Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

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Biden seems to be in some kind of mental decline, he used to be a competent public speaker but he’s been a bit of a trainwreck over the past few months. He loses his train of thought so quickly and jumbles words and sentences in unusual ways.

Pretty amazed he’s still topping polls although I imagine most of that is because average joes who dont really follow politics closely already know his name and just think “Obama was alright, Biden gets my vote”.

Watching him and Trump debate each other would be painful viewing
 
Biden seems to be in some kind of mental decline, he used to be a competent public speaker but he’s been a bit of a trainwreck over the past few months. He loses his train of thought so quickly and jumbles words and sentences in unusual ways.

Pretty amazed he’s still topping polls although I imagine most of that is because average joes who dont really follow politics closely already know his name and just think “Obama was alright, Biden gets my vote”.

Watching him and Trump debate each other would be painful viewing

Yup, it is a looming disaster for the party elders.

Operation 'Pretend Sanders Doesn't Exist' has had mixed results at best and will collapse if he wins NH or especially Iowa; Biden's brain is festering oatmeal (obvious at the outset to anyone paying attention); and the leading status quo alternative is the mediocre mayor of a small town who is unelectably reviled for good reason by black voters.

This is why there's so much speculation about them arbitrarily imposing someone palatable to donors after a contested convention, but even that assumes that one of the intolerables (Sanders and to a much lesser extent Warren) doesn't gain critical momentum early on.

And at that point, the DCCC's worst possible outcome of them all (Sanders defeating Trump) becomes a very serious possibility.
 
She struggled to come up with a clear message of what her policy priorities were or a strategy to attract a particular set of primary voters.

It's damning that it never really occurred to her that she would need either - the biography was meant to suffice. But it was a biography designed for someone trying to bcome President in 1996 or something.

Also an instructive reminder of how inept and out of touch the people who run the Democratic Party remain, even after 2016.
 
Only person I would even consider is Mark Cuban :)
Has Cuban ever given any indication he’d be willing to run as a Democrat? I know he’s generally pretty conservative on some of his viewpoints, particularly in fiscal matters.

I guess it’s technically possible he could try to primary Trump for the Republican nomination, but I couldn’t even begin to tell you the last time that happened to a sitting President who was eligible to serve another term.
 
It's damning that it never really occurred to her that she would need either - the biography was meant to suffice. But it was a biography designed for someone trying to bcome President in 1996 or something.

Also an instructive reminder of how inept and out of touch the people who run the Democratic Party remain, even after 2016.
Tbf I don’t think I’d lay this one on the Democratic party - Harris herself should have seen it and made steps to address it.

The obvious strategy was to appeal to the 2016 primary voters who had selected Clinton over Sanders and who thought the current alternatives of Biden was too old and Warren too far left. Kamala is my senator and I although I know several Clinton 2016 primary voters not a single one had her as their top choice and if you can’t convince your target demographic in your home state you are in real trouble.
 
Tbf I don’t think I’d lay this one on the Democratic party - Harris herself should have seen it and made steps to address it.

The obvious strategy was to appeal to the 2016 primary voters who had selected Clinton over Sanders and who thought the current alternatives of Biden was too old and Warren too far left. Kamala is my senator and I although I know several Clinton 2016 primary voters not a single one had her as their top choice and if you can’t convince your target demographic in your home state you are in real trouble.
I read that she only had till today to get off the CA primary ballot.
Apparently there was a genuine fear that she would get absolutely wiped out in her home state and therefore end any shot at POTUS in the future. I'd be fairly sure she'll be back in 2024
 
I read that she only had till today to get off the CA primary ballot.
Apparently there was a genuine fear that she would get absolutely wiped out in her home state and therefore end any shot at POTUS in the future. I'd be fairly sure she'll be back in 2024
She tried to be "cool" while throwing out the same old stuff Dems like to talk about. She was a Gimmick at best. She must have more if she wants a chance.
 
Tbf I don’t think I’d lay this one on the Democratic party - Harris herself should have seen it and made steps to address it.

The obvious strategy was to appeal to the 2016 primary voters who had selected Clinton over Sanders and who thought the current alternatives of Biden was too old and Warren too far left. Kamala is my senator and I although I know several Clinton 2016 primary voters not a single one had her as their top choice and if you can’t convince your target demographic in your home state you are in real trouble.

Yes, there would seem to be a clear path for someone who can present themselves as a younger and more capable Biden (his incompetence is the main reason why there were so many challengers) and I had thought it would be her. But she never even came close to matching his support among black voters, never mind anyone else. This is also why Buttigieg is probably not yet a serious contender.

I do think her failure reflects quite poorly on the people who run the party though, not least because despite all the contenders, they are very quickly running out of plausible non-Sanders alternatives, and her implosion upon lift-off is a much bigger opportunity cost than it might now seem.

But she deserved to crash and burn because she had absolutely nothing to say to anyone, and when she tried it was forced token means-testing gibberish which was immediately and deservedly savaged.

What is really damning is that even after the financial crisis and even after Trump, it still largely hasn't occurred to them that they need to think of something to say to someone who is raising kids while earning $8.50/hour at three different last-minute scheduled jobs, or to an over-educated under-employed 30-year-old with no future who depends on family loans to cover QE-inflated rent, terrible Obama health insurance, and student loan payments. They are still operating the 2008 playbook, where the same old policy gruel can be packaged in an emotional narrative, like ringworm pills in peanut butter for a dog, and where the default voter is an eminently comfortable yuppie/boomer who, certain that either party will serve their economic interests, sees politics entirely in aesthetic terms (I like ______ because she's smart; I like _____because he's a fresh face, I like ____________ because it's time this country had ___insert_minority_group_here___ in charge).

This End of History/The West Wing mindset is also why they are completely flummoxed by the enduring support for Sanders. They still inhabit a world where, as Alan Greenspan put it, "National security aside, it hardly makes any difference who will be the next president - The world is governed by market forces", and where the problems he is attempting to solve aren't real to them. Instead, they see youth enthusiasm for Sanders' ideas not as a practical response to circumstance, but a weird and incomprehensible fad, like mullets or tide pods. And this is why they are genuinely surprised and alarmed that his poll numbers mostly haven't changed.

It is surprising, and revealing, that Harris and her people were too dull to grasp this (I was expecting her to sound a lot more like Warren), but it's a reflection of how the party remains oriented primarily toward donors rather than voters, and that it still does not really care to understand never mind address the core issues of the generation that gave Obama ('The Man Who Taught An Entire Generation That Hope Was For Fools') two terms in the White House.

I'd be fairly sure she'll be back in 2024

She can try, but it would be equal parts hilarious and pathetic
 


What successful fascism in the United States will sound like.

It is basically a race (which will accelerate after the next crash) to see whether the right or the left can first and better articulate and capitalise on what he describes here... and it is also a race which the people who run the Democratic Party are determined to lose.
 


What successful fascism in the United States will sound like.

It is basically a race (which will accelerate after the next crash) to see whether the right or the left can first and better articulate and capitalise on what he describes here... and it is also a race which the people who run the Democratic Party are determined to lose.

I don't get it. How can he see the problem and rail so hard against the solution.
 
I don't get it. How can he see the problem and rail so hard against the solution.

Oh, sure, it is entirely cynical. It is not coincidence that they chose Singer, who was anti-Trump and not Robert Mercer, who paid for Trump.

But something is happening on the fringes of the right - Carlson, for instance, is full of praise for Warren - and it would be very risky not to think about what a more or less accurate economic argument sounds like coming from people to whom Nebraska has a long-standing cultural affinity.

If the right combines appeals to economic justice (cynical or otherwise) with the standard culture war fare, like the far right in Europe, and all the Dems have in response are Joe Biden and Chuck'n'Nancy (people who visually affirm the critique of 'coastal elites' that Carlson is making), then the political obliteration that follows knows no bounds.

To put it another way: in Sidney, Nebraska, doesn't it make just as much sense to direct your question to the Democrats? What would Goldman's Hillary Clinton have done to save Sidney? What did Barack Obama (who took more money from Wall Street than any before him and whose main objective in life is cashing in on his influence to become a billionaire) do?

I mean... had he not chosen politics, Buttigieg would still be at McKinsey brokering deals like the one that destroyed Sidney.

Democrat fans don't see their idols this way... but people in Nebraska do.
 

As the Democratic nomination race nears Iowa at long last, Amy Klobuchar sits with a resounding 2.4 percent in the RCP average of presidential primary polls.

Like several other candidates who’ve received lavish praise from the pundit gallery and a veritable pile of momentum stories from major media outlets, the Minnesota senator’s press attention has palpably failed to crystallize into significant or lasting popular support — with one extremely amusing difference: ephemeral and contrived as they may have been, the breathless, effusive media campaigns that aided the momentary surges of figures like Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke were at least accompanied by a noticeable uptick in a handful of polls.

Klobuchar, by contrast, has been an also-ran from the moment she entered the race, having failed to crack even the mid–single digits since announcing her candidacy in February. She’s a distant ninth in quarterly fundraising — behind the likes of Cory Booker, Andrew Yang, and Kamala Harris (who suspended her campaign this week) — and unless America’s liberal establishment somehow burns through its seemingly inexhaustible reserve of focus-tested centrists and billionaires before the polls close in Iowa, her position seems unlikely to shift.

None of this would matter in the slightest if elite pundits and marquee op-ed writers hadn’t been taking it upon themselves to tell us, again and again, that Klobuchar is both incredibly impressive and eminently electable. Indeed, perusing the coverage of the Minnesota senator’s perpetually flailing campaign, the casual reader might easily conclude that America is in the throes of chronic Amy Mania or, at any rate, that an insurgent Klobuchar breakthrough is mere days or weeks away.

Poll a representative sample of the nation’s leading pundits and you’ll discover that Klobuchar is an able and charismatic debater whom ordinary voters adore for her folksy charm, down-home affect, cuttingly dry sense of humor, and dogged commitment to political realism. Her debate performances always receive wide acclaim from the martini-soaked galleries at press viewing parties, and her campaign is currently receiving its fifth or sixth second look from a primary electorate some still insist is positively crying out for a Plainspoken Moderate whose biggest idea is expanded personal savings accounts.

So why, exactly, do elite pundits love Amy Klobuchar so much?

The simplest explanation is that some are more or less glorified sports commentators who revel in the kind of speculative, horse-racey, meta-commentary bullshit that now arguably comprises the vast majority of campaign coverage. Viewed in this way, democratic politics are mostly an amusing spectacle wherein various candidates compete on the basis of neatly taxonimizable personal attributes — like professional athletes or fantasy characters digitally rendered with +7 Electability and +15 Midwesternness for the latest release by EA Games. This was evidently the thinking behind a February analysis penned by pollster qua soothsayer Nate Silver entitled “How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The Democratic Nomination,” brimming with observations like the following:


The beer track . . . without the baggage? Klobuchar’s campaign is likely to emphasize her working-class Midwestern roots, her staff said; you’ll hear stuff about how her grandfather worked as an iron-ore miner, for instance. It will also pitch her to voters on candor, honesty, pragmatism, an ability to “get stuff done,” work ethic and so forth. It’s going to lean pretty heavily into her Midwesternness, in other words. The idea is to draw a contrast — probably softly at first, and maybe more explicitly if the campaign grows more combative — between Klobuchar and more left-wing candidates from the coasts, particularly Harris, Warren, Sanders and perhaps Booker. In some ways, this will recall the old distinction between “beer-track” (“flyover-state” moderates) and “wine-track” (coastal liberals) Democrats.

The preceding, of course, would make a bit more sense in a world where it was somehow possible to abstract a candidate’s “electability” from their popularity among actual people who cast votes. Given the obvious disconnect between her ostensible electability and her cavernous numbers, a bewildered Silver was thus forced to conclude of a recent poll unfavorable to Klobuchar: “[She] probably has one of the best electability arguments in the field, so the fact that she’s tied for last here is a sign that voters don’t really think about electability in the same way that political analysts do.”

Let that sink in for a moment.

However bleak her polling among the wider population might be, the Minnesota senator can at any rate rest easy knowing she’s doing well within the Pundit Track — a kind of special electorate for which elections are almost entirely aesthetic and political appeal has nothing to do with a politician’s ability to attract votes from real people. In this respect, she is the quintessential Beltway phenomenon: a Highly Electable Candidate with virtually no popular support. Satire hasn’t been this obsolete since Henry Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Nonetheless, there’s a bit more at work in Klobuchar’s narrow appeal than the superficial crushes she’s induced in a handful of pundits made giddy by her canned one-liners and tiresome, “aw-shucks” Midwesterner schtick. Run through the most effusive coverage her campaign has received, and you’ll repeatedly find something else in the mix: namely, that Klobuchar is a darling of the pundit class because her principal political message involves telling people wracked by angst and economic insecurity that they can’t and shouldn’t expect anything better.

Asked by a reporter to comment on the twin ideas of free college and the elimination of student debt a few weeks ago, for example, the candidate had this to say:

I just don’t agree with these policies and I also think that they know they most likely won’t go through because they don’t make any sense when you really take down the veneer and get them off a bumper sticker . . . but they just keep promising it.

Taken on its own, such a comment would merely be emblematic of the parochial way centrist liberals conceive of what’s possible. But Klobuchar’s follow-up when asked why anyone would dare to promise free college or the elimination of student debt in the first place offered the real kicker: “Because people like it. They like to hear that they’re going to get everything free. Right?” Watch the clip for yourself, and you’ll hear Klobuchar’s voice oozing the kind of paternalistic relish typically reserved for quietly brutal substitute teachers and conservative members of the clergy.

Some of the nation’s leading pundits evidently hear much the same thing when Klobuchar speaks, only they’ve decided it’s this very quality that makes her worthy of praise and admiration. Read through the most fawning coverage of the senator’s campaign, and you’ll find a cavalcade of well-heeled pundits telling us more or less explicitly that her tendency to reject policies the average person might actually like or benefit from is precisely what makes her so appealing:

“Perhaps the most important figure on the stage was Amy Klobuchar, by which I mean that she most readily accepted and aggressively played the necessary role of suggesting that the most progressive proposals — namely, Medicare for All, backed by both Warren and Bernie Sanders — existed in the realm not of the doable but of the dream-able, and that they weren’t going to fix needy Americans’ lives anytime soon.” — Frank Bruni
“In the 2020 field, two Democrats have the strongest track record of running as middle-class fighters: Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown . . . Both have also smartly avoided some ideas that play better with liberal Twitter than swing voters, like the fever dream of eliminating private health insurance . . . If I were Trump, I would fear Klobuchar.” — David Leonhardt
“Before last week, Beth Kundel Vogel was undecided when it came to the Democratic presidential hopefuls. But in the debate on Tuesday, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota impressed her by calling out Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts for offering voters a ‘pipe dream’ rather than a plan to pay for universal health care.” — Trip Gabriel
“As Senator Elizabeth Warren promised “big, structural change,” and Senator Bernie Sanders offered his brand of “political revolution,” Ms. Klobuchar was steadily reminding voters of the factors that have long mattered in national politics, at least before the election of a certain current president: expense, experience and electability. Now, as the moderate wing of the party reasserts itself in the primary campaign, her message of plain-spoken politics is drawing greater attention.” — Lisa Lerer
“Klobuchar has embraced her no-nonsense image of someone willing to tell constituents ‘no.’ She has developed an unusual signature move, namely debunk the pie-in-the-sky proposals of the staunch progressives, undaunted by their arguments that she is not thinking ‘big enough.’ If Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) do not win the nomination, much of the credit should go to Klobuchar, who has effectively grabbed the party by the lapels and told its members to ‘Snap out of it!’” — Jennifer Rubin

In an alternate timeline with a less hierarchical culture suffusing both media and politics, it would be difficult to imagine a candidate like Amy Klobuchar receiving such fulsome treatment from democracy’s so-called fourth estate. Most likely, her well-established reputation as one of Capitol Hill’s worst bosses would be considered instantly disqualifying, and she wouldn’t be running for president at all.

Boasting the highest rate of staff turnover for any member of the Senate last year, Klobuchar’s fondness for mistreating subordinates (which in 2015 even earned her a rebuke by Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid) has been widely reported — with former staffers describing “a workplace controlled by fear, anger, and shame” according to an investigation by BuzzFeed earlier this year. Among other things, Klobuchar has allegedly engaged in multiple efforts to shut down prospective job opportunities for members of her staff; thrown objects such as binders and phones in their direction; forced low-level employees “to perform duties they described as demeaning, like washing her dishes or other cleaning”; and emailed staff “at all hours of the day and night” with appraisals of their perceived incompetence. Her reputation as a boss is so bad it reportedly drove several people away from the opportunity to manage her presidential bid. As a February report from the Huffington Post described it, Klobuchar “defended her office as a ‘tough’ workplace that molds her employees for even greater challenges.”

If Klobuchar is well-liked among elite members of the media for her ability to affect a folksy charm while talking down to constituents, her reputation as the Hill’s most tyrannical boss certainly hasn’t proven any kind of hindrance — if anything, it’s evinced an eerily parallel appeal.

Reacting to a New York Times report entitled “How Amy Klobuchar Treats Her Staff” detailing (among other things) an occasion when the Minnesota senator is said to have told a subordinate “I would trade three of you for a bottle of water,” New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait chuckled: “This line makes me want to vote for Klobuchar.”
 


California has moved up its primary this year and if Sanders can get younger Latino voters to the polls that will be a huge advantage, especially if he can replicate that in other states.

Will be interesting to see where Harris supporters go
The poll was taken before California Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the race.It asked whom her supporters would name as their second choice if she quit and found that Warren and Biden would benefit the most. If Harris voters were reallocated based on those responses, the race would tighten at the top to Sanders, 25%; Warren, 24%; Biden, 17%; Buttigieg, 13%.
 
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