Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Thanks .

I’m still sort of struggling to put it all together but got that , I’ll definitely need a re listen to that clarification as well .

Yeah re-listen to the follow up question from TOm Newton Dunn (I think). It clicked with me when Whitty explained it 2nd time round, but it’s quite nuanced and hard to get across.

Think it comes down to a countries relative immunity rate for delta versus omicron. Not comparative between the countries, but each counties immunity rate at the time the wave hit, and the difference between immunity from one wave to the next.

I.E if SA had 0% immunity for delta, then 20% for omicron, you’d expect to see less hospitalisations irrespective of intrinsic severity.

If UKs immunity was already high for delta, we might not see the drop in hospitalisations.
 
I didn’t get that point either, but he’s just clarified it in follow up, as being about the difference in immunity levels between delta and omicron for SA and UK.

I.E - SA had no immunity in their Delta wave, but they have some immunity for their omicron versus the UK already had some immunity for our delta wave.

So the difference SA have seen between delta and omicron hospitalisation rates could be attributable to their relative difference in immunity between the 2 waves. Make sense? It’s quite a subtle point.

He did also say, it’s possible the intrinsic severity could have changed, but don’t have the data to show it yet.

I was lost by it too, right over my head. There is surely as much built up immunity in this country as South Africa.

There is evidence this will be less severe. I don't think we can keep denying it.
 
I was very surprised when I read this in The Times today:

A third of Londoners are completely unvaccinated, as a surge of Omicron cases sweeps the capital.

The proportion of the population without a single jab is three times as high in London as in the country as a whole, and the 14 areas with the country’s lowest vaccination rates are all London boroughs. In Westminster four in ten people have not had a single jab.

Low vaccination rates could be contributing to a surge in Omicron in the capital, where more people are now thought to be getting infected with the new variant than with Delta. Yesterday 12,832 cases were reported in total, and numbers are on course to double in a week.


Although Londoners tend to be younger than the rest of the country, people in the capital have lower vaccination rates in every age group.


The Prince of Wales yesterday spoke out against anti-vaccination conspiracy theories as he thanked volunteers and NHS staff at a vaccination centre. The prince joined the effort to encourage people to have their booster jab with a visit to a makeshift clinic in Kennington, south London.

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Expressing his annoyance with the antivax movement, he said: “It is so frustrating, all these nonsense conspiracy theories.”
MPs criticised the unvaccinated yesterday for being “cavalier about the health of the public” in a debate on Covid certification.

NHS chiefs have been frustrated since the start of the vaccination programme with the way that London has lagged behind. One reason is likely to be a more transient population that lacks the personal links to GP surgeries that have helped ensure strong take-up in other parts of the country.
Overall 11 per cent of the UK has yet to receive a single dose of vaccine, but this rises to 32 per cent in London. Scotland is the most vaccinated part of the UK, with just 8.8 per cent not having had a single dose of Covid vaccine. This rises to 21 per cent in the North West and the West Midlands, which have the highest unvaccinated rates outside London.

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Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, said London’s lower take-up was “probably due to a number of things. London has an ethnically diverse population and it has been difficult to roll the vaccine out to some ethnic groups, so I’m sure that’s part of it. There’s a lot of poverty in parts of London, and that sort of thing also impacts on the take-up of vaccines.”

In every five-year age band, London has the worst vaccination rates. For example, 88 per cent of over-90s are vaccinated, compared to 97 per cent in the South West. At the other end of the scale, 34 per cent of those aged 12-15 have had a jab in London, rising to 50 per cent in the East of England.
One of the biggest gaps is among those aged 18-24, where London’s rates at 58 per cent are 19 points behind the 77 per cent seen in the South West.
 
I was lost by it too, right over my head. There is surely as much built up immunity in this country as South Africa.

There is evidence this will be less severe. I don't think we can keep denying it.
The only evidence which matters at the moment is that it is still going to cause deaths and is spreading incredibly quickly.
 
Still don't think I understand lol
SA hospitalisations are lower with Omicron compared to with Delta because there is more immunity in the population now than when Delta hit. It makes it seem, comparatively, as though Omicron is much less severe, when in reality, it’s just because more people have built up immunity than when Delta was spreading.

In the UK, immunity was already quite high when Delta hit. We still suffered rise in hospitalisations/deaths because of the sheer number of cases. Whitty is saying that we may not see the dramatic difference between figures SA has because we aren’t comparing when we did have immunity to when we didn’t.
 
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