Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[LinekersLegs]

Interesting thread

 

[BlueToff]

There is, and they do. ONS publish data on those who have died where doctor recorded Covid on the death certificate as the primary cause of death, and they also publish monthly excess death numbers in comparison to the 5 year average.

All 3 measures track pretty closely, with some variance, particularly at the outset where the recording was in its’ infancy, so the first wave excess deaths show much higher numbers than the recorded figures. After that, they track pretty well, well enough to have a decent level of confidence in the overall position and trends.

okay, but they still use - on the news - 'died with covid' I believe, and those are the figures published at face value until you dig in on the ONS?

Look, I ain't a conspiracy theorist. COVID is bad, or can be very bad for some people, and it's still here. But it also is what it is and life needs to go on.

 

[Amw79]

okay, but they still use - on the news - 'died with covid' I believe, and those are the figures published at face value until you dig in on the ONS?

Look, I ain't a conspiracy theorist. COVID is bad, or can be very bad for some people, and it's still here. But it also is what it is and life needs to go on.

Nah I know you’re not. But I’ve said on here before that I’m an analyst and work with statistics for my job, so think it triggers me a bit that even 18 months later, this comes up like clockwork, and is often used to insinuate “well cos we know the numbers aren’t perfect we can ignore them, as it’s all rubbish”.

 

[MikeH72]

There is, and they do. ONS publish data on those who have died where doctor recorded Covid on the death certificate as the primary cause of death, and they also publish monthly excess death numbers in comparison to the 5 year average.

All 3 measures track pretty closely, with some variance, particularly at the outset where the recording was in its’ infancy, so the first wave excess deaths show much higher numbers than the recorded figures. After that, they track pretty well, well enough to have a decent level of confidence in the overall position and trends.

I had no idea this data existed. Why are we force fed the “within 28 days” numbers if this more thorough data is available? What is the reason for the media using this?

 

[Sassy Colombian]

A C.D.C. panel endorses Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna boosters for all adults.

It comes just as Americans are preparing to spend holidays with family and friends, gatherings likely to add to rising rates of new cases.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Neiler]

A bit of ICU perspective. Cos the term can create an inaccurate impression. In an ICU, there will be high tech facilities for stuff like really dangerous infectious conditions, isolation units sort of thing. But most beds in any hospital can easily be made into the sort of beds a Covid sufferer would need in an ICU, if that makes sense. Its more the level of nursing care that is the difference between an ICU and "normal" ward.

This is true but there are also other variables to consider when your looking at ICU capacity. Any modern Heath care system won’t have a set number of ICU beds, they will have a baseline minimum and flexibility in the system in terms of surge planning. Why? Because all of the above, they are expensive to operate, the ratio of health care staff to paitient is higher and provision is smaller and more specialist. ICU care is massively specialist and labour intensive - it’s expensive.

In a general sense what most health services do, is they increase and reduce their ICU capacity during the year, for example they will cut ICU provision to its bare bones in Late spring and over the summer then increase it in the winter, to save money. So the figure of access to ICU beds can change.

So this is what happens during a Covid surge, you have a surge plan that essentially works like this. You have your baseline ICU capacity, your winter increase and those beds are manned. As cases of Covid admission increase, this takes up the huge capacity of your normal ICU capacity, keeping in mind these patients need to be separated from others in need of ICU like post op care, Cardio care, accidents etc etc. You have non Covid in need of ICU then Covid in need of ICU. Thats before you look at specialist paediatric ICU. So what happens If you experience a surge in Covid cases and exceed your capacity?

Your surge plan kick in and is activated. You increase the level of surge capacity, non-ICU staff are redeployed to work in intensive care, operation are cancelled, others going into ICU are triaged and decisions often difficult are made on who get access to an ICU bed, normal health care functions are cancelled, ICUs are expanded beyond the normal location in the hospital, and staff-patient ratios increase.

So at level 3 surge, ICU care could be provided in operating theatres (so procedures have to be cancelled), primarily by non-ICU staff.

Because the redeployed staff aren’t trained in ICU card this leads to a significant diminution in quality of care for ICU patients, increased mortality in both Covid and non-Covid patients and an overwhelming impact on all other activities in the hospital, leading to system wide failures in Heath care provision, before you look at the risk to heathcare professionals.

So essentially the health system in terms of broad health care provision grinds to a hault to provide ICU care, staff are redeployed - without the specialist skills to provide care, the level of care drops and leads to poor outcomes.

Taking Ireland as an example last Wednesday there were 288 ICU beds open and staffed, and 279 of them – or 97 per cent – were occupied. Covid patients accounted for 119 of these beds. Just 10 ICU beds were free for adults, and none for children. (Paediatric hospitals have been largely spared Covid admissions, but children are suffering a big surge of other respiratory conditions.)

This is the great fear of governments throughout the world, it’s why we have and are seeing restrictions and lock downs, it’s why surges are so dangerous, with Covid it’s so dangerous you can literally go from 0-100 mph in a week or two. Last Jan was awful, massive surge that almost broke most health services. The full scale trauma I don’t think people will process working in it until this whole risk year in and year out is managed and planned for appropriately.

You can see why health care professionals including myself bang on about restrctions, society is the thin of the wedge, but spending a day in a health care facility last Jan and Feb and you wouldn’t be long about getting a booster, lashing on a mask and showing your phone at the door of the pub.

 

[grandjoeblue]

This is true but there are also other variables to consider when your looking at ICU capacity. Any modern Heath care system won’t have a set number of ICU beds, they will have a baseline minimum and flexibility in the system in terms of surge planning. Why? Because all of the above, they are expensive to operate, the ratio of health care staff to paitient is higher and provision is smaller and more specialist. ICU care is massively specialist and labour intensive - it’s expensive.

In a general sense what most health services do, is they increase and reduce their ICU capacity during the year, for example they will cut ICU provision to its bare bones in Late spring and over the summer then increase it in the winter, to save money. So the figure of access to ICU beds can change.

So this is what happens during a Covid surge, you have a surge plan that essentially works like this. You have your baseline ICU capacity, your winter increase and those beds are manned. As cases of Covid admission increase, this takes up the huge capacity of your normal ICU capacity, keeping in mind these patients need to be separated from others in need of ICU in terms like post op care, Cardio care, accidents etc etc. You have non Covid in need of ICU then Covid in need of ICU. Thats before you look at specialist paediatric ICU. So what happens If you experience a surge in Covid cases and exceed your capacity?

Your surge plan kick in and is activated. You increase the level of surge capacity, non-ICU staff are redeployed to work in intensive care, operation are cancelled, others going into ICU are trusgec and decisions often difficult are made on who get access to an ICU bed, normal health care functions are cancelled, ICUs are expanded beyond the normal location in the hospital, and staff-patient ratios increase.

So at level 3 surge, ICU care could be provided in operating theatres (so procedures have to be cancelled), primarily by non-ICU staff.

Because the redeployed staff aren’t trained in ICU card this leads to a significant diminution in quality of care for ICU patients, increased mortality in both Covid and non-Covid patients and an overwhelming impact on all other activities in the hospital, leading to system wide failures in Heath care provision, before you look at the risk to heathcare professionals.

So essentially the health system in terms of broad health care provision grinds to a hault to provide ICU care, staff are redeployed - without the specialist skills to provide care, the level of care drops and leads to poor outcomes.

Taking Ireland as an example last Wednesday there were 288 ICU beds open and staffed, and 279 of them – or 97 per cent – were occupied. Covid patients accounted for 119 of these beds. Just 10 ICU beds were free for adults, and none for children. (Paediatric hospitals have been largely spared Covid admissions, but children are suffering a big surge of other respiratory conditions.)

This the great fear of governments throughout the world, it’s why we have and are seeing restrictions and lock downs, it’s why surges are so dangerous, with Covid it’s so dangerous you can literally go from 0-100 mph in a week or two. Last Jan was awful, massive surge that almost broke most health services. The full scale trauma I don’t think people will process working in it until this whole risk year in and year out is managed and planned for appropriately.

You can see why health care professionals including myself bang on about restrctions, society is the thin of the wedge, but spreading a day in a health care facility last Jan and Feb and you would be long about getting a booster, lashing on a mask and showing your phone at the door of the pub.

I know it's not a short term answer but training for doctors and nurses should be free. Make them sign a contract that they have to work in the national health service for 5 years or something to make it worthwhile.

ICU capacity in Liverpool is somewhere around 40 I believe. Roughly to cover around 1 million people.

 

[Neiler]

I know it's not a short term answer but training for doctors and nurses should be free. Make them sign a contract that they have to work in the national health service for 5 years or something to make it worthwhile.

ICU capacity in Liverpool is somewhere around 40 I believe. Roughly to cover around 1 million people.

Training and conditions for Doctors and Nurses is disgraceful to be honest, you wouldn’t believe some of the conditions and expectations on them.

Up until very recently Student nurses over here were expected to work during the surge over here for no pay. I worked with student nurses who had done a days work during this as part of their training then went to do another job afterward to bring home a wage for their families.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Wow. Mayhem in Rotterdam!

 

[grandjoeblue]

Wow. Mayhem in Rotterdam!

Can see similar scenes in other countries. With 80%+ vaccinated lockdowns are disgraceful.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Can see similar scenes in other countries. With 80%+ vaccinated lockdowns are disgraceful.

Today they ditched the PCR test option in NL, to enter places. It is 2G now rather than 3G, ie you will be allowed only if you have a proof of vaccine or immunity pass. PCR no longer works.

Unreal stuff.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Can see similar scenes in other countries. With 80%+ vaccinated lockdowns are disgraceful.

You can disagree with their approach but this is the context that they are working with.

Facing new COVID wave, Dutch delay care for cancer, heart patients

Dutch healthcare officials said on Friday they have begun delaying operations for some cancer and heart patients to free up space in intensive care units during a record wave of COVID-19 infections.

www.reuters.com

AMSTERDAM, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Dutch healthcare officials said on Friday they have begun delaying operations for some cancer and heart patients to free up space in intensive care units during a record wave of COVID-19 infections.

"These are cancer patients that should actually be operated on within six weeks of diagnosis, and that won't be met in all cases. It's also heart patients," said a spokesperson for LCPS, the national organisation that allocates hospital resources.….

With fewer than 200 beds remaining in Dutch ICU as of Thursday, hospitals are scrambling to add more capacity.

 

[grandjoeblue]

You can disagree with their approach but this is the context that they are working with.

Facing new COVID wave, Dutch delay care for cancer, heart patients

Dutch healthcare officials said on Friday they have begun delaying operations for some cancer and heart patients to free up space in intensive care units during a record wave of COVID-19 infections.

www.reuters.com

AMSTERDAM, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Dutch healthcare officials said on Friday they have begun delaying operations for some cancer and heart patients to free up space in intensive care units during a record wave of COVID-19 infections.

"These are cancer patients that should actually be operated on within six weeks of diagnosis, and that won't be met in all cases. It's also heart patients," said a spokesperson for LCPS, the national organisation that allocates hospital resources.

The winter will show how effective these vaccines are. Cases have exploded over there, maybe they should have opened up in the summer to make it manageable.

 

[Deckard2049]

Can see similar scenes in other countries. With 80%+ vaccinated lockdowns are disgraceful.

We’re at a point we’re millions of people are being punished with lockdowns because our healthcare systems are underfunded.

I hope there’s more protests all around the globe. It’s been nearly two years lol. Two years to slow the spread. No wonder people are rioting.

 

[LinekersLegs]

We’re at a point we’re millions of people are being punished with lockdowns because our healthcare systems are underfunded.

I hope there’s more protests all around the globe. It’s been nearly two years lol. Two years to slow the spread. No wonder people are rioting.

Instead of rioting it would be a bit more constructive to demand more investment in the healthcare systems and vote out those that have systematically underfunded it.