Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[BlueToff]

For reasons many will know why, I have kinda dialed out of this recently.

But tip toeing back in, am I being daft recalling that when the Kent variant pitched up, it seemed that they pretty quickly worked out its properties, re infectious, and seriousness. But this Omni thing seems to be more of a mystery, or, well, draw your own conclusions.

WB mate, hope you're well, all things considered.

Omicron from what we know is by far the most transmissible, 8 x that of Delta apparently

Good thing is, it's a lot milder. That seems to be because part of its genetic make-up is the same as one of the coronaviruses that causes a common cold. It's likely that it developed from somebody or a group of people that caught COVID and a cold at the same time and, well this variant was created.

We all know how easy it is to catch a cold, but we all also know how mild they are. The boosters offer 70% protection from any symptoms with this variant, according to the official data, which is a really good thing too. Basically loads of people are going to get this and we can confidently say loads of people will be fine and also that it will create a lot of natural immunity.

That seems to be the line of thinking anyway and so far that's what all the evidence suggests.

 

[BlueToff]

Would a lockdown even work now? It's here and it's exploded already. The lockdown required to get this down to below 1 is almost impossible.

I said a few weeks ago when they reintroduced masks in shops that the only possible way to maybe get ahead of this was total lockdown, straight away. But the country can't afford it. No country can. And even then, Omicron was likely here so it would have still been here when we opened up and we'd get a big hit again.

Countries with tighter restrictions in Europe still expect to get hit by Omicron too. The US will get it in 2-3 weeks. It can't be stopped, it can hardly be slowed down. But it's so mild that it's gonna be fine for the vast majority of people. 70% no symptoms at all after a booster jab is pretty good and that 30%, you're only gonna get 1-2% that need any higher level of care.

Issue is though that 1-2% of 20-30 million people is a lot.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

There will always be cases - but the government have a choice between doing something right and having fewer cases, or doing nothing right and having rather more cases.

Can get while people are angry and not very convinced, the government was very clear until recently nothing changes until hospitalization start going up.
Pure and simple poor leadership and messaging throughout the entire government for most of the time. Probably best not listen to them and go straight to the scientific opinion as some are aware.

 

[BlueToff]

Lots of hoping in that comment and not much knowing. Which is the point of being cautious now - we don’t know if this variant is milder and there is reason to believe that it mightn’t be.

Ultimately, if the Chief Scientific Advisor is saying that we shouldn’t be gathering and hospital admissions will soar, then something has to be done to slow it down while the booster jabs take effect.

Well actually the official data is that the booster = 70% protection from any symptoms mate so actually we do know that

 

[BlueToff]

There is some promising looking evidence from S Africa that it could be milder though. We have to get away from case numbers because its hospitalisation numbers that are the key factor. I have confidence in the vaccines that they will work.

The booster programme is very well advanced. I dont see how lowering the eligibility from 30+ into the 20s is going to make a big difference. We need to just keep encouraging people to make their appointment and come forward because most adults are eligible now.

No could about it mate, it absolutely is milder. That's been confirmed. As has the level of protection from boosters. Only issue is the amount of cases we'll get and what percentage of those need hospital care.

 

[BlueToff]

I think the problem with the S Africa data and the mildness of the new variant is that the comparisons are being made to the effects of the Delta variant in S Africa (when there wasn’t much by way of immunity) and so Omicron appears to be milder but that could be more to do with wider immunity since Delta.

In this country, we are yet to really find out.

The experts in South Africa who discovered this variant are all saying it is milder.

The initial research which has now been peer reviewed within the UK shows a 29% drop in severity from Delta to Omicron.

It is milder. There's lots of immunity, through vaccines and or natural infection, in the UK. Estimated at least 90% of the population.

The question is, as you do rightly point out, the issue between vaccine immunity and natural immunity. The UK has more of the former, less of the latter. South Africa the other way around.

But the genetic make up of this new variant quite literally shares some of its sequencing with a common-cold causing coronavirus. Which is likely why it's so much more infectious. But also why it's likely much more mild.

 

[BlueToff]

I know my parents (in 50s) got their boosters a few weeks ago so the process is well advanced now.

Anyone over 30 can book an appointment so all we can do is encourage everyone to come forward, especially anyone who is more vulnerable.

I'm 26 and getting mine at the end of December. And I booked the last possible day as frankly I've got better things to do next week. Call me selfish (I know you won't), but I know I've got a very decent level of protection from this thing. I've decided to do a test every 3 days as my cousin who lives across the road has been sent tons by her school since she's got Covid atm (and very likely Omicron due to the symptoms - body aches, sore throat, she was ill for 2 days and is already feeling loads better). My aunt got them to drop some round at ours too, so we have a fair bit. That way I can see my niece and nana over Xmas and know we're doing all we can to be safe and sound.

My parents (58 and 65) are boosted. My aunt who I just mentioned has been in the house with my cousin (who is 10) for 5 days now and has tested negative on a PCR and 4 lateral flows (she's also boosted and hasn't had covid previously). I'll be boosted soon. My sister has just had her second jab.

There's a lot of positives (relatively speaking of course) to look at here. It's milder, it's going to create a lot of immunity, the boosters offer 70% chance of making anybody with it asymptomatic (compare that to the actual vaccines v Delta, Alpha, Beta etc which were like 70-90% chance against serious illness - these are 70% chance against any symptoms whatsoever. That's how milder it is). It's just that issue of how quickly it spreads leading to that 1/2% that may need hospital care being too big of a number.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[efcfanwirral]

My concern from that South Africa is that we'll peak cases just before restrictions, then hospitalisations for a short period will make it look bad, then restrictions credited with keeping it down, leading to months of lockdown again.

Basically I can't even bring myself to imagine normal life before summer. That's not a good place to be

 

[MikeH72]

My concern from that South Africa is that we'll peak cases just before restrictions, then hospitalisations for a short period will make it look bad, then restrictions credited with keeping it down, leading to months of lockdown again.

Basically I can't even bring myself to imagine normal life before summer. That's not a good place to be

You do you, I’m making plans to see my friends and family as normal. Not a chance these criminals are stopping me living my life.

 

[Ghost Rider]

How so?

Originally it was about if the rules and restrictions being political rather than science based

So your last post put them at science rather than politics so we discuss anymore about it and we end up back a the politicians!

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Nobody had died from the original Wuhan virus until 2nd. March 2020, then 5 a week later, 47, 213 and 595 in each of the following weeks by which time, 30 March, 2800 people a day were being admitted to hospital. This is not a prediction far from it due to vaccines we hope but it's worth remembering from our recent past this nasty little beastie can surge without vaccines or if it manages to evade them at least in part.

 

[Paris]

I get my booster tonight. I’m so very excited.

 

[tsubaki]

From the Guardian’s liveblog:

Only half of people in UK with Covid ever get tested, says scientific adviser, who predicts 'huge wave of infection'​

A UK government scientific adviser has said that only around half of people who have Covid ever get tested and predicted that Omicron would lead to “a huge wave of infection”.
Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told BBC Breakfast: “Only about half or maybe even fewer of people who do have Covid ever get tested.”
He said the doubling rate of new variant Omicron would lead to an “extraordinary number of cases” and “a huge wave of infection”.
He added:

If you think about getting a year’s worth of rain over a month, then you’re going to get flooding and potentially severe flooding, no matter how much you’ve shored up your defences.
And that’s the concern here - that that huge wave is going to cause lots of people to be off work having to isolate, which is going to cause disruption, and it’s going to spill over into people going into hospital.
Now the rate at which it spills over is uncertain because we don’t know exactly how severe it is yet, but we’ve no particular reason to think that it’s less severe than previous strains.
We know that Covid is always going to be less severe if you’ve been immunised but it may be that rather than the strain itself that’s making a lot of cases look less severe.

He said that by Christmas or new year there should be more data about the severity of the new variant, but said that by then it would be too late to take action.
Asked about current restrictions, he said:

I think the scale of the potential problem that we’re looking at here does mean that we need to bite the bullet and we need to tell people that there’s two really important things here.
One is to get boosted, the other if we want to slow it down now... Then what we need to do is reduce the number of contacts that we have, we need to avoid crowded spaces with lots of people in and unfortunately, yes, that does mean parties etc. And so that’s a difficult message.

 

[maccavennie]

I get my booster tonight. I’m so very excited.

Have a booster party to celebrate


On 2nd thoughts maybe not