Spot on Toff
Tuesday 10th March, the stats team from Imperial college London, were telling SAGE that, on the infection chart, we were 4-6 weeks behind Italy.
Friday 13th March, SAGE became aware that ICL were working on data that was 2 weeks old, but believing they were up to date.
Monday 16th March, all hell breaks loose when we find out where we really are on the infection chart. Johnson goes on TV to address the country, telling those in the high risk groups (over 70 and medically vulnerable) to self isolate, and all other people to stay at home if possible,
Friday 20th March. All pubs and restaurants formally closed.
Monday 23rd March, Johnson announces formal shutdown.
In hindsight, Johnson could have ordered a formal shutdown on Monday 16th. But SAGE wanted to do further analysis, particularly on schools, before doing this plus they also needed to work on things like the financial package for business's and their workforce. And in fairness, you can count back from the peak in infections in early April that the turning point was 16th March when Johnson told people to stay at home, rather than 23 March when the formal shutdown started. This was borne out by the number of news reports we were seeing of empty pubs and landlords asking for more direction. I witnessed it myself when I went for lunch at a very popular venue on the Wednesday and me and the missus were the only diners in there. All the big sports events had already closed down by then too.