We are having a 2 week lockdown in NI which is basically same as March bar schools are open. We had a 4 week "circuit breaker" thing before that as well, so basically we're in week 5 of restrictions which run until 12 Dec.
I've came round to the conclusion that the virus will continue to spread as much as schools are open, especially secondary schools. But closing schools indefinitely isn't a solution, so there are no good solutions. Locking down earlier or later makes little difference. The virus spikes again once restrictions are lifted regardless of when you have restrictions. At least over Christmas, schools will be closed so I reckon there won't be much of an affect on transmission overall.
People love someone to blame for all this, but there are tonnes of factors and now we're in the winter too. There's no way of getting the virus down to really low numbers until the vaccine comes. We just should have been far better at dealing with the virus by now and prepared for this wave.