Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[verreauxi]

 

[tsubaki]

Brisbane are locked down, Sydney have had theirs extended till the 28th, parts of NSW are on restriction

Here we are fully open

Australia is not NZ

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

I initially thought, this is an interesting video and it highlights how statistics can be misconstrued, however, he does just take some random numbers to make a point. So I decided to do his maths but with the UK numbers, and the results are interesting.

Now I could only find the data for the delta variant - https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

If anyone has the data for standard strain send it over.

From this data set you can see (for people who have had two jabs) ;

P(infected | Vaccinated) = 474 / 28,773 = 1.647%
P(infected | Not Vaccinated) = 1,301 / 121,402 = 1.07%

So this suggests that people who are double jabbed actually have a higher hospitalization rate compared to no jabs, with the caveat this is only for delta variant.

The results are not what I expected.

 

[BlueToff]

they aren't being shut in for weeks at a time; we are

Sydney has been in lockdown for 4-5 weeks now and is going to be in lockdown for another 4

when you add up the snap lockdowns they’ve had, and the ones last year, certain regions/cities will have had a fair few months

nobody is disputing that they handled it brilliantly at first, but there’s no way 18 months in they should be having snap lockdowns some of which are going to last 8 weeks, is there?

NZ of course very different. They do have the same issue with vaccine hesitancy but they’re in a much better place from which to get out of that, and they’ve only really had to do snap lockdowns in Auckland as far as I’m aware (but that’s cause half of the population lives there)

 

[tsubaki]

Sydney has been in lockdown for 4-5 weeks now and is going to be in lockdown for another 4

when you add up the snap lockdowns they’ve had, and the ones last year, certain regions/cities will have had a fair few months

nobody is disputing that they handled it brilliantly at first, but there’s no way 18 months in they should be having snap lockdowns some of which are going to last 8 weeks, is there?

NZ of course very different. They do have the same issue with vaccine hesitancy but they’re in a much better place from which to get out of that, and they’ve only really had to do snap lockdowns in Auckland as far as I’m aware (but that’s cause half of the population lives there)

sadly the mother country (and others) has not handled this as well as they have, so they've had to do this

 

[Tipp blue]

I initially thought, this is an interesting video and it highlights how statistics can be misconstrued, however, he does just take some random numbers to make a point. So I decided to do his maths but with the UK numbers, and the results are interesting.

Now I could only find the data for the delta variant - https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

If anyone has the data for standard strain send it over.

From this data set you can see (for people who have had two jabs) ;

P(infected | Vaccinated) = 474 / 28,773 = 1.647%
P(infected | Not Vaccinated) = 1,301 / 121,402 = 1.07%

So this suggests that people who are double jabbed actually have a higher hospitalization rate compared to no jabs, with the caveat this is only for delta variant.

The results are not what I expected.

Just because they are in hospital it doesn't mean they are in because of covid.. could be in with another ailment and then test positive in a hospital routine test and now they are a covid positive person in hospital.. the government in Ireland have asked for the hospitalised to be categorised into those positive but not being treated for covid and those who are in due to covid.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

Just because they are in hospital it doesn't mean they are in because of covid.. could be in with another ailment and then test positive in a hospital routine test and now they are a covid positive person in hospital.. the government in Ireland have asked for the hospitalised to be categorised into those positive but not being treated for covid and those who are in due to covid.

Yes, if you look at the link I provided, there are exemptions for this. In one row there are the hospital admissions directly due to covid and one where they are submitted to hospital for something else and then test positive whilst they are there.

For my calculations I only used the data set for those who were taken to hospital directly due to covid.

 

[BlueToff]

sadly the mother country (and others) has not handled this as well as they have, so they've had to do this

the mother country?

I'm talking about Aus here. They handled it brilliantly - harshly, mind, but brilliantly - at first.

But it was always going to come back and spike and their government failed to buck up and get the vaccine roll out sorted when they could have done.

that's forced regions to go into statewide or currently city wide lockdowns.

My mate was in Aus last year, came back in August, just after a lockdown in Victoria for a handful of cases. He was 8 hours away from Melbourne, where the cases were, in the middle of nowhere, and 10 mins away from the NSW border, and couldn't leave the hostel he was in for 2 weeks. Hence he binned it off and came home as soon as he could.

For any developed country to be doing snap lockdowns now is ludicrous (and it would be if England/Scotland/Wales went back into one)

 

[grandjoeblue]

the mother country?

I'm talking about Aus here. They handled it brilliantly - harshly, mind, but brilliantly - at first.

But it was always going to come back and spike and their government failed to buck up and get the vaccine roll out sorted when they could have done.

that's forced regions to go into statewide or currently city wide lockdowns.

My mate was in Aus last year, came back in August, just after a lockdown in Victoria for a handful of cases. He was 8 hours away from Melbourne, where the cases were, in the middle of nowhere, and 10 mins away from the NSW border, and couldn't leave the hostel he was in for 2 weeks. Hence he binned it off and came home as soon as he could.

For any developed country to be doing snap lockdowns now is ludicrous (and it would be if England/Scotland/Wales went back into one)

Various parts of Australia have been in horrendous lockdowns for large periods of time.

Covid will still be here in 50 year times. Its now very clear that life has to return to normal and that the zero covid policies are impossible.

I still find mask policy in the UK very odd. The other night I went the cinema, a restaurant and a pub and I didn't put a mask on the whole night, I didn't see anyone in any of the places with a mask. The next day I went to a shop to buy milk, mask required and signs everywhere. Scientifically it just doesn't align.

 

[tsubaki]

the mother country?

I'm talking about Aus here. They handled it brilliantly - harshly, mind, but brilliantly - at first.

But it was always going to come back and spike and their government failed to buck up and get the vaccine roll out sorted when they could have done.

that's forced regions to go into statewide or currently city wide lockdowns.

My mate was in Aus last year, came back in August, just after a lockdown in Victoria for a handful of cases. He was 8 hours away from Melbourne, where the cases were, in the middle of nowhere, and 10 mins away from the NSW border, and couldn't leave the hostel he was in for 2 weeks. Hence he binned it off and came home as soon as he could.

For any developed country to be doing snap lockdowns now is ludicrous (and it would be if England/Scotland/Wales went back into one)

Not really. You are making the mistake that our government is, that they can sort out the vaccines and then no restrictions will ever be required again. That is the ludicrous thing here, that people are trying to find ways in which failed policies can be made to work, rather than going with policies that actually worked.

 

[BlueToff]

Not really. You are making the mistake that our government is, that they can sort out the vaccines and then no restrictions will ever be required again. That is the ludicrous thing here, that people are trying to find ways in which failed policies can be made to work, rather than going with policies that actually worked.

Policies that worked involved restricting people’s lives, movements, banning travel and costing jobs
Do you actually think that’s a better option than vaccinating ?

 

[grandjoeblue]

Policies that worked involved restricting people’s lives, movements, banning travel and costing jobs
Do you actually think that’s a better option than vaccinating ?

Very true. Its clear for all to see the only route forward now is vaccination.

People talk about 'track and trace' but other than isolation states like NZ and Aus this hasn't been particularly effective anywhere in the world.

 

[BlueToff]

Very true. Its clear for all to see the only route forward now is vaccination.

People talk about 'track and trace' but other than isolation states like NZ and Aus this hasn't been particularly effective anywhere in the world.

And now Aus and, to a lesser extent I think, NZ, are seeing the limits to that too. It's not a sustainable solution.

It can certainly be an option to keep there to prevent further outbreaks down the line, in very specific circumstances, but it's in no way a better option than getting people vaccinated.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I initially thought, this is an interesting video and it highlights how statistics can be misconstrued, however, he does just take some random numbers to make a point. So I decided to do his maths but with the UK numbers, and the results are interesting.

Now I could only find the data for the delta variant - https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

If anyone has the data for standard strain send it over.

From this data set you can see (for people who have had two jabs) ;

P(infected | Vaccinated) = 474 / 28,773 = 1.647%
P(infected | Not Vaccinated) = 1,301 / 121,402 = 1.07%

So this suggests that people who are double jabbed actually have a higher hospitalization rate compared to no jabs, with the caveat this is only for delta variant.

The results are not what I expected.

It is a reflection of the age profiles of who is double jabbed as it isn't even across the population - if you split it up by the ages

Under 50s
Vaccinated 103 / 15,346 = 0.67%
Unvaccinated 1105 / 119,063 = 0.93%

Over 50s
Vaccinated 371 / 13,427 = 2.75%
Unvaccinated 196 / 2,337 = 8.39%

So in both categories the unvaccinated are more likely to end up hospitalized but it still the case that a double jabbed 80 year old is more likely to get hospitalized if they catch COVID than an unvaccinated 20 year old.

I'd guess there is also some distortion in the under 50s percentages too in that those with risk factors eg asthma are probably more likely to have been vaccinated than those who consider themselves healthy but who are the same age.

 

[tsubaki]

Policies that worked involved restricting people’s lives, movements, banning travel and costing jobs
Do you actually think that’s a better option than vaccinating ?

No - I think its not a case of one or the other. Allowing this thing to spread is bad, results in bad outcomes and will (if we are unlucky enough to end up with a vaccine-resistant variant soon) put us back in lockdown again.