Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

I don't get how this Indian variant is 80% more transmissible but has only spread in the UK and India. The Kent one spread pretty quickly through a lot of countries and if this one is 80% more transmissible surely it should be even worse?

We’ve got big communities with ancestral links to the subcontinent (so we were always likely to be one of the first to get this appear after the subcontinent), but we also basically supercharged its arrival with the hotel quarantine for arrivals from Pakistan and Bangladesh but not India for nearly a fortnight (which was a disaster given India was worse than either of the others at the time, and it gave people a big incentive to fly in indirect routes back, including from India itself).

We’ve also, as I’ve repeatedly said, still got no effective track and trace system so any variant is going to be able to spread here; indeed from the utterances of Johnson et al they do not appear to see variants spreading as a problem.

 

[TaffyToffee85]

I think in terms of effective testing and tracing, they absolutely are.

People do forget that although the UK is doing lots of tests many of them (probably the majority) are hospitals, workplaces or schools screening.

…. and knocking on people’s doors or dropping testing kits outside their houses regardless if they have symptoms or not. In other countries it’s only people coming forward for testing if they have symptoms.

 

[grandjoeblue]

…. and knocking on people’s doors or dropping testing kits outside their houses regardless if they have symptoms or not. In other countries it’s only people coming forward for testing if they have symptoms.

@tsubaki may disagree with this but the UK has by far the best test and trace system in Europe. Nowhere else is testing anywhere near as much and nowhere else targets hot spots (Sefton, Bolton, Blackburn are recent examples).

I completely agree with him that open borders with India wasn't a smart move but the track and trace isn't the cause of the problem on this occasion.

 

[TaffyToffee85]

The week up to the 4th June (ONS weeks work differently), there were 108 registered deaths and the third lowest week since the whole thing began. This was two more than the previous seven day timeframe.

Data has context and from what I’ve read this variant only gives the symptoms of a typical cold with headaches included. Although we are seeing 7,000 a day, it has to be looked into how many of those are only having mild symptoms.

It is with this they don’t need to go to hospital, but if they do it’s only a short stay, which makes the hospital figures in turn needed to be studied in context also.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

What happens when the next variant pops up? and the one after that?

Im all for the June date being moved to July to try get as many first doses done but after that we need to get back to as much normal as possible.

 

[BlueToff]

And then the rapid spread can lead to a new variant... potentially evades vaccines more... the cycle repeats. Very frustrating - agreed... it's like they aren't learning their lessons.

Well, we've just stopped the reopening so it does appear they are?

It's crap, and they probably shouldn't have put a date on it - but then again, that would have created more uncertainty so wouldn't have helped people either - and now it's been pushed back.

I just think, in the UK anyway, they need to be clear that masks etc will be mandatory in shops and on transport etc for a long, long while. Again, it's crap, but it's hardly the worst thing in the world. If that trade off can be that you don't have to wear a mask going to a gig, and that people can go to matches again etc, and we don't have to shut down over winter (I have no doubt that certain large indoor events won't go ahead until early 2022 though and that outdoor events will be capped at lower capacity during the winter months), then they'd probably take it.

 

[tsubaki]

@tsubaki may disagree with this but the UK has by far the best test and trace system in Europe. Nowhere else is testing anywhere near as much and nowhere else targets hot spots (Sefton, Bolton, Blackburn are recent examples).

I completely agree with him that open borders with India wasn't a smart move but the track and trace isn't the cause of the problem on this occasion.

We absolutely don’t. We are doing loads of tests, but as mentioned earlier a lot of these are screening tests for people going into hospital, schools and workplaces. They often aren’t targeted at people who are at specific risk because of recent contacts.

In terms of identifying outbreaks, we’ve consistently failed to get the focus of testing narrow enough to identify events and locations where people have been put at risk and n time to do something about it - that’s why locations at risk that you list are at the city / region level, rather than individual premises.

 

[BlueToff]

The week up to the 4th June (ONS weeks work differently), there were 108 registered deaths and the third lowest week since the whole thing began. This was two more than the previous seven day timeframe.

Data has context and from what I’ve read this variant only gives the symptoms of a typical cold with headaches included. Although we are seeing 7,000 a day, it has to be looked into how many of those are only having mild symptoms.

It is with this they don’t need to go to hospital, but if they do it’s only a short stay, which makes the hospital figures in turn needed to be studied in context also.

Yep, another thing being missed. Hospital stays are very short, and that's because the capacity is there and in general it's younger, 'healthier' people getting it and ending up in hospital.

If this 4 week delay helps us stave off a third wave, then it's the right thing to do. But they have to make the time count.

 

[BlueToff]

We absolutely don’t. We are doing loads of tests, but as mentioned earlier a lot of these are screening tests for people going into hospital, schools and workplaces. They often aren’t targeted at people who are at specific risk because of recent contacts.

In terms of identifying outbreaks, we’ve consistently failed to get the focus of testing narrow enough to identify events and locations where people have been put at risk and n time to do something about it - that’s why locations at risk that you list are at the city / region level, rather than individual premises.

My mate is currently in self-isolation because he had a close contact (someone he plays hockey with) test positive. He's tested negative twice but because I've been in contact with him I also had to get tested and have tested negative (as of Sunday). He'll be isolating until the weekend though if he develops symptoms/tests positive, I'll have to isolate too.

Got two work colleagues who have gone through isolation in recent weeks too for similar examples and another friend who has just spent the last week in isolation as well (think she tested positive, though).

Isn't that an example of it working, to an extent? It's just very reliant on people following it and it is extremely hard on people to have to do, mentally etc.

 

[tsubaki]

…. and knocking on people’s doors or dropping testing kits outside their houses regardless if they have symptoms or not. In other countries it’s only people coming forward for testing if they have symptoms.

The latter is a much more effective way of testing though, providing the response of quick enough.

 

[tsubaki]

My mate is currently in self-isolation because he had a close contact (someone he plays hockey with) test positive. He's tested negative twice but because I've been in contact with him I also had to get tested and have tested negative (as of Sunday). He'll be isolating until the weekend though if he develops symptoms/tests positive, I'll have to isolate too.

Got two work colleagues who have gone through isolation in recent weeks too for similar examples and another friend who has just spent the last week in isolation as well (think she tested positive, though).

Isn't that an example of it working, to an extent? It's just very reliant on people following it and it is extremely hard on people to have to do, mentally etc.

That is absolutely what should be happening, but it’s not anywhere near enough (or quickly enough).

 

[BlueToff]

…. and knocking on people’s doors or dropping testing kits outside their houses regardless if they have symptoms or not. In other countries it’s only people coming forward for testing if they have symptoms.

Well that and being able to order the test kits online.

 

[BlueToff]

That is absolutely what should be happening, but it’s not anywhere near enough (or quickly enough).

Well I've listed four examples there of people that I know and this is all in the last 2 weeks (one of the lads I mentioned who I work with was told to isolate a few days after getting back from Porto as he was out covering the CL final there - even though he'd obviously done all the tests to get back into Britain etc. Think at that point Portugal was on the green list so he didn't have to isolate on return, he just had to get the negative PCR test).

In regards to doing it quicker. In the example of my friend, the app told him as soon as his close contact had tested positive – he actually said he got the text from the app before his mate from hockey told the group chat, obviously the app didn't tell him who'd tested positive or anything like that, it just then became clear it was his hockey mate.

Obviously he had to tell me, though, because we'd been for an outdoor coffee last Friday and he found out on Saturday that he was isolating - he'd been playing hockey on Thursday.

So how can it be quicker? I'm not saying it shouldn't be, but in this example, surely it can only become 'quicker' if everybody in the entire country is testing themselves every day? And is that really what we want?

 

[Tramps_mate]

Talk radio were just saying. Excess deaths are currently below the 5 year average. Covid hospitalisations are 1% of current admissions. And yesterday there were 3 'covid' deaths from a total England daily deaths of around 1400...

Figures are so tiny currently. If these dont change much, they have to lift the restrictions in 4 weeks time surely!

 

[grandjoeblue]

We absolutely don’t. We are doing loads of tests, but as mentioned earlier a lot of these are screening tests for people going into hospital, schools and workplaces. They often aren’t targeted at people who are at specific risk because of recent contacts.

In terms of identifying outbreaks, we’ve consistently failed to get the focus of testing narrow enough to identify events and locations where people have been put at risk and n time to do something about it - that’s why locations at risk that you list are at the city / region level, rather than individual premises.

Anyone can get tests sent to their house for free in this country. The tories have messed up throughout including recently with the India issues but I do think its hard to get a more complete test and trace system.