Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

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ToffeeTim said:
I know it's not a very helpful contribution to this thread, but I have no idea who is going to win. Feels like all the important states are still in play and could be extremely close.
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That's an understandable interpretation from all these polls, but if you look at all the early-voting data from the states, it does look like Trump will sweep all the swing states. It even makes states like Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico competitive.
 
emir said:
That's an understandable interpretation from all these polls, but if you look at all the early-voting data from the states, it does look like Trump will sweep all the swing states. It even makes states like Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico competitive.
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I would be shocked if Trump has a realistic chance in any of those 3 states.

PA is going to be most important, then you have Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, N Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Not sure any others are in play.
 
ToffeeTim said:
I would be shocked if Trump has a realistic chance in any of those 3 states.

PA is going to be most important, then you have Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, N Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Not sure any others are in play.
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Trump literally lost NH by 3k votes in 2016, and this election he is polling far better on all metrics than 2016. It's absolutely not shocking at all if he wins. It just happens that polling companies haven't invested in states like this and it's very hard to get an accurate polling.

He only lost NM by 8 points but there has been a huge shift since then. Latinos are breaking in record numbers for Trump and additionally New Mexico has been hit hard by illegal immigration caused by Kamala. It's literally entirely feasible NM flips for Trump.

Virginia is probably the least likeliest out of the 3 I mentioned but again, early voting is looking promising for Trump.

Even Minnesota should theoretically be in play for Trump, as he only lost it by 2 points in 2016 and he is outperforming 2016 by every single metric.
 
emir said:
Trump literally lost NH by 3k votes in 2016, and this election he is polling far better on all metrics than 2016. It's absolutely not shocking at all if he wins. It just happens that polling companies haven't invested in states like this and it's very hard to get an accurate polling.

He only lost NM by 8 points but there has been a huge shift since then. Latinos are breaking in record numbers for Trump and additionally New Mexico has been hit hard by illegal immigration caused by Kamala. It's literally entirely feasible NM flips for Trump.

Virginia is probably the least likeliest out of the 3 I mentioned but again, early voting is looking promising for Trump.

Even Minnesota should theoretically be in play for Trump, as he only lost it by 2 points in 2016 and he is outperforming 2016 by every single metric.
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Why won't you take me up on my wager?
 
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