Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Has anyone seen any information on the drop in cases during this lockdown compared to the one in March?

Just wondering when the case numbers will be around 100 per 100,000 across the country again. In the Liverpool City Region for example its still quite high but we have higher rates compared to most regions.

Also I'm wondering whether its took more time this time as the spread was so bad in December. Surely hasn't helped that such a large percentage of people had it when the lockdown started.
 
Has anyone seen any information on the drop in cases during this lockdown compared to the one in March?

Just wondering when the case numbers will be around 100 per 100,000 across the country again. In the Liverpool City Region for example its still quite high but we have higher rates compared to most regions.

Also I'm wondering whether its took more time this time as the spread was so bad in December. Surely hasn't helped that such a large percentage of people had it when the lockdown started.
A couple of weeks I imagine

Liverpool currently has a rolling 7 day case rate of 246 per 100,000
 
Well it is - and it's wrong

The constant suffocating coverage of the pandemic is adding to people's misery at this rate

People want to watch TV for escapism, not to be plunged further into the black hole of misery - Stop adapting soap storylines and mentioning it during every commercial break - we've had enough
Stop watching soaps ffs, it's not the 90s
 
Has anyone seen any information on the drop in cases during this lockdown compared to the one in March?

Just wondering when the case numbers will be around 100 per 100,000 across the country again. In the Liverpool City Region for example its still quite high but we have higher rates compared to most regions.

Also I'm wondering whether its took more time this time as the spread was so bad in December. Surely hasn't helped that such a large percentage of people had it when the lockdown started.

The Uk variant has become the more dominant one in a lot of Europe mate, its more infectious and easily more transmissible that is part of the reason why cases sky rockets but also stubbornly refuse to come down, Xmas and all we did, didn't help either and we are entering the last couple of months of flu season - flu season isnt about the flu just on a point in order, its the spike time of infectious diseases particularly respiratory that thrive in conditions of winter, when we are all cozy and condensed indoors with no ventilation. Really its all been a bit of a perfect storm for the virus.
 

Results The study population included over 28.9 million individuals aged 30-100 years living in private households. In the first wave, all ethnic minority groups had a higher risk of COVID-19 related death compared to the White British population. In the second wave, the risk of COVID-19 death remained elevated for people from Pakistani (ASMR: 339.9 [95% CI: 303.7 – 376.2] and 166.8 [141.7 – 191.9] deaths per 100,000 population in men and women) and Bangladeshi (318.7 [247.4 – 390.1] and 127.1 [91.1 – 171.3] in men and women)background but not for people from Black ethnic groups. Adjustment for geographical factors explained a large proportion of the differences in COVID-19 mortality in the first wave but not in the second wave. Despite an attenuation of the elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and health status, the risk was substantially higher in people from Bangladeshi and Pakistani background in both the first and the second waves.
 
The Uk variant has become the more dominant one in a lot of Europe mate, its more infectious and easily more transmissible that is part of the reason why cases sky rockets but also stubbornly refuse to come down, Xmas and all we did, didn't help either and we are entering the last couple of months of flu season - flu season isnt about the flu just on a point in order, its the spike time of infectious diseases particularly respiratory that thrive in conditions of winter, when we are all cozy and condensed indoors with no ventilation. Really its all been a bit of a perfect storm for the virus.
Yeh one of the reasons why I want to see a comparison is to see the impact of the new variant - I'm still not convinced its 50% more spreadable, has this number been revised yet?

The weather definitely had a massive impact along with christmas mixing at a time when infection rates were extremely high.

Edit: rates in the Liverpool City region have dropped massively over the past 2 weeks as well. If that continues we might in a good place in March.
 
But the J&J vaccine, which was put to the test in the largest of the studies, convincingly protected against severe disease and death, even against the B.1.351 variant, and Madhi remains “somewhat optimistic” that the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine will, too; the results are not “all doom and gloom,” he said.

SARS-CoV-2–targeting antibodies triggered by the J&J vaccine were “very similar,” he said, to those elicited by the AstraZeneca-Oxford candidate, and the two vaccines are based on a similar technology: Both induce the body to make the spike surface protein of SARS-CoV-2 by delivering its genes in a harmless adenovirus. In a 44,000-person trial, the J&J vaccine prevented 85% of severe cases and completely protected people from hospitalization and death in several countries, including the 15% of the participants who were from South Africa.

Madhi and the research team had planned to report the results tomorrow, but the Financial Times ran a story on Saturday based on a leaked copy of the findings. Madhi and his co-workers have submitted a paper describing their data to a preprint server and expect it will post tomorrow.

The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine has produced confusing results from the start. Earlier preliminary results from trials in different countries showed a wide range of success rates against mild and moderate disease, but researchers have had difficulty interpreting the data because of differences in dose, intervals between doses, and variants in circulation. Just on Friday, a study suggested the vaccine offered strong protection against a more transmissible variant, B.1.1.7, that exploded in the United Kingdom and is now spreading fast throughout Europe.

In South Africa, the vaccine was given in two doses spaced 21 to 35 days apart. Antibodies made by vaccine recipients can typically “neutralize” SARS-CoV-2, meaning they can prevent it from infecting cells in culture experiments. But lab studies show they have far less power against B.1.351.

Madhi stressed that the vaccine may still trigger a powerful T cell response, which can target and eliminate cells the variant manages to infect. He presented a test tube study showing how the mutations in the spike protein that allow B.1.351 to dodge neutralizing antibodies have little impact on T cell responses. “We believe that those T cell responses will still remain intact despite the mutations that exists in a B.1.351 variant,” Madhi said.
 
The Uk variant has become the more dominant one in a lot of Europe mate, its more infectious and easily more transmissible that is part of the reason why cases sky rockets but also stubbornly refuse to come down, Xmas and all we did, didn't help either and we are entering the last couple of months of flu season - flu season isnt about the flu just on a point in order, its the spike time of infectious diseases particularly respiratory that thrive in conditions of winter, when we are all cozy and condensed indoors with no ventilation. Really its all been a bit of a perfect storm for the virus.

The vaccines really rolling out at pace and hopefully a spring like we had last year should really help.

April and May were glorious last year in the UK, just genuinely perfect (in terms of the weather, like!). Would be a big boost I think.

Obviously the virus will still be here, but just for people generally being healthier/their immune systems stronger, a nice spring would be a massive boost.
 
A couple of weeks I imagine

Liverpool currently has a rolling 7 day case rate of 246 per 100,000

Just checked the map, amazing to see all the blue and some green and even white.

And in my area, the virus has been suppressed last week, with less than 3 cases recorded in the area next to mine on the map. Where I live had 9 cases and as far as I recall it's not gone above 15 at all since around Xmas. Worth noting that West Yorks has been in full lockdown or tier 3 since the end of October, though!

Wakefield district is 211, Leeds is 205 - basically bang on average.

 
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