Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[zzr45]

Here's some.

Why is it that while Covid-19 cases are rising, deaths continue to fall?

There is speculation that those infected are younger and the vulnerable are still shielding

www.theguardian.com

That's not the same journalist, is it? I'm not doubting there's good analysis out there, however it's in short supply compared to the knee jerk tweets.

Yeah sorry I didn't mean the young people stuff, but cases are increasing and people really need to take care.

Thats the headline I took from that story personally.

I'd agree, if it had been left at, ’cases are going up’ in absolute basic terms, yes fair enough story. It's the sloppy attempt at analysis that follows it that doesn't particularly give answers either. It creates confusion and that's been half the issues.

 

[roydo]

We are keeping it small, 12 people, which is just parents, siblings and children, I've had the whole family on the phone asking why we are keeping it low key.........................

Same here, if we can. Literally, just me and Nik, plus what ever the legals require.

 

[PhilM]

We are keeping it small, 12 people, which is just parents, siblings and children, I've had the whole family on the phone asking why we are keeping it low key.........................

One of my best friends was meant to get married in August and it was postponed. It’s now in October and it’ll be immediate family with a party next year.

Most of us were great with it, as people should be, but there were a few people peeved that they’re not going to the ceremony. My response: get a grip!

 

[COYBL25]

I think I'm missing your point mate?

Its a story based on facts, its not scaremongering to tell people that cases are increasing and you need to be careful.

The use of the words “ Government Source “ is just another way of saying “ I’ve made it up “

 

[Nymzee]

One of my best friends was meant to get married in August and it was postponed. It’s now in October and it’ll be immediate family with a party next year.

Most of us were great with it, as people should be, but there were a few people peeved that they’re not going to the ceremony. My response: get a grip!

I mean, I thought people only really cared about the party anyway tbh lol

 

[Goat]

I mean, I thought people only really cared about the party anyway tbh lol

Im overjoyed we cant have to have a big party personally, the missus is gutted, but shes not stupid like, she knows why.

Its gonna save me GRANDS!

 

[orly]

Brand is a decent journalist, but I honestly hope every hack in the UK understands that "sources" are not an appropriate way to report on this pandemic.

If the government cannot coordinate effective communications, or the pandemic response, or clearly isn't doing its job properly then report on that but please do not let anonymous sources brief out worrying information (which in the past has often proved to be untrue) and then just leave it hanging in the air. If someone is saying this is alarming, then we have a right to know who that person is.

While I broadly agree, a "government source" here will be at least a Senior Civil Servant or Junior Minister- and likely at Cabinet Office, No 10 or DHSC level. Or the journo (Brand is decent) wouldn't bother using their words

 

[PhilM]

I mean, I thought people only really cared about the party anyway tbh lol

“Mate, you’re not getting me in a suit for the party” and no responsibilities on the day is a winner for me.

 

[BlueStevie35]

Hospital figures - 3 deaths were announced today, down 7 on yesterday and the exact same figure as last Sunday. All 3 were in English hospitals, down 5 on yesterday and again the exact same total as last week with all occurring in the past 10 days. The 7 day rolling average remains at 9.29

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 2 deaths were announced today, down 10 on yesterday and up one on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to 7.43

For the 60 day cut off, 2 deaths were announced today, down 19 on yesterday and the exact same total as last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average stays the same at 11.29

For the legacy/no cut off, 9 deaths were announced today, down 66 on yesterday and up 3 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to 50.71

 

[orly]

Hospital figures - 3 deaths were announced today, down 7 on yesterday and the exact same figure as last Sunday. All 3 were in English hospitals, down 5 on yesterday and again the exact same total as last week with all occurring in the past 10 days. The 7 day rolling average remains at 9.29

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 2 deaths were announced today, down 10 on yesterday and up one on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to 7.43

For the 60 day cut off, 2 deaths were announced today, down 19 on yesterday and the exact same total as last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average stays the same at 11.29

For the legacy/no cut off, 9 deaths were announced today, down 66 on yesterday and up 3 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to 50.71

Infection rates big jump, death rate always lags

Trouble

 

[BlueStevie35]

Infection rates big jump, death rate always lags

Trouble

New cases are crazy high, highest it’s been in 4 months. Could be an anomaly for now, but could easily lead to higher death figures if not dealt with

 

[evilwebby]

It was inevitable, but it seems the UK is now following the path we have seen in other European countries with new cases climbing at an alarming rate once again.

New cases in France & Spain have surpassed their March-April highs. Number of deaths is also creeping up. All in all, this is not good at all.

 

[Nymzee]

It was inevitable, but it seems the UK is now following the path we have seen in other European countries with new cases climbing at an alarming rate once again.

New cases in France & Spain have surpassed their March-April highs. Number of deaths is also creeping up. All in all, this is not good at all.

To me it was just inevitable. Watching places I’ve been, all the mingling and ignoring of social distancing, I was actually shocked when cases were still going down.

 

[PhilM]

It was inevitable, but it seems the UK is now following the path we have seen in other European countries with new cases climbing at an alarming rate once again.

New cases in France & Spain have surpassed their March-April highs. Number of deaths is also creeping up. All in all, this is not good at all.

Without knowing the full facts, I'd assume that this may partly be down to the more rigorous testing regime that we are now in place: more tests = more results.

Although, I suspect the official results from March and April are only a fraction of what the real scale when you consider how many people were actually dying.

While better knowledge and procedures (socially and hospitals) will have improved survival rate, I think it must have been absolutely rife for so many deaths.

 

[Catfish Blues]

Is it though? There is an awful lot of conjecture in the tweets and unnamed sources. If it isn't just ’young people’ who else is it? There seems to be a presentation of some simple facts (cases going up) but not a lot of analysis beyond it.

It's not a secret, and there is analysis going on.
The last published data ( for England ) will be about a week out of date now, but said

Overall case numbers and positivity increased in week 35, with the majority of cases reported from Pillar 2. The highest case rates continued to be seen in the 15-44 year olds followed by 45 -64 year olds. Positivity was highest amongst males aged 15-44 and amongst females aged 85+. Cases rates and positivity continue to be highest in the North and Central regions of England.

... and the top graph on the right shows the spread of cases by age pictorially. The bottom graph would be more useful ( to illustrate positivity ) if it concentrated on recent weeks, but you still get the gist from it.