Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Good cover for the debacle that Brexit has very predictably become, suck it up butter cups, Boris is getting your Brexit done.
Best of the bunch is the honest assessment. Drip drip it will come, every time they deny what Cummings has said, every time he will produce the evidence! Can't say I'm not enjoying it.
Six months ago Cummings was the devil incarnate to the lefties.
Now he's their working class hero... Laughable.
Can't say I'm not enjoying it.
 
I hate to say it but I think we are being mugged off by our scientists and Sage at the moment. We show a small rise in infections but we currently test more than Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Poland and the USA combined each day. Deaths in the U.K. however are averaging about 8 compared to, 83, 61, 59, 61, 53 and 341 respectively. So are we over-testing or are everyone else under-testing. While I have no particular issue with the delay, I think Boris needs to stop all the Sage members from frightening the populace, because no doubt yet another new variant is just around the corner and it won’t be killing us all either, because of the inoculations.....
There may be some testing distortion but it isn’t all down to that Pete.

Positivity rate is a good way to exclude that and at least parts of UK are over the recommended maximum 5% rate - Manchester reported this
“Of the 15,579 PCR tests conducted, 7.8% resulted in a positive diagnosis. This compares with 3.7% of tests conducted in the previous weeks. “

In contrast here in California positively is 0.7% currently

Deaths is a very lagging indicator, especially given that this wave seems to be impacting younger people who will presumably be able to fight for longer than an already frail 80 year old.
 
The only part-truth of that statement is that the extreme right do actually hate Johnson these days, mostly due to lockdowns and Bill Gates computer chips or something, I dunno, but yes they aren't fans.

But of course, they then equate that to the left loving him, because everything they hate the left obviously loves.

Do they? I mean we’ve not had the death threats against Johnson, significant RW demos against him, nor has there been a collapse in his polls, nor even have the cretinry on here had a pop at him (as opposed to “politicians” or the government).
 
There may be some testing distortion but it isn’t all down to that Pete.

Positivity rate is a good way to exclude that and at least parts of UK are over the recommended maximum 5% rate - Manchester reported this
“Of the 15,579 PCR tests conducted, 7.8% resulted in a positive diagnosis. This compares with 3.7% of tests conducted in the previous weeks. “

In contrast here in California positively is 0.7% currently

Deaths is a very lagging indicator, especially given that this wave seems to be impacting younger people who will presumably be able to fight for longer than an already frail 80 year old.

I agree that deaths are a lagging indicator, but we are seeing almost no upward movement. The USA is about x5 or x6 the size of the U.K. but U.K. deaths are averaging 8-10 so the USA should be seeing 50-60 not over 300. I can accept that instances of positive test results are going up, but again the U.K. does about x3 the number of tests per day that the USA does, at a similar rate the USA would be doing 5 Million a day. Our hospitalisations are minimal as are those in ICU’s, so what is really going on. The younger and non inoculated people may well be catching this variant, but it would appear that it is not doing them much harm, in which case what is the issue.....
 
I agree that deaths are a lagging indicator, but we are seeing almost no upward movement. The USA is about x5 or x6 the size of the U.K. but U.K. deaths are averaging 8-10 so the USA should be seeing 50-60 not over 300. I can accept that instances of positive test results are going up, but again the U.K. does about x3 the number of tests per day that the USA does, at a similar rate the USA would be doing 5 Million a day. Our hospitalisations are minimal as are those in ICU’s, so what is really going on. The younger and non inoculated people may well be catching this variant, but it would appear that it is not doing them much harm, in which case what is the issue.....
It is superb that UK deaths are not going up significantly and hopefully with the excellent vaccination coverage in seniors that will remain the case. However the earlier indicators of both cases and hospitalizations are going up, in some places there has been significant growth.

Thankfully it is from a low base but still - it indicates an issue if the trend continues that about 5% of cases end up hospitalized even if that stay ends up with a happier outcome than in previous waves. Especially as the NHS is currently working through a backlog of non COVID work and has little spare capacity.

The positivity rate % is not particularly influenced by the number of tests - New Delhi had an awful wave and was barely doing any testing yet those tests they were doing resulted in a positivity rate of 50% reflecting the virus was extremely widespread in the population. Manchester doubling its rate, whilst no where near India outbreak levels, is still indicative of an issue that is not test related.

If it happens would you think 300 admissions per day was a bit worrying?
 

It's interesting that they're able to do this with the same supply - I'm presuming this will largely be down to their smaller population (a third the size of London), but would be interesting to see if operationally they're doing anything majorly different to the rest of the UK.
 
It's interesting that they're able to do this with the same supply - I'm presuming this will largely be down to their smaller population (a third the size of London), but would be interesting to see if operationally they're doing anything majorly different to the rest of the UK.
A few things seems to be involved but a calculated gamble on smooth supply seems to be the main one.
 
It is superb that UK deaths are not going up significantly and hopefully with the excellent vaccination coverage in seniors that will remain the case. However the earlier indicators of both cases and hospitalizations are going up, in some places there has been significant growth.

Thankfully it is from a low base but still - it indicates an issue if the trend continues that about 5% of cases end up hospitalized even if that stay ends up with a happier outcome than in previous waves. Especially as the NHS is currently working through a backlog of non COVID work and has little spare capacity.

The positivity rate % is not particularly influenced by the number of tests - New Delhi had an awful wave and was barely doing any testing yet those tests they were doing resulted in a positivity rate of 50% reflecting the virus was extremely widespread in the population. Manchester doubling its rate, whilst no where near India outbreak levels, is still indicative of an issue that is not test related.

If it happens would you think 300 admissions per day was a bit worrying?


The figures shown for Manchester, I’m not sure about, but the positivity rate for the U.K. is about 0.7%....some 6,400 positive results versus 932,568 tests performed...as I say, I’m not too concerned about a delay, but I fear we are being bounced into it on the back of numbers that aren’t stacking up......
 
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