridiculous pickup trucks upon which, thanks to America's uniquely stupid urban design, they literally depend for survial. Statscan estimates that 9 million US jobs are directly dependent on Canadian trade. And that's just a single glorified colony with an economy smaller than California. Your state alone probably probably relies on NAFTA alone for at least a few billion worth of exports - which feeds a lot of farmers and suppliers spread over a lot of congressional districts. Is Florida going to feel Great Again if that abruptly stops?
Yanis (as the kids say, retweets do not = endorsements) is probably right that the current Canadian and European liberals (liberal in the sense of being "too broadminded to support their own side in a quarrel") will only realise what has hit them well after the fact - though its hard to imagine anyone doing more than Trump to impress this upon us. And even as hapless and beholden to failing ideology as German Europe is these days, it can still inflict well above the US electorate's delicate pain threshold.
China, on the other hand, is much more competently managed. Even without your dotardocracy, they likely to supplant the US in my lifetime, if not yours. And all Trump's simultaneous tax cuts and spending splurges have done is to make the entire American fiscal model even more dependent on the good graces of China (and Japan, Europe, and the Arab oil states). If questioning the wisdom of the dollar's status as a reserve currency ever gets beyond the current idle chatter, your time as the world's birthday boy ends forever. A sizeable percentage of Americans report being unable to accomodate an unexpected expense of $400. The personal debt to income ratio is over 90% (so likely over 200% if you exclude the top 5% of earners). Even with the US economy statistically booming, 65% of Americans report losing sleep over their finances, the highest rate at any point since the crisis. Are they ready to volunteer as Trump's financial foot-soldiers in an economic war to forge the fourth reich? Hardly. They will start burning down the malls and shooting each other if prices at Walwart go up by more than a few percentage points - which Chinese political system could deliver within the hour, if it ever wanted to.
Of course the US could thrash back and dish out pain of its own, but as the 1930s suggest, countries tend to react by doubling down on nationalism rather than surrender. Even snowflakes like Canada. When the Americans imposed tariffs in 1930, the Liberal Party replied with tariffs of their own and was promptly voted out of office - replaced by the Tories, who immediately doubled what the Liberals had just imposed.
Americans love to imagine playing global cowboys and indians, but like everywhere else in the rich world, they are an historically soft and decedant people, prone to crying 'uncle' the minute somebody gets a rug-burn. I don't imagine Tump's frolic playing out any differently than when George Bush tried to score the same points - and was, with the midterms looming, begging the EU for mercy within months.
Anyhow, I'd be more worried about the stock market bubble if I were you - probably odds even that there's a severe recession before 2020, if not the midterms, and given that the industrial world is barely even growing despite a flood of QE money and not having had interest rates for a decade, there will be no monetary solution this time around.
That will probably be when America ushers in an actually competent fascist, and when I'll start paying attention to your conspiracies ; )
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Donald and Kim. A match made in heaven.
SpongeBob brown shoes
Player Valuation: £40m
Trump and Kim have done a brilliant thing today
JamesN
Player Valuation: £500k
Now another one to add to the list.
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