Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[BirkenheadBlue]

Unless Trump is locked in a prison cell, I can’t see them beating him.

Beto should have beaten Cruz in Texas but didn’t because Republicans end up being too scared of the word socialism, immigrants and everyone being on a level playing field.

Ummm... in 2018 Republicans lost by a historic margin, while running on the “be scared of immigrants” message.

Beto shouldn’t have been within spitting distance of Cruz state wide in Texas - no Democrat has been in years, but brought the race to within a couple of percentage points

Trump is historically unpopular, and won’t have the FBI coming out a week before the election to say they’re investigating his opponent (while failing to announce that they’re also investigating Trump for something significantly more serious).

 

[Ruairi77]

Unless Trump is locked in a prison cell, I can’t see them beating him.

Beto should have beaten Cruz in Texas but didn’t because Republicans end up being too scared of the word socialism, immigrants and everyone being on a level playing field.

Trump won, not because huge numbers turned out to vote for him but because of apathy on the part of Democratic voters.
Clinton didn't ignite any passion and there was a really low turnout (she still got more votes).
This changed during the mid terms. And given that most Americans are sick of trump, I'd say who ever runs against him has a very very good chance of winning.
For Trump to win, he has to count on independents and a turn out to match the dems, for this to happen he needs to go crisis free for the next year and a half.
I honestly cant see him going scandal free.
Then there's small things like ex felons in Florida getting the vote.
I think Trumps goose is cooked, but I thought that in 2016 too!

 

[Connor]

Ummm... in 2018 Republicans lost by a historic margin, while running on the “be scared of immigrants” message.

Beto shouldn’t have been within spitting distance of Cruz state wide in Texas - no Democrat has been in years, but brought the race to within a couple of percentage points

Trump is historically unpopular, and won’t have the FBI coming out a week before the election to say they’re investigating his opponent (while failing to announce that they’re also investigating Trump for something significantly more serious).

I get all that but still, republicans - and trumps fanatical fan base - will turn out to make sure that someone who can better their life isn’t elected.

If he’s in prison, they’ll win.

If it’s Trump vs any sort of left-leaning politician, he’ll get re-elected. And I say this as one of biggest optimists in left politcs.

 

[DanEFC92]

My expectations are so low they're right next to 'kin dinosaur bones

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

I get all that but still, republicans - and trumps fanatical fan base - will turn out to make sure that someone who can better their life isn’t elected.

If he’s in prison, they’ll win.

If it’s Trump vs any sort of left-leaning politician, he’ll get re-elected. And I say this as one of biggest optimists in left politcs.

Fair enough if that’s your opinion, but you can’t hold that opinion and call yourself an optimist, because it’s just not rooted in any sort of data or reality.

Trump’s base isn’t sufficient to win him the election, CERTAINLY not in the face of enthusiastic turnout from Democrats.

Basically what @Ruairi77 said above.

The difference between now and 2016 is that the independents who held their nose and voted for Trump on the (widely held, at the time) belief that he’d moderate himself and “grow into” the role of President will no longer have any such misapprehensions.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

My expectations are so low they're right next to 'kin dinosaur bones

It’s not done and dusted, but I don’t understand how people can see what happened in November and still be THAT pessimistic.

 

[DanEFC92]

It’s not done and dusted, but I don’t understand how people can see what happened in November and still be THAT pessimistic.

Been burnt by too many votes past few years; in the states and at home to be optimistic.

It's a bit like supporting Everton.

 

[BlueTX]

Been burnt by too many votes past few years; in the states and at home to be optimistic.

It's a bit like supporting Everton.

Ain't that the f***ing truth.

 

[SteveSC]

I bet by this December most of these candidates won't be in the race. I say December but that is being generous most will be done before then.

It will likely be four or five going into the primary next year.

Sanders, Harris and Warren will be three of them. It's a crap shoot on the rest of them. I don't think Biden will run. he hasn't even announced if he will yet has he?

I really hope Warren is told to sit down and forget about it. The whole native American thing is embarrassing and it's mad after all of it she thinks she is a viable candidate.

Sanders isn't a democrat and some of his ideas are too far left for some of the Democrats. I personally think Trump will beat him. We will have a Clinton style division again if he is the candidate. Now that's not to say i don't like him i actually do and would probably vote for him unless there is someone better.

Harris has a real shot in my opinion.

 

[ilikecheese]

Been burnt by too many votes past few years; in the states and at home to be optimistic.

It's a bit like supporting Everton.

The midterms buoyed me some. Especially in a place like Arizona where Trump won by 4.1%. Sinema beat McSally by 3.4%...a 7.5% flip for the Senate. McSally ran a similar scorched Earth type of campaign that Trump did.

 

[abelard]

Sanders isn't a democrat

This is true, and it has long been one of the more appealing things about him.

On the other hand, Sanders was made to utterly eat s*** by the corrupt and incompetent DNC, which Hilary effectively bought as her personal plaything after the Obamas ran the party into insolvency lavishing their friends with sinecure consultantships.

They openly tipped the scales against him, even before the superdelegates finished the job.

He then went on to campaign far more effectively for Clinton than the Clinton team itself.

People (and I'm not saying you, Steve) who moan that Sanders should run as an independent would do well to consider that his willingness to endure the Democratic Party is the only reason why it remains a viable political organisation.

Without him and his supporters on board, they'd lose to Trump and worse by at least 15 points every time.

 

[Ron Swanson]

I'm the sole Beto voter on the pole. I'm surprised no one else has backed him. What he did in Texas was mightily impressive. And, like Sanders, was getting donations from thousands of ordinary voters - grassroots funding could be vital in such a crowded field of Democrats in the primaries.

He mobilised youth, made headlines and raised his profile countrywide. I generally like his politics and, importantly for many Americans, he has a presidential air about him.

If he wins the nomination and all the other nominees (especially Bernie) get behind him, he stands as good a chance as anyone. At the very least, he'd make a good running mate for one of the older candidates - that popularity in Texas could be vital.

 

[abelard]

I generally like his politics

what are they, though?

 

[SteveSC]

This is true, and it has long been one of the more appealing things about him.

On the other hand, Sanders was made to utterly eat s*** by the corrupt and incompetent DNC, which Hilary effectively bought as her personal plaything after the Obamas ran the party into insolvency lavishing their friends with sinecure consultantships.

They openly tipped the scales against him, even before the superdelegates finished the job.

He then went on to campaign far more effectively for Clinton than the Clinton team itself.

People (and I'm not saying you, Steve) who moan that Sanders should run as an independent would do well to consider that his willingness to endure the Democratic Party is the only reason why it remains a viable political organisation.

Without him and his supporters on board, they'd lose to Trump and worse by at least 15 points every time.

I actually thought it made sense for him to run as a democrat otherwise we would have been in a similar issue like we are now with that starbucks idiot trying to run as an independent.

I completely agree with you also.

When i said he wasn't a democrat what i was driving at was exactly what you said. It will likely be the case that they will angle toward someone else yet again. hopefully that someone would be far better than campaigning than Clinton was.

He has great support and rightly so. I do agree with that.

It's not good though when you have a real chance to oust The orange clown though to act and disrupt like it was before. They need to figure it out quickly. Tell the deadwood candidates to drop out and sensibly back the main two or three to the point of the primary for serious discussion and decision.

But again i don't think Sanders will beat Trump as much as i like him too.

 

[Ron Swanson]

what are they, though?

Hard to get the full national picture given that he's most recently been canvassing in Texas. His economic approach was soft left, or raging socialist if you're a Republican. I don't think I can recall a Senate race where a democrat didn't just play the centrist game in Texas. Beto ran an overtly liberal campaign.

He's pretty much on message with the Democrats on key social issues, gun control, education etc. Immigration will be a key battleground and his Texas campaign was quite astute on that - humane and unhysterical. And unlike many Dems, he seemed to strike a chord with rural voters.

I'm just surprised he's got fewer votes in our poll than Oprah Winfrey.