Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Catfish Blues]

but more importantly the government are releasing daily figures.

If they didn't release daily figures, they'd get grief
If they released figures with more of a delay in them to make them more accurate, they'd get grief

From what we all see, and what you are saying, they don’t.

It's not really what I'm saying, I don't have any unique insight into the data, all I've done is look behind the tweets, at publicly available information, which explains, at least to some extent, the limitations of the datasets.

Before you do any analysis, you have to understand the limitations in the input data, or you end up being, for example, that person who quotes an answer of 6.57% to some question as though it's exact, when the real answer is you're 90% confident it's between 3 and 10%, with a best estimate of 6.5%

I get that people are worried, and so tend to obsess about the numbers, but time after time, the medics and the scientists have stood up explaining that it makes no sense to look at daily figures, you have to look at trends, but it's as though people aren't listening, or can only process a couple of tweets.

Don't be mean.

 

[tsubaki]

If they didn't release daily figures, they'd get grief
If they released figures with more of a delay in them to make them more accurate, they'd get grief



It's not really what I'm saying, I don't have any unique insight into the data, all I've done is look behind the tweets, at publicly available information, which explains, at least to some extent, the limitations of the datasets.

Before you do any analysis, you have to understand the limitations in the input data, or you end up being, for example, that person who quotes an answer of 6.57% to some question as though it's exact, when the real answer is you're 90% confident it's between 3 and 10%, with a best estimate of 6.5%

I get that people are worried, and so tend to obsess about the numbers, but time after time, the medics and the scientists have stood up explaining that it makes no sense to look at daily figures, you have to look at trends, but it's as though people aren't listening, or can only process a couple of tweets.



Don't be mean.

That bit I agree with (especially the second sentence) - but I was just trying to say that if they want to give a daily figure then it is possible to do this but it would need a different process to the one they use to compile the actual statistics.

That they are using the same process is what I think is woeful here, given that we know the number they put out is wrong.

 

[PSB1]

Far as I know, disaster planning / exercises have been going on in this country for at least the last 80 years. I don't know, but guess, that governments of both colours have come to the same conclusion: that the costs of covering every possible contingency aren't worth it. or simply cannot be afforded.

I happen to believe that the loss of so much manufacturing has played a part in the PPE problem but can't offer a certainty. No doubt the enquiry which will inevitably follow this business will have something to say to that. That some planning took place is, I think, evidenced by the rapidity of the preparing th Nightingale places.

If we are to take Germany and South Korea as the shining examples of readiness, then the lesson would seem to be we should have right wing governments decade after decade ... not something I'd have thought the GOT commentators would swallow readily.

The only thing I do know for certain is this: not one damn person on this planet has all the answers and very few have any of them yet. I'm happy to hold up my hands to my own ignorance.

 

[PhilM]

“Do not collect £200.” after a firm and swift FRO.

 

[tsubaki]

View attachment 83241

“Do not collect £200.” after a firm and swift FRO.

I especially like the IF YOU SURRENDER YOUR FREEDOMS bit, coming right after the request for everyone to film themselves breaking the law.

 

[Harryflashman]

Far as I know, disaster planning / exercises have been going on in this country for at least the last 80 years. I don't know, but guess, that governments of both colours have come to the same conclusion: that the costs of covering every possible contingency aren't worth it. or simply cannot be afforded.

I happen to believe that the loss of so much manufacturing has played a part in the PPE problem but can't offer a certainty. No doubt the enquiry which will inevitably follow this business will have something to say to that. That some planning took place is, I think, evidenced by the rapidity of the preparing th Nightingale places.

If we are to take Germany and South Korea as the shining examples of readiness, then the lesson would seem to be we should have right wing governments decade after decade ... not something I'd have thought the GOT commentators would swallow readily.

The only thing I do know for certain is this: not one damn person on this planet has all the answers and very few have any of them yet. I'm happy to hold up my hands to my own ignorance.

ok mate , but what’s the point of table topping or gaming exercises if when they tell you you haven’t got enough PPE or ventilators they you don’t improve that ? So then 18 months later what you played out happens and it can’t be a massive surprise you haven’t got enough of either. for the actual life of me I can’t understand how thiis can be something that doesn’t lead to criticism. I accept that’s at face value and an enquiry may change it but at this minute questions need answering surely ?

 

[Goat]

View attachment 83241

“Do not collect £200.” after a firm and swift FRO.

*prepares for another month of lockdown

 

[Catfish Blues]

That bit I agree with (especially the second sentence) - but I was just trying to say that if they want to give a daily figure then it is possible to do this but it would need a different process to the one they use to compile the actual statistics.

That they are using the same process is what I think is woeful here, given that we know the number they put out is wrong.

You're kind of assuming there's been some sort of joined up thinking implemented in terms of electronic patient records across all NHS trusts, which, when they tried to put together an integrated system however many years ago it was, failed miserably and very publicly.

It's not directly relevant to the stats we're talking about here, but it illustrates a point

Last year, I got referred by my GP to a hospital. My GP writes a letter, which goes to an appointments department. They don't actually send you an appointment, but I'm then contacted to see which hospital I want to go to, and there was a choice of six.

They had figures for waiting times for two of them, but I had to ring the other four myself to find out their waiting times because they're not on an integrated system. I then get an appointment to see a consultant. The consultant agrees with my GP's diagnosis, and refers to me a specialist dept in the same hospital. But that referral isn't done in an electronic system, she types a letter up and sends it on to the specialists dept.

Point of all that is to illustrate how poor data collection and systems are in the NHS. They're about 30 years out of date, and that's inherent throughout the organisation, and is something governments of all shades have failed miserably to address. It should be no surprise to anyone that's had any dealings with the NHS to learn that, as far as data goes, they're absolutely hopeless. It would be very easy to blame Johnson, Hancock et al for that, but the problems lie far deeper than the elected knobs at the top.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

UK lockdown: police apologise after man threatened with pepper spray.

Greater Manchester police have apologised after a man who said he was delivering food to vulnerable family members was arrested and threatened with pepper spray.

In video footage of the incident, which took place in Fallowfield, Manchester, on Friday, the man can be seen refusing to give police his details after being accused of “breaking Covid guidelines”.

“Give me a ticket for what?” the man says to the officer. “You’re a bored guy. There’s groups of people all over the place.”

The footage, which was filmed by a neighbour, shows the officer repeatedly threatening the man with pepper spray, handcuffing him and telling him to lean against a car.

“Put your hands on your head or you’re going to get sprayed,” the officer can be heard saying. “Put your hands behind your back.”


“You just keep saying things over and over,” replies the man. “You’re not helping, you’re not diluting the situation, you’re making it worse. Because I come to drop some stuff off.” He complains that the officer has twisted the handcuffs, causing him pain.

A woman can be heard telling the officer: “In the current situation, in the current pandemic, there’s more pressing situations to be dealing with than coming over and bothering somebody going about his business on his own.” The officer tells her: “Listen ... you’ll be next.”

There has been criticism that some police forces are overreaching their lockdown enforcement powers. The Guardian learned on Thursday that police chiefs wanted the government to consider toughening the restrictions, as the Easter bank holiday weekend approached. On Saturday, the chair of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, Martin Hewitt, said police from 37 forces in England and Wales had issued 1,084 fines for breaches of coronavirus regulations as of Thursday, but the number of arrests was unclear.

Greater Manchester police apologised and said that a senior member of the force was speaking to the man and his family.

“Although the matter is being investigated fully by our professional standards branch, our initial review shows that the incident wasn’t dealt with in the professional way we would expect and we apologise for that,” a spokesperson said.

“The public rightly expect the highest standards from our officers and we will investigate this matter thoroughly and properly. We would ask that the public understand the stresses that our officers are working under at present and we hope this apology will be welcome to those involved.”

It is understood the man was arrested under the Police and Criminal Evidence Act and then de-arrested and issued with a fixed penalty notice.

 

[OnlyBlueWillDo]

Hancock saying NHS staff using too much PPE the absolute cheek of him, maybe he wants them to take it home and wash it like a PE kit.

I'm just waiting for how the Tories are going to try spin this onto Labour like they did the financial crash.

Disgraceful we are relying on NHS staff to save our lives and they aint got enough kit to protect themselves, they are literary like soldiers going into battle exposing themselves to fatal doses of this virus, would you send troops in without body armour and helmets?

 

[Mikey_Fitzgerald]

*prepares for another month of lockdown

That's what those stupid tits are going to cause isn't it?

*Sigh*

 

[Harryflashman]

View attachment 83241

“Do not collect £200.” after a firm and swift FRO.

there is a reason the government have been hugely critical of the chief con who half advocated road blocks and checking shopping , even though he didn’t really , or why forces have apologised for over zealousness when that never happens . It’s because consent is hugely important and that’s how policing works .

one cop today way arresting someone today whilst talking about the bloke breaking ‘guidelines‘ . Well clearly That’s a messy business isn’t it ? The police in this country , by and large , Do a decent job but overzealousness leads to this . I’m guessing that’s why up until a few days ago Merseyside weren’t into really stop and account . There won’t be many at them protests but tell people what to buy , not to let their kids in their garden or to account for movements over the next few weeks you’ll deffo see more .

 

[COYBL25]

Just a bit. He's out washing his car every day with a power wash before 9 am, and she sticks the washer on at midnight and the whole house rattles when it spins.

The answer to all your problems is German techno my friend.

 

[LocalNative]

Hancock saying NHS staff using too much PPE the absolute cheek of him, maybe he wants them to take it home and wash it like a PE kit.

I'm just waiting for how the Tories are going to try spin this onto Labour like they did the financial crash.

Disgraceful we are relying on NHS staff to save our lives and they aint got enough kit to protect themselves, they are literary like soldiers going into battle exposing themselves to fatal doses of this virus, would you send troops in without body armour and helmets?

Yeah he's had a shocker there. Those staff shouldn't have to be taking any chances with PPE and I could forgive every single last one for taking every precaution necessary. Hancock and his gang of crooks shouldn't have let it get this far in the first place.

 

[tsubaki]

You're kind of assuming there's been some sort of joined up thinking implemented in terms of electronic patient records across all NHS trusts, which, when they tried to put together an integrated system however many years ago it was, failed miserably and very publicly.

It's not directly relevant to the stats we're talking about here, but it illustrates a point

Last year, I got referred by my GP to a hospital. My GP writes a letter, which goes to an appointments department. They don't actually send you an appointment, but I'm then contacted to see which hospital I want to go to, and there was a choice of six.

They had figures for waiting times for two of them, but I had to ring the other four myself to find out their waiting times because they're not on an integrated system. I then get an appointment to see a consultant. The consultant agrees with my GP's diagnosis, and refers to me a specialist dept in the same hospital. But that referral isn't done in an electronic system, she types a letter up and sends it on to the specialists dept.

Point of all that is to illustrate how poor data collection and systems are in the NHS. They're about 30 years out of date, and that's inherent throughout the organisation, and is something governments of all shades have failed miserably to address. It should be no surprise to anyone that's had any dealings with the NHS to learn that, as far as data goes, they're absolutely hopeless. It would be very easy to blame Johnson, Hancock et al for that, but the problems lie far deeper than the elected knobs at the top.

not really; the system I suggested wouldn't require any integration beyond directing Trusts / Hospitals to gather data internally and then sending it to a central point