This population epidemiology study estimates associations of school closures in the US and the timing of those closures in March 2020 with change in daily coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence and mortality through the first week of May, accounting for other contemporaneous public health...
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Question Was statewide school closure associated with decreased incidence and mortality for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)?
Findings In this US population–based time series analysis conducted between March 9, 2020, and May 7, 2020, school closure was associated with a significant decline in both incidence of COVID-19 (adjusted relative change per week, −62%) and mortality (adjusted relative change per week, −58%). In a model derived from this analysis, it was estimated that closing schools when the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was in the lowest quartile compared with the highest quartile was associated with 128.7 fewer cases per 100 000 population over 26 days and with 1.5 fewer deaths per 100 000 population over 16 days.
Meaning There was a temporal association between statewide school closure and lower COVID-19 incidence and mortality, although some of the reductions may have been related to other concurrent nonpharmaceutical interventions.