Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[peteblue]

Being a bit ignorant here (have been trying to avoid news for a week), but have the gov set out the methodology for the tier system?

Doesn’t seem hard to do - if numbers a and/or b go above x, this equals tier 3, repeat for other tiers.

There must be some method underlying the ratings, even if we can then disagree about whether it’s the right method, and what the appropriate boundary lines are etc.

But just seeing disputes this morning would indicate either people haven’t seen the methodology or it hasn’t been made public.

The methodology doesn’t look consistent, and is being applied on too wide a geographical base. If Kent was actually two counties one would be tier 1 or 2 and the other tier 3. But because of the larger county grouping they all go into tier 3.....lunacy....

 

[davek]

The vast majority are in 2 and 3.

And no one is calling it a lock down from next week. The frustration is that folk who have done everything they have been asked seem to have been flung together with areas that are still experiencing significant infections.

The word lockdown should never have been uttered. They've effectively just opened up more of the hospitality sector from 2nd of December on. It's a sleight of hand. The bulk of the economy has been open for business since the national lockdown ended in June.

I dont see where the hue and cry comes from over tiering. Unless someone's life revolves around going to the pub or restaurant or gym, what effect can it have? The gatherings rules are not going to be applied rigorously. People will meet up when they want.

We've had it rammed down our throats for decades that the services sector is the be all and end all of our lives. The spiv economy must roll on as a matter of course. Well it isn't essential, as we're all now finding out.

 

[roydo]

The methodology doesn’t look consistent, and is being applied on too wide a geographical base. If Kent was actually two counties one would be tier 1 or 2 and the other tier 3. But because of the larger county grouping they all go into tier 3.....lunacy....

It has to be the same NHS Trust. Thats the only thing thats makes sense.

 

[Wizard]

Being a bit ignorant here (have been trying to avoid news for a week), but have the gov set out the methodology for the tier system?

Doesn’t seem hard to do - if numbers a and/or b go above x, this equals tier 3, repeat for other tiers.

There must be some method underlying the ratings, even if we can then disagree about whether it’s the right method, and what the appropriate boundary lines are etc.

But just seeing disputes this morning would indicate either people haven’t seen the methodology or it hasn’t been made public.

The government have said there are 5 criteria which determine the tiers:

1. case detection rates in all age groups
2. case detection rates in the over 60s
3. the rate at which cases are rising or falling
4. positivity rate (the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken)
5. pressure on the NHS

Returning to a regional tiered approach

A written statement from the Health and Social Care Secretary to the House of Commons on returning to local COVID restriction tiers in England.

www.gov.uk

 

[roydo]

I dont see where the hue and cry comes from over tiering. Unless someone's life revolves around going to the pub or restaurant or gym, what effect can it have?

If you own one, its quite a big deal I would imagine. Especially if you have followed every dot and comma since March, and still cant be open.

 

[davek]

I think the picture says it all. Broad brush, no consideration for those in tier 2 or tier 3 who should actually be in tier 1...

London's 9 million people in 30 odd borough's of differing complexions and economic structures all falling into tier 2 underlines that.

Overall though: tiers 2/3 - the big difference is a few more dimensions to hospitality and retail being open/closed. Everything else rolls on as normal.

This is as cynical a manipulation of a population as it gets: we're basically doing the "old normal" in the teeth of a deadly pandemic.

 

[davek]

If you own one, its quite a big deal I would imagine. Especially if you have followed every dot and comma since March, and still cant be open.

I'm sure it is. But what proportion of the population own a service sector business?

 

[roydo]

I'm sure it is. But what proportion of the population own a service sector business?

Not many.

How many folk own a football club? Let them all go as well?

 

[davek]

Not many.

How many folk own a football club? Let them all go as well?

But they haven't. They're open and playing and trading.

 

[roydo]

But they haven't. They're open and playing and trading.

Surviving. Just.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Get the oxford vaccine into peoples arms next week. This whole regulation process takes too long, too much red tape.

 

[Wizard]

Interesting graph here based on the government's metrics for the tiers. Circle size represents population

 

[BlueToff]

The infection rate was stabilised and starting to fall before mass testing. Shortly before lockdown it flatlined. If I were a betting man I'd say it didn't make a blind bit of difference.

But it's better to have two types of test - than just one - is it not? Surely if there's then a discrepancy in results there can be a more accurate calcuation?

Given test, track and trace is key to dealing with covid long-term, isn't having a test that can be returned swiftly (as in within a matter of hours) and accurately crucial?

 

[BlueToff]

Are hundreds dying per day because of a lockdown? They are with this virus.

I'd say a fair few thousand, a fair, fair few, will ultimately die because of the impact of the on-off lockdowns, yes.

Whether that's in months, or in a few years.

Obviously, that depends on how the government get us out of this. Do I trust this bunch to not just return to austerity for the next 10 years? Do I hell.

 

[BlueToff]

The tests aren't exaclty fool proof like are they?

No, but neither are the PCR ones.

Those results weren't doubted or if they were, the people were shot down for it as conspiracy theorists.

Don't see why it should be any different for these, and if the lateral flow tests can be administered on a wider basis, then that's going to help.