NHS England reporting another 828 deaths. Terrible.
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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A 'study' by 'world leading data analysts' in Seattle have forecast that we will have over 10k more deaths than Italy, Spain and France combined.
Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study
World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.
The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.
The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.
The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid-19.
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.
The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 24,500 intensive care beds will be needed and 799 are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 21,000 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.
The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.
The IHME bases its forecasts in large part on the trajectory of deaths rather than case numbers and the speed with which distancing measures were put in place.
The UK will be severely short of beds, it finds. Germany, by contrast, is predicted to have enough hospital beds, including ICU beds, needed for its peak. The IHME predicts Germany will have 8,802 deaths in total by 4 August.
France will have enough general beds but will be about 4,000 short of ICU beds at the peak, says the forecast. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. Both Italy and Spain are past their peaks, says the IHME.
The IHME, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, published its forecast for the US on Sunday, revising down the projected number of Covid-19 deaths there from 93,500 to 81,800. These figures were relied on in part for the US government’s own, higher predictions of the coronavirus death toll.
In March, modellers relied on by the UK government, led by the team at Imperial College London, said deaths could reach 260,000 in the UK with no restrictions on movement, but they hoped to get deaths down to 20,000 through the lockdown strategy.
Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.
The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.
The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said:
The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 daily deaths.
“We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe,” said the IHME director, Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.
“It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well-implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates.
“Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates.
“Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”
Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study
World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.
The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.
The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.
The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid-19.
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.
The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 24,500 intensive care beds will be needed and 799 are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 21,000 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.
The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.
The IHME bases its forecasts in large part on the trajectory of deaths rather than case numbers and the speed with which distancing measures were put in place.
The UK will be severely short of beds, it finds. Germany, by contrast, is predicted to have enough hospital beds, including ICU beds, needed for its peak. The IHME predicts Germany will have 8,802 deaths in total by 4 August.
France will have enough general beds but will be about 4,000 short of ICU beds at the peak, says the forecast. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. Both Italy and Spain are past their peaks, says the IHME.
The IHME, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, published its forecast for the US on Sunday, revising down the projected number of Covid-19 deaths there from 93,500 to 81,800. These figures were relied on in part for the US government’s own, higher predictions of the coronavirus death toll.
In March, modellers relied on by the UK government, led by the team at Imperial College London, said deaths could reach 260,000 in the UK with no restrictions on movement, but they hoped to get deaths down to 20,000 through the lockdown strategy.
Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.
The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.
The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said:
- What had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain.
- What had happened so far in the UK.
- When physical distancing measures were put in place.
The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 daily deaths.
“We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe,” said the IHME director, Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.
“It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well-implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates.
“Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates.
“Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”
arminisgod
Player Valuation: £35m
Jesus christ, they are NOT telling you to not exercise. Stay at home allows you 1 form of exercise a day. No time limits, No distance limits. ONE A DAY
arminisgod
Player Valuation: £35m
A professor on twitter reckons we could see lockdown restrictions lifted by 27th April...
i mean.. how?
Cases are on the down.
We’ll still be in lockdown for a while but certain restrictions lifted over time.
arminisgod
Player Valuation: £35m
he also reckons footy crowds back by 1st June. Just can't see how that is viable. I think we will have another 4 weeks after this.
1832 total cases 81 dead,90 critical with 269 recovered.With the small populations on the islands it is critical to follow the rules being applied.We have been on full lock down since 23 rd of March.Will there be a tourist season ????? The vast majority of Rhodes (and many islands) depends on tourism.We only work for 6 months a year anyway.That is not by choice,it is because the tourist industry do not fly here in the winter months.We maybe ready I think by June to mid June.However,if the other countries i.e UK and mainly the rest of Europe are still in lock down,who is going to be flying in ?
Billysgingham.
Player Valuation: £40m
I think it's a lot down to a little bit of common sense mate. Although I dont find sense very common.
Me and my missus have an hours exercise a day (or 3 minutes in her timescale) without the need to go out.
Kenshin
Player Valuation: £40m
Yeah, I can imagine that to be the case. Different trigger for it to happen.
Even when the lock down is lifted here mate, I can see severe restrictions on flights in and out of the UK for quite a while after
canuckblue
Player Valuation: £50m
Chinese and Americans? (I kid, I kid.)
Billysgingham.
Player Valuation: £40m
Sake you must be fit 3 mins take some doing that mate.Me and my missus have an hours exercise a day (or 3 minutes in her timescale) without the need to go out.
Kenshin
Player Valuation: £40m
Simple
Be able to visit people.
Open shops but with a strict policy like we have now for essential shops.
No mass gatherings , so no events etc
Limit what people can do still but not remove them enterely. It's down to people to be sensible or not. If they aren't then back to lockdown again
Kenshin
Player Valuation: £40m
I keep seeing two different numbers every day now.
Was on the news as well 600 odd but number always seems to jump up by late afternoon?
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