Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[tsubaki]

I think, if anything, the appetite for clear and tangible change is even bigger than the one that was partially responsible for legitimising the Trump campaign in 2016. I hope the Democrats don't make the mistake of thinking that Trump's presidency will be widely viewed as a disaster when people get into those booths, and that any sort of establishment told-you-so candidate will be embraced as a way of resetting the clock. Some of these Democratic candidates suggest to me that a few lessons haven't been learned.

As we see with TIG over here, some people are incapable of learning lessons no matter how often, or how badly, they get beat.

 

[Ruairi77]

As I've mentioned, I prefer Sanders but would be pleased if Warren won. Of course, this is looking unlikely so far (though it's a certainty she would play a major role in any Sanders government).

It is disappointing but not surprising to see her ideas overlooked by candidates offering nothing more than the same tired 'identity politics', in the sense that their own individual identities and biographies are the only form of 'politics' they dare publicly proffer.

Beyond Sanders and Warren, the other candidates represent fundamentally different objectives on behalf of fundamentally different interests, which... I do not support.

There is tendency, in corporate news and thus on here too, to think about and frame the Democratic Primary like it's the Best Actor award at the Oscars, and that they're all substantively similar and all on the same team in the fight against the Very Bad Man.

But what is actually going on is an extremely bitter and increasingly frantic struggle for control of the Party between those who've run it into the ground, creating (and still very much hoping to restore) the status quo that delivered Trump; and those who have better ideas.

The former would rather lose to Trump again than lose to the latter. This is why they are once again scrambling to undermine the overwhelming front-runner (and by far the most popular politician in the country), throwing a procession of curated attempts to embody what the hundred or so Washington- and New York-based political journalists imagine Middle America wants in a candidate against the wall, in the hopes that someone else, anyone else, will stick.

Should they actually pull it off, they'll of course be extremely pleased with themselves, and it could even prove sufficient for the general given Trump's unpopularity (though this is always less certain than the outcome of midterm elections suggests). But it would also represent still more of the short-sighted, narrow-minded and ultimately counter-productive thinking for which the Democratic Party has become so well known of late.

It is a dangerous mistake to presume that Trump arose for no real reason other than dumb luck and Evil; that he is the cause of all America's problems rather than a symptom; and that the forces he has articulated and emboldened will just go away, if we just put someone in the White House who reminds us of that fuzzy patriotic feeling we had while watching The West Wing.

One need only look at Canada or France to see the inevitable failure of dashing media-friendly liberal dreamboats offering the same tired platitudes but changing nothing, and, coming soon, we will also see how dangerous their failures can be.

It a bit odd to suggest in one sentence that beyond Warren and Sanders, the other candidates are all the same, only offering tired identity politics. Then in the next line you say there's a tendency on here to think all the candidates are substantively similar! People, who are interested at this point (in particular on here), know the difference between Gabbard and Klobuchar.
I think you're bang on about the fight for the soul of the democratic party. Bernie, being an independent, laid the ground work for that fight but a new younger cohort has moved in to take over the fight. It's ridiculous to assume that moderate old guard dems would rather Trump win than a progressive left democrat.

On Sanders, I'm not sure where you're living these days but the buzz for him is gone
Bernie is doing well in the polls with his base and on name recognition but I only see his poll numbers shrinking.
I highly doubt he's the most popular politician in America (never mind by far).
Even you have gone from him being the only choice to him or Warren, and we're only getting going.

I don't think anyone assumes Trump arose solely due to dumb luck and evil.

In summary, there is a hunger for an actual Democrat (not an outsider/independent), be they left or center to run against Trump. The safe money is on this being Biden. It's up to other more exciting candidates to challenge him. In 2019 Sanders is no longer exciting and wont be in the running for the nomination.
I think you're being pretty hard on the supporters of Beto or Pete, I actually think by this time next year at least one of them will be in a stronger position than Sanders.

 

[Prevenger17]

It a bit odd to suggest in one sentence that beyond Warren and Sanders, the other candidates are all the same, only offering tired identity politics. Then in the next line you say there's a tendency on here to think all the candidates are substantively similar! People, who are interested at this point (in particular on here), know the difference between Gabbard and Klobuchar.
I think you're bang on about the fight for the soul of the democratic party. Bernie, being an independent, laid the ground work for that fight but a new younger cohort has moved in to take over the fight. It's ridiculous to assume that moderate old guard dems would rather Trump win than a progressive left democrat.

On Sanders, I'm not sure where you're living these days but the buzz for him is gone
Bernie is doing well in the polls with his base and on name recognition but I only see his poll numbers shrinking.
I highly doubt he's the most popular politician in America (never mind by far).
Even you have gone from him being the only choice to him or Warren, and we're only getting going.

I don't think anyone assumes Trump arose solely due to dumb luck and evil.

In summary, there is a hunger for an actual Democrat (not an outsider/independent), be they left or center to run against Trump. The safe money is on this being Biden. It's up to other more exciting candidates to challenge him. In 2019 Sanders is no longer exciting and wont be in the running for the nomination.
I think you're being pretty hard on the supporters of Beto or Pete, I actually think by this time next year at least one of them will be in a stronger position than Sanders.

Beto is one grim candidate, and I really think time is going to tell on that one. He's already started apologising for all sorts of inconsequential things on the campaign trail, and he demonstrates very few core leadership qualities or consistency of message. Abelard posted an article earlier that was basically an anti-intellectual hitpiece. It was a fairly crap article tbf (sorry Abelard) but it touches on something of a truth. Intelligence alone isn't enough. It won't be enough to beat Trump, and it's not enough for a successful presidency. Beto doesn't even know where he stands on anything, and his persona feels manufactured. Come game time, I don't think the electorate will be insensitive to that fact. Added to that, I'd personally be nervous imagining him doing any sort of high level negotiations on behalf of my country. Warren and Sanders are leagues above O'Rourke in terms of personality and leadership

 

[tsubaki]

It a bit odd to suggest in one sentence that beyond Warren and Sanders, the other candidates are all the same, only offering tired identity politics. Then in the next line you say there's a tendency on here to think all the candidates are substantively similar! People, who are interested at this point (in particular on here), know the difference between Gabbard and Klobuchar.
I think you're bang on about the fight for the soul of the democratic party. Bernie, being an independent, laid the ground work for that fight but a new younger cohort has moved in to take over the fight. It's ridiculous to assume that moderate old guard dems would rather Trump win than a progressive left democrat.

On Sanders, I'm not sure where you're living these days but the buzz for him is gone
Bernie is doing well in the polls with his base and on name recognition but I only see his poll numbers shrinking.
I highly doubt he's the most popular politician in America (never mind by far).
Even you have gone from him being the only choice to him or Warren, and we're only getting going.

I don't think anyone assumes Trump arose solely due to dumb luck and evil.

In summary, there is a hunger for an actual Democrat (not an outsider/independent), be they left or center to run against Trump. The safe money is on this being Biden. It's up to other more exciting candidates to challenge him. In 2019 Sanders is no longer exciting and wont be in the running for the nomination.
I think you're being pretty hard on the supporters of Beto or Pete, I actually think by this time next year at least one of them will be in a stronger position than Sanders.

I think you make some good points here but then throw all of them away with the reference to Beto at the end. Beto is horrifying, exactly what the Democratic establishment's comfort blanket would look like if turned into human form and if he does end up in a stronger position than Sanders then the Dems are going to get an even worse shoeing than they got in 2016. Buttigieg would be better, but not by much.

The choice that the Democratic establishment has now is between actual change (and many of them lose power) or notional change (and they don't). If they go for the former Trump is very beatable, because the policies that the likes of Sanders will present will take out a lot of Trump's base because they would benefit from them. If they choose to stay in power they will lose, probably worse than 2016, because they'll run the same failed race.

 

[LinekersLegs]

There is tendency, in corporate news and thus on here too, to think about and frame the Democratic Primary like it's the Best Actor award at the Oscars, and that they're all substantively similar and all on the same team in the fight against the Very Bad Man.

But what is actually going on is an extremely bitter and increasingly frantic struggle for control of the Party between those who've run it into the ground, creating (and still very much hoping to restore) the status quo that delivered Trump; and those who have better ideas.

One of the things that I think Clinton got wrong was she often gave off an “I’m entitled to the nomination rather than will earn it” vibe and a “how dare you criticize me and any criticism is obviously bad faith”. I think it made her complacent and fail to do the necessary listening to peoples genuine concerns (or even pretending to listen) and work to persuade them that her proposed solutions would help.

Are you not concerned that Bernie might fall into the same trap? Certainly a lot of the framing I have seen lately is “they are out to get me” exemplified the war of words with CAP and digs at Bete/Buttigeig.

I don’t disagree that there are lots of corporate interests that do not want to see Sanders win the nomination. Anecdotally however I have heard a number of my left leaning older female friends express concerns regarding Sanders “how do we pay for all this” or “I like the idea of Medicare for all but how do we go from where we are now?” Fwiw they have far less reservations about Warren as “she has a plan” although I believe most of them plan to vote for Biden if he enters.

 

[tsubaki]

One of the things that I think Clinton got wrong was she often gave off an “I’m entitled to the nomination rather than will earn it” vibe and a “how dare you criticize me and any criticism is obviously bad faith”. I think it made her complacent and fail to do the necessary listening to peoples genuine concerns (or even pretending to listen) and work to persuade them that her proposed solutions would help.

Are you not concerned that Bernie might fall into the same trap? Certainly a lot of the framing I have seen lately is “they are out to get me” exemplified the war of words with CAP and digs at Bete/Buttigeig.

I don’t disagree that there are lots of corporate interests that do not want to see Sanders win the nomination. Anecdotally however I have heard a number of my left leaning older female friends express concerns regarding Sanders “how do we pay for all this” or “I like the idea of Medicare for all but how do we go from where we are now?” Fwiw they have far less reservations about Warren as “she has a plan” although I believe most of them plan to vote for Biden if he enters.

The argument for single payer certainly needs far more work on it, or rather far more honesty - he (and anyone else genuinely backing it) has to admit that the result of the much lower cost (and it would be - to repeat myself, just what the US pays for Medicaid / Medicare now would be enough to fund a US NHS) is going to be that doctors (especially), medical administrators and the like are going to take considerable hits in terms of their earnings, and the majority of people who work in medical insurance is going to be out of a job.

 

[Jebus_lives]

One of the things that I think Clinton got wrong was she often gave off an “I’m entitled to the nomination rather than will earn it” vibe and a “how dare you criticize me and any criticism is obviously bad faith”. I think it made her complacent and fail to do the necessary listening to peoples genuine concerns (or even pretending to listen) and work to persuade them that her proposed solutions would help.

Are you not concerned that Bernie might fall into the same trap? Certainly a lot of the framing I have seen lately is “they are out to get me” exemplified the war of words with CAP and digs at Bete/Buttigeig.

I don’t disagree that there are lots of corporate interests that do not want to see Sanders win the nomination. Anecdotally however I have heard a number of my left leaning older female friends express concerns regarding Sanders “how do we pay for all this” or “I like the idea of Medicare for all but how do we go from where we are now?” Fwiw they have far less reservations about Warren as “she has a plan” although I believe most of them plan to vote for Biden if he enters.

I think that's just her personality.

 

[LinekersLegs]

The argument for single payer certainly needs far more work on it, or rather far more honesty - he (and anyone else genuinely backing it) has to admit that the result of the much lower cost (and it would be - to repeat myself, just what the US pays for Medicaid / Medicare now would be enough to fund a US NHS) is going to be that doctors (especially), medical administrators and the like are going to take considerable hits in terms of their earnings, and the majority of people who work in medical insurance is going to be out of a job.

Exactly.

And since several of my friends are already on Medicare they are worried that the Medicare for all plan calls for transitioning to another universal plan - do they get to keep their doctors that they like?

 

[LinekersLegs]

I think that's just her personality.

Personally I found the way Bernie handled the release of his taxes very Clintonish and his “you too can be a millionaire if you write a successful book” pretty condescending and tone deaf.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Personally I found the way Bernie handled the release of his taxes very Clintonish and his “you too can be a millionaire if you write a successful book” pretty condescending and tone deaf.

Agreed. It didn't portray him in the greatest light.

 

[tsubaki]

Exactly.

And since several of my friends are already on Medicare they are worried that the Medicare for all plan calls for transitioning to another universal plan - do they get to keep their doctors that they like?

That is why they should explain it better. "What will happen to my plan?" is a conversation you don't have to have when you explain that you will no longer need a plan - get sick, see a doctor, get fixed, go home.

 

[LinekersLegs]

That is why they should explain it better. "What will happen to my plan?" is a conversation you don't have to have when you explain that you will no longer need a plan - get sick, see a doctor, get fixed, go home.

Which doctor is an important element though, especially those who have been through something like cancer or dealing with a chronic issue as continuity/trust is important.

 

[Ruairi77]

I think you make some good points here but then throw all of them away with the reference to Beto at the end. Beto is horrifying, exactly what the Democratic establishment's comfort blanket would look like if turned into human form and if he does end up in a stronger position than Sanders then the Dems are going to get an even worse shoeing than they got in 2016. Buttigieg would be better, but not by much.

The choice that the Democratic establishment has now is between actual change (and many of them lose power) or notional change (and they don't). If they go for the former Trump is very beatable, because the policies that the likes of Sanders will present will take out a lot of Trump's base because they would benefit from them. If they choose to stay in power they will lose, probably worse than 2016, because they'll run the same failed race.

I wasn’t advocating for Beto (or Pete for that matter) more just trying to point out what I see around here re. Bernie buzz. I will vote for Warren

 

[LinekersLegs]

Anyone watching this?

 

[LinekersLegs]

So a student just asked a similar question to Sanders that I raised above - how do you intend to phase out private insurance comapanies for your “Medicare for all plan”? Bernie started on year 1, said who he would expand Medicare and promised great benefits.....but never got to how he would do any of it.