One of the reasons the “excess deaths” data will be so valuable is it reflects coronaviruses overall impact on society even in the absence of reliable testing data.With respect mate, although you're right to some extent that the stats don't tell the full story, and we won't know the full story for some time, I think you're conciously or subconciously trying to convince yourself that things aren't as bad as what the headlines suggest.
A lot of people are currently dying that, if they hadn't contracted COVID-19, would still be pottering about for a good few years yet. There will come a time when the number of people dying as a result of the lockdown, as opposed to dying as a result of COVID means it'll probably be "better" ( less worse really ) to accept a certain amount of COVID related deaths, but we're currently nowhere near that point.
It's not really, a real world example might go something like ( apologies for making it close to home, but it helps illustrate the point )
Uncle Billy is overweight and on medication to control his hypertension.
He contracts COVID-19 and, partly as a result of his pre-existing conditions sadly passes away.
If he hadn't contracted COVID-19, he'd still be alive. With apologies to the medics on here, because I don't know exactly how this works, but a chain of events resulting in Uncle Billy's death was started by COVID-19, so his death certificate might include, as causes of death :-
The above won't be exactly right, but it probably won't be far off.
- Pneumonia, brought on by
- A COVID-19 infection
- Excerberated by a pre-existing hypertensive condition
Reductions in deaths due to car accidents, seasonal flu, workplace injuries etc will be in there (and can be highlighted in their own sub categories) but balanced against coronavirus related (even if indirect) causes.
We’ll also be able to see if any reductions compared to baseline in later months to quality how much of it is the indelicately named “harvesting effect” of the vulnerable like Uncle Billy that is often seen in events like bad heatwaves.