Agreed. I think there is a high possibility of some element of the less stringent and precautionary restrictions returning over the winter, and/or a pre-emptive circuit breaker. Working from home, mask wearing, social distancing. I don't think there is an appetite anywhere for furlough and business closures.
The unknowns are how long vaccines provide immunity for, and further variants. By the winter, it is open to question that the vaccine efficacy of the large cohort of people inoculated first, may be compromised due to the passage of time, and emergence of additional variants. If so, we are effectively into a repeat mass roll-out operation for boosters.
The test is to see how a vaccinated adult population, with effective herd immunity, copes with the first full winter and Christmas under those conditions. Therefore I think there can be a justifiable combination of reasonable precautionary activity over the winter, coupled with equally reasonable continuation of social life and business activity.
By February / March next year, I think in epidemiological terms, we should have a definitive understanding of whether we are effectively over this or not. Between now and then its a data and numbers exercise, whilst beefing up public health infrastructure and allowing society to return to a high degree of normality whilst remaining vigilant.