Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Why does anyone give this Ferguson guy any oxygen…..

“Nate Silver, one of the world's most renowned forecasters, has criticised Prof Neil Ferguson for his "overconfident" prediction that Covid cases could rise to 100,000 a day.

Mr Silver, a statistician who rose to prominence after correctly calling the results of the 2008 US presidential election, said there were too many variables in the pandemic for anyone to be certain of the outcome.

This week, Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College, said he was positive the crisis would be in decline by the autumn, despite warning earlier in the month that it was "almost inevitable" that there would soon be 100,000 cases a day and possibly 200,000.

Writing on Twitter, Mr Silver said: "Covid cases have fallen to 33,000 per day (7-day average) since Neil Ferguson, perhaps the UK's most prominent epidemiologist, said it was 'almost inevitable' that cases would hit 100,000 a day.

"I don't care that the prediction is wrong, I'm sure this stuff is hard to predict. It's that he's consistently so overconfident. Now he says he's 'positive' the pandemic will be over by October. Well, probably. But there are downside risks: new variants, waning immunity, etc."…..

Was listening to a theory by an immunologist earlier on the U.K. spike, he looked at variables around the UKs fluctuating figures, he therosied that hitting the 40k mark was a false spike brought in by increased socialisation during the Euros, that saw cases rise to 30k-40k peak. He put forward the theory that the U.K. has returned to its mean now since it’s ended. Essentially the Euros was a cultural and social anomaly for infection rates and what we are seeing now in regression is a return to mean. All theory of course.
 
Showing you are a registered Republican would make it a good chance!

The uninsured under 65 category surprises me. Even though it probably wouldn’t be astronomically expensive if people were asked to pay out of pocket for it, this vaccine may literally be the only truly free health care most Americans will ever have access to. Seems like people would want to take advantage.
 
Was listening to a theory by an immunologist earlier on the U.K. spike, he looked at variables around the UKs fluctuating figures, he therosied that hitting the 40k mark was a false spike brought in by increased socialisation during the Euros, that saw cases rise to 30k-40k peak. He put forward the theory that the U.K. has returned to its mean now since it’s ended. Essentially the Euros was a cultural and social anomaly for infection rates and what we are seeing now in regression is a return to mean. All theory of course.
I think this is very similar to what was seen in Scotland. There were spikes, especially after the England Scotland game which saw thousands come to London and have zero respect for social distancing. The rates since then have dropped loads after the got knocked out of the tournament
 
The uninsured under 65 category surprises me. Even though it probably wouldn’t be astronomically expensive if people were asked to pay out of pocket for it, this vaccine may literally be the only truly free health care most Americans will ever have access to. Seems like people would want to take advantage.
From some other surveys three issues regularly pop up
a) they don’t believe it is free
b) they don’t have a regular doctor who they trust who could inform/encourage/reassure them
c) they are worried that the side effects will mean they have to miss work and they need the income or just the time to get the vaccine if they are juggling multiple jobs.
 
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