Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[davek]

A small state that is politically unstable as a result of the domination of its economy by a single export, such as bananas, controlled by foreign capital?

The Financial sector are Britain's bananas.

 

[Tubey]

Completely understand all of your points. I just can't see a return to normality any time soon. There will be various new variants and further restrictions and lockdowns for years to come.

I think that's a pessimism borne from the situation we're in.

Logically though, once this vaccine gets rolling, you'll see a huge difference. It's not Tory spin; there will genuinely be a huge difference by May.

This is what vaccination did to smallpox.



It won't be the same with COVID as we won't eradicate it, but bare in mind that the smallpox response from 1966 was absolutely nothing compared to how hard and fast we're going to be rolling out the response to COVID internationally.

So here's my prediction, and I'm fairly confident in it.

1. Restrictions will be almost completely gone by May.

2. You'll have a massive public information campaign ahead of Winter 2021 for caution, wearing masks etc. just to be safe, but lockdowns won't exist as we know them now - track and trace will still be a thing and will be able to identify any contacts who haven't been innoculated.

3. There will be a resurgence of it in about 12-18 months from now when the initial immunity wears off, because science simply don't know how long the jab will work for. Once that resurgence occurs, people will be re-innoculated immediately and the spike will last a couple of weeks max. Again, no lockdown here.

4. After that, it basically becomes a variant of the flu. You'll be invited to get a flu jab and a COVID jab probably once a year, unless COVID vaccine effectiveness is longer lasting.

 

[davek]

People don't seem to understand what the vaccine does... it doesn't necessarily stop you getting COVID. That's why these vaccines have an efficacy rate of around 70 to 90%. Even at 90%, 1 in 10 will still catch COVID after the vaccine.

However, the key point - and this has been borne out by every study with these vaccines and has been since the very earliest ones with rhesus monkeys in around June - is that the vaccine will stop you getting seriously ill from COVID.

That is why people say we can't eradicate it (because we can't get full immunity from it) but we can live with it, because as long as we are innoculated against it then the lethality of the virus is greatly reduced.

There's no doubt at this point that vaccines will beat COVID as we know it today. It will mutate, and we'll mutate the vaccine to meet what it does. We'll beat it. It's just a matter of time. We just won't destroy it.

Agree with that. However, the sparsity of data on the efficacy of the vaccines in relation to the very old undermines slightly what you say about putting a cap on serious illness from Covid19.

Vaccines work less well the older a person is. We'll find out just how efficacious the vaccines are when / if they start to liberate people in that age group from feeling catching it is a death sentence. This is why I've been hammering away on the differences between Pfizer/Moderna and the Oxford vaccine. The more immunisation offered the elderly groups the better chance for survival for them. It should be a no brainer that the over 80s should be given the scarce Pfizer vaccines and those younger the AZ one.

 

[grandjoeblue]

@Tubey you are probably right. Reading all of the negative news and the impact this new variant amongst other things is definitely making me feel negative towards it all.

I hope you're right about May. I think even with a best case scenario it would be a bit later in the year. I don't think they'll get the vaccine out quick enough.

 

[Tubey]

Agree with that. However, the sparsity of data on the efficacy of the vaccines in relation to the very old undermines slightly what you say about putting a cap on serious illness from Covid19.

Vaccines work less well the older a person is. We'll find out just how efficacious the vaccines are when / if they start to liberate people in that age group from feeling catching it is a death sentence. This is why 've been hammering away on the differences between Pfizer/Moderna and the Oxford vaccine. The more imunisation offered the elderly goups the better chance for survival for them. It should be a no brainer that the over 80s should be given the scarce Pfizer vaccines and those younger the AZ one.

Well yeah, but the old still die from flu every year despite being vaccinated. It's not a key to immortality. COVID will kill several thousand every year now forevermore.

As for being given a certain vaccine, that'd be true possibly in the future as more is known. As for now, it's early days and it's more critical to just get any vaccine in that group.

 

[davek]

Well yeah, but the old still die from flu every year despite being vaccinated. It's not a key to immortality. COVID will kill several thousand every year now forevermore.

As for being given a certain vaccine, that'd be true possibly in the future as more is known. As for now, it's early days and it's more critical to just get any vaccine in that group.

Any vaccine is better than none. But there is data available now that suggests some are more efficacious than others. Then there's the associated problem of what vaccine (if any) can work with jabs distanced by months rather than - as first promised - weeks. I see no compeling evidence so far to suggest the UK regulators have it right that the Oxford jab can do that.

 

[bullybeef]

A relative of mine flew to NZ in the Autumn. As soon as the flight landed everyone on the plane were whisked off to a hotel where they had to self isolate for 2 weeks before they were allowed to continue their journey.

And we wonder why there is such a difference between NZ’s successful handling of Covid and the UK’s miserable failure!

 

[Black Belt Jones]

@Tubey you are probably right. Reading all of the negative news and the impact this new variant amongst other things is definitely making me feel negative towards it all.

I hope you're right about May. I think even with a best case scenario it would be a bit later in the year. I don't think they'll get the vaccine out quick enough.

Sir John Bell was good on the BBC yesterday if you didn't see it, gave a more optimistic view:

BBC News - BBC News Special, Coronavirus Update, 07/01/2021

The latest on coronavirus and the vaccine rollout programme.

www.bbc.co.uk

From around 13.30

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Any vaccine is better than none. But there is data available now that suggests some are more efficacious than others. Then there's the associated problem of what vaccine (if any) can work with jabs distanced by months rather than - as first promised - weeks. I see no compeling evidence so far to suggest the UK regulators have it right that the Oxford jab can do that.

The general usefulness of these vaccine will be reflected in share price if that holds or increasing, generally will be ok. This does not apply to government messing round with spacing...

 

[ForeverBlue92]

A relative of mine flew to NZ in the Autumn. As soon as the flight landed everyone on the plane were whisked off to a hotel where they had to self isolate for 2 weeks before they were allowed to continue their journey.

And we wonder why there is such a difference between NZ’s successful handling of Covid and the UK’s miserable failure!

Tbf I imagine the numbers flying into NZ is nothing compared to how many fly into the UK daily.

People forget how busy of a country we actually are despite our size. We messed up from the get go but people who constantly compare us to places like NZ/Australia/South Korea dont understand the fundamental differences.

 

[davek]

A relative of mine flew to NZ in the Autumn. As soon as the flight landed everyone on the plane were whisked off to a hotel where they had to self isolate for 2 weeks before they were allowed to continue their journey.

And we wonder why there is such a difference between NZ’s successful handling of Covid and the UK’s miserable failure!

Yep. This is a behavioural issue. The vaccines have to be supplemented with a way of life that's more disciplined and less self-centred. *Nudge policy* from government is not enough. Hard measures have to be brought in. Anyone not complying with them need to be positioned publicly as a danger to the rest of us and dealt with.

That will take years of effort from the top to get that message through...however, you need a willing government to enact that and we have one that prefers a libertarian approach which will continue the carnage.

 

[Tubey]

A relative of mine flew to NZ in the Autumn. As soon as the flight landed everyone on the plane were whisked off to a hotel where they had to self isolate for 2 weeks before they were allowed to continue their journey.

And we wonder why there is such a difference between NZ’s successful handling of Covid and the UK’s miserable failure!

I wish people would stop comparing the UK and NZ...

New Zealand is 10% bigger by land mass yet has 13x less populace. NZ also isn't a hub of international finance and trade.

So whilst it's very viable for NZ to lockdown each individual flight to their country, it isn't quite as viable for us. And even if we did that, NZ would still have an easier time than us with COVID due to sheer population density.

They aren't comparable countries in any way, shape or form in relation to COVID.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

How long we in this lockdown for you reckon?

Think we'll reopen in early March back to tiers with most still in 4 and the better ones in 3.

 

[grandjoeblue]

How long we in this lockdown for you reckon?

Think we'll reopen in early March back to tiers with most still in 4 and the better ones in 3.

End of March I think. As long as vaccinations are going well.

 

[davek]

Tbf I imagine the numbers flying into NZ is nothing compared to how many fly into the UK daily.

People forget how busy of a country we actually are despite our size. We messed up from the get go but people who constantly compare us to places like NZ/Australia/South Korea dont understand the fundamental differences.

Japan is comparable and they have deaths down to less than 4,000.