Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

Was she? In what way?

all over the place - I mean, here Scally says:

That is how we deal successfully with other dangerous infectious diseases. Elimination is often confused with eradication, which means no cases occur anywhere in the world, so countries can drop all preventive measures. Eradication of the virus entirely is unfortunately not achievable in the foreseeable future. But we can and should aim to prevent cases within the UK from spreading.

As vaccination continues to deliver substantial reductions in deaths, we need to think ahead about what measures will be required to stop sporadic outbreaks or resurgence. Continued protection against new variants may necessitate the development of modified vaccines.

There will also be a continuing requirement for social and economic restrictions until cases fall to a very low level, particularly because there is no vaccine yet proved safe for under-18s. And even after they are lifted generally, there must be a willingness to reintroduce restrictions locally or nationally if needed. We must rebuild our depleted public health system in local areas across England to help rapidly suppress future outbreaks, which will also stand us in good stead for dealing with future infectious threats. It might additionally help the UK regain its standing as a country that eliminated measles, a status we lost in 2016.
The benefits of taking the elimination route are obvious. By preventing ongoing transmission, we will avoid developing a dangerous home-grown variant. The more countries we can co-operate with in taking this route, the safer the world becomes.

to which she replies:

The vaccines have shown high efficacy against severe disease, and the indications are that this will hold for new variants. By using them to protect the vulnerable and letting natural immunity accumulate among those who are not especially at risk, we can avoid the unconscionable collateral damage caused by indefinite suppression, while also minimising Covid deaths.

Elimination is neither feasible nor necessary. The likelihood is that this virus will settle to the stable state characteristic of the seasonal coronaviruses currently in circulation (mainly causing common colds), where maintenance of herd immunity through natural infection keeps the risk among vulnerable populations low. To rely instead on lockdowns and border closures constitutes a profound dereliction of duty towards those most affected by such actions—the underprivileged and the young—across the world.

Scally was clearly not saying he was relying on lockdowns or border closures; he was saying we have to have a good public health system to help contain outbreaks and that we should admit that we might have to do local or national lockdowns if needed.

Later he says the same sort of thing:

Yes, we have had too many lockdowns. We need to use vaccination, nationally and globally, to suppress the virus. And if the UK had a coherent strategy, which it doesn’t, elimination would be at its core. In addition to vaccination, we need an effective local health infrastructure to damp down flare-ups and keep the virus under control: with that comes the chance to understand the virus better and maintain stability into the future. We cannot afford to take a chance on theoretical musings—as the government did a year ago with its deeply flawed herd immunity approach that let the virus rip. We have been through enough. It’s time to eliminate this virus, just as we have done with many others.

to which Gupta again pretends he is only talking about lockdowns:

In any case, the arguments against elimination as a strategy are neither novel nor esoteric, but based on basic epidemiology and pre-existing public health recommendations. It is the strategy of enforced lockdowns that should be regarded as unconventional and subject to scrutiny, given how ineffective lockdowns have been. Governments chose to pursue these measures rather than the focused protection of older, high-risk people—and still failed to eliminate Covid. Meanwhile they inflicted great economic, social and health damage. Elimination is, frankly, dangerous compared to the safer and better understood approach of targeted protection.

Honestly suggesting that elimination is dangerous is, to recycle a word, dangerous.

That policy of hers would have killed hundreds of thousands of people here; indeed it might have killed tens of thousands if she was one of the people the government have been listening to. (edit) All she seems to be doing here is banging her GBD drum - saying that the economic damage caused this year was worse than letting hundreds of thousands of people die.

 

[Wizard]

Any data from occurrences in the states?

Been trying to find any occupancies with Sputnik, but not wholly surprising, count find any.

According to this 3 of the 4 cases were in the US. Important to say again though these are tiny numbers. Only one person died. But good that they are finding them and looking into them so we can learn going forward and hopefully mitigate the risk.

EU agency examines reports of blood clots with J&J Covid vaccine

EMA says four serious cases reported, one fatal, and also expands inquiry into AstraZeneca vaccine

www.theguardian.com

 

[davek]

all over the place - I mean, here Scally says:



to which she replies:



Scally was clearly not saying he was relying on lockdowns or border closures; he was saying we have to have a good public health system to help contain outbreaks and that we should admit that we might have to do local or national lockdowns if needed.

Later he says the same sort of thing:



to which Gupta again pretends he is only talking about lockdowns:



Honestly suggesting that elimination is dangerous is, to recycle a word, dangerous.

That policy of hers would have killed hundreds of thousands of people here; indeed it might have killed tens of thousands if she was one of the people the government have been listening to. (edit) All she seems to be doing here is banging her GBD drum - saying that the economic damage caused this year was worse than letting hundreds of thousands of people die.

Ok, yeah. I take your point. There was a lot of talking past each other.

However, the 'takeaway' is that one sees suppression as the only way of safely dealing with the virus while the other sees that approach as an overemphasis on the virus to the exclusion of all else. It's a difference of philosophy on the crisis.

 

[Goat]

Ok, yeah. I take your point. There was a lot of talking past each other.

However, the 'takeaway' is that one sees suppression as the only way of safely dealing with the virus while the other sees that approach as an overemphasis on the virus to the exclusion of all else. It's a difference of philosophy on the crisis.

Evening Toffee, you got your beer garden booked for Monday?

 

[davek]

Evening Toffee, you got your beer garden booked for Monday?

Hope it pisses down.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Any data from occurrences in the states?

Been trying to find any occupancies with Sputnik, but not wholly surprising, count find any.

There weren’t any particular red flags during the trials (although I think one of the 14 was a young man who died and is part of the EMA investigation data)

Health experts give green light to Janssen COVID jab, allay clotting concerns​

The Janssen COVID-19 vaccine was publicly approved for international use on Wednesday by UN health agency expert advisory board, SAGE, which allayed concerns over clotting events being associated by some countries, without definitive evidence, with coronavirus jabs.

news.un.org
During trials for the Janssen vaccine involving nearly 44,000 people, 10 of the 22,000 people who received the blank dose developed a blood clot – or thrombo-embolic events - while 14 of the remaining 22,000 who were inoculated, developed a clot. “This is about the same”, for both groups said Dr Annelies Wilder-Smith, SAGE Technical Advisor. “There’s a slight imbalance, but it’s still not statistically significant,”

It has been halted in a couple of places but these seem more due to allergic reactions or a corrupted batch rather than the blood clots

 

[tsubaki]

Ok, yeah. I take your point. There was a lot of talking past each other.

However, the 'takeaway' is that one sees suppression as the only way of safely dealing with the virus while the other sees that approach as an overemphasis on the virus to the exclusion of all else. It's a difference of philosophy on the crisis.

TBF I think that is to draw too much equivalence between what they are saying, as if they might both be right.

I mean, he is (seemingly) honestly stating what his views are; she is not - what she appears to be implying there is that this virus (and possibly all similar threats) should be allowed to do their thing.

We know what allowing this to spread across the country unchallenged would have done; yet she never mentioned it.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Definitely I plan to wear one going on. I don’t mind them at all, actually feels weird when I don’t have one on now - wear them all day in work like. But it’s seriously brought home to us how important they could be to transmissible respiratory disease especially in season, essentially no flu at all this year.

I hadn’t realised how much I touched my face before!!!

I’ll definitely wear one travelling from now on, not only to help reduce the chance of me spreading my germs to others but as a reminder to keep my hands away from my damn face lol

 

[LinekersLegs]

Wow, thats quite striking data symptomatically and in terms of profile.

I wonder has anyone looked at counterindicators or correlations, maybe the contraceptive pill.

That is an obvious avenue (especially given the blood clot risks that come with the pill anyway) .

But going to be an interesting data analysis exercise as the European data is going to be skewed from restricting the AZ to younger age groups and in occupations (medical and teaching) that have a lot of women.

 

[davek]

TBF I think that is to draw too much equivalence between what they are saying, as if they might both be right.

I mean, he is (seemingly) honestly stating what his views are; she is not - what she appears to be implying there is that this virus (and possibly all similar threats) should be allowed to do their thing.

We know what allowing this to spread across the country unchallenged would have done; yet she never mentioned it.

Spot on.

Gupta's dismissal of track and trace was particularly witless.

But its people like her that can give cover to politicians and corporates who just dont give a flying one about getting on top of this and keeping on top of it.

 

[Wizard]

Definitely I plan to wear one going on. I don’t mind them at all, actually feels weird when I don’t have one on now - wear them all day in work like. But it’s seriously brought home to us how important they could be to transmissible respiratory disease especially in season, essentially no flu at all this year.

I hadn’t realised how much I touched my face before!!!

I’ll definitely wear one travelling from now on, not only to help reduce the chance of me spreading my germs to others but as a reminder to keep my hands away from my damn face lol

I think I will too as I'm really not bothered by it anymore. Weird thing for me is I have quite a big beard and often play with it without realising. A couple of friends have called me up on it in the past so probably a good thing I have a barrier to stop that a bit more now. Got to take the small wins from covid

 

[Goat]

Biden’s Orphaned AstraZeneca Stockpile Grows to 20 Million Doses

AstraZeneca has yet to request U.S. authorisation for the two-dose vaccine as it faces safety questions abroad.

www.bloombergquint.com

 

[Deckard2049]

Honestly I’m a solid 9/10 so I think it would be wrong for me to have to wear a mask in public for any longer than a mandate requires.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Honestly I’m a solid 9/10 so I think it would be wrong for me to have to wear a mask in public for any longer than a mandate requires.

Find them anti social and a pain in trying to speak to someone / understand them.

Soon as everyone's vaccinated they should be chucked out.