Current Affairs 2017 General Election

[abelard]

It does strike me as odd that everyone is carrying on as though Corbyn won the election. 90% of the constituencies in the election failed to change hands. This was hardly a Damascun conversion.

True, but:

They are in a vastly stronger position than before the election was called. They all but made up a 20 point gap in the polls in six weeks, by mobilizing huge numbers of people who previously didn't vote or voted for other parties. They attracted more new votes than in any election since 1945, besting even Blair's record. More important still, they have room to grow, unlike the Tories, and they've established a savvy, dedicated grassroots network to build on what's already been accomplished. As @neil999 points out, they are now competitive in scores of previously safe Tory ridings, and likely need only an additional 2-3% swing to win a majority. Additionally, the results have gone some way to mollifying the Party's internal bickering and self-inflicted wounds. They enjoy (dare I say) all the momentum heading into the next contest, which is probably why the Tories haven't ditched May immediately.

And beyond the bean-counting, there are the more significant immediate effects. Brexit is now more likely to be pointless rather than suicidal, and even dark austerity warlocks like Gove are starting to backtrack on public service cuts.

You actually have to be trying very hard not to grasp the impact.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

True, but:

They are in a vastly stronger position than before the election was called. They all but made up a 20 point gap in the polls in six weeks, by mobilizing huge numbers of people who previously didn't vote or voted for other parties. They attracted more new votes than in any election since 1945, besting even Blair's record. More important still, they have room to grow, unlike the Tories, and they've established a savvy, dedicated grassroots network to build on what's already been accomplished. As @neil999 points out, they are now competitive in scores of previously safe Tory ridings, and likely need only an additional 2-3% swing to win a majority. Additionally, the results have gone some way to mollifying the Party's internal bickering and self-inflicted wounds. They enjoy (dare I say) all the momentum heading into the next contest, which is probably why the Tories haven't ditched May immediately.

And beyond the bean-counting, there are the more significant immediate effects. Brexit is now more likely to be pointless rather than suicidal, and even dark austerity warlocks like Gove are starting to backtrack on public service cuts.

You actually have to be trying very hard not to grasp the impact.

Oh for sure, the swing in a relatively short space of time was nothing short of staggering. I've said elsewhere though, I'm still not entirely sure how much insight we can derive from that. We know the swing happened, but we don't know (as far as I'm aware) quite why it happened. We know May was utterly awful. We know Corbyn exceeded expectations quite considerably. We don't know which of these was more important in securing votes, and especially votes from people that wouldn't ordinarily vote Labour. I know there were many Labour voters who said they couldn't vote for Corbyn, for instance. If they were confident enough to vote for him then it's great (for Labour), but they remain traditional Labour voters. You could perhaps extrapolate that many new voters turned out for Labour, but few Tories/swing voters switched over to the red side. What does appear certain however is that Corbyn is the cat that got the cream, and he has certainly silenced the doubters in his own party. I suppose another potential point of interest is his age. Assuming the Tories see out a full term, he'd be 72 by the time of the next campaign, which would make him the oldest first time prime minister in British history.

As you know I'm thoroughly depressed by the way things have gone in the last few years, but it is interesting nonetheless.

 

[mezzrow]

I'd imagine Corbyn is rhyming more with the rise of Sanders here.
They only thing Trump rhymes with is orange.

Bernie and Jezza is easy to see. More important, all three (and Brexit) were considered equally unlikely to the professional political establishment five years ago. They'll be the last to see the truth of it, but that won't stop them from printing reams of expert opinion all the while.

Trump only rhymes with "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore..." This doesn't have a comic strip named after it, though it could.

There's a right and left version of that sentiment, neither of which is taken seriously by the supposed masters of the political universe until it gets too late to stop it.

If the Tories don't catch a clue, they'll straight hand it to Corbyn before they're done. There will be a cracking party here if and when they do.

Then it's all on Jezza. I wish him luck. He'll need it.

 

[Connor]

He makes me very happy and positive for the future.

 

[davek]

True, but:They are in a vastly stronger position than before the election was called. They all but made up a 20 point gap in the polls in six weeks, by mobilizing huge numbers of people who previously didn't vote or voted for other parties. They attracted more new votes than in any election since 1945, besting even Blair's record. More important still, they have room to grow, unlike the Tories, and they've established a savvy, dedicated grassroots network to build on what's already been accomplished. As @neil999 points out, they are now competitive in scores of previously safe Tory ridings, and likely need only an additional 2-3% swing to win a majority. Additionally, the results have gone some way to mollifying the Party's internal bickering and self-inflicted wounds. They enjoy (dare I say) all the momentum heading into the next contest, which is probably why the Tories haven't ditched May immediately.

And beyond the bean-counting, there are the more significant immediate effects. Brexit is now more likely to be pointless rather than suicidal, and even dark austerity warlocks like Gove are starting to backtrack on public service cuts.

You actually have to be trying very hard not to grasp the impact.

The Corbyn leadership has not only saved the skins of those Quislings, it also put a few thousand on their majorities to make them virtually bomb proof at the next election (short of some massive swing due to unforeseen circumstances). However, to enjoy that privilege they need to give at least their acquiescence to the Corbyn leadership else they'll see the army of support that props them up desert them. Personally, I think it's now time to crack on with deselection of any MP who creates trouble. The political economy is now in the LP's favour and austerity and the economic nationalism of the Tories is in retreat. Therefore there wont be any danger of distracting from the task at hand of defeating the Tories whilst booting any refuseniks out of the party.

A purge is long overdue. Do it now in a position of strength and cleanse the LP for all time of the Blairite neo-liberals who infiltrated and seized control of the party in the 1990s.

 

[Jib in lad]

So the Tories are going to give the DUP tax payers money for hospitals ect in exchange for votes surely that is wrong.

 

[roydo]

So the Tories are going to give the DUP tax payers money for hospitals ect in exchange for votes surely that is wrong.

Its called politics.

 

[abelard]

Oh for sure, the swing in a relatively short space of time was nothing short of staggering. I've said elsewhere though, I'm still not entirely sure how much insight we can derive from that. We know the swing happened, but we don't know (as far as I'm aware) quite why it happened. We know May was utterly awful. We know Corbyn exceeded expectations quite considerably. We don't know which of these was more important in securing votes, and especially votes from people that wouldn't ordinarily vote Labour. I know there were many Labour voters who said they couldn't vote for Corbyn, for instance. If they were confident enough to vote for him then it's great (for Labour), but they remain traditional Labour voters. You could perhaps extrapolate that many new voters turned out for Labour, but few Tories/swing voters switched over to the red side. What does appear certain however is that Corbyn is the cat that got the cream, and he has certainly silenced the doubters in his own party. I suppose another potential point of interest is his age. Assuming the Tories see out a full term, he'd be 72 by the time of the next campaign, which would make him the oldest first time prime minister in British history.

As you know I'm thoroughly depressed by the way things have gone in the last few years, but it is interesting nonetheless.

May increased the Tory share of vote by 5.5 points, which is actually a substantial upward swing. It was the Tories' best result in that regard in 30 years. Even Thatcher only once (barely) topped it. I just don't think they have much room to grow. Plus, some voters will be repelled by the DUP bargain, or the simple fact that they just look a shambles now, even before they revert to tearing themselves apart again over Europe. They don't really have any plausible leaders who weren't already deemed less credible than May, and she was by far their most centrist leader in a generation, at a time when the centre has clearly shifted left.

Meanwhile, by all accounts, the Labour canvassers were at first deeply skeptical about the exit poll, as they'd reported significant anti-Corbyn sentiment from traditional core voters. This suggests that Corbyn succeeded despite them not turning out, or protest voting - it might be too early to tell. But now, presumably, they'll at least reconsider. The fact the Corbyn is undeniably a plausible winner changes everything. Labour has so much more room to grow, and only needs to boost its share by a relatively small percentage to start flipping seats en masse. I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep improving at the SNP's expense, for instance - the unifying messianic character of independence politics tends to be quickly dashed after failure to deliver. Cities, educated voters, under 30s, remainers, ethnic and religious minorities, anti-austerity UKIPers, inspired Greens, SNP and Lib Dems, and the traditional northern heartlands make for a pretty respectable coalition.

Time will tell, but I think you're overestimating how much steam is left in this generation of Tories.

 

[Jib in lad]

Its called politics.

Sounds like bribery to me.

 

[Clint Planet]

It does strike me as odd that everyone is carrying on as though Corbyn won the election. 90% of the constituencies in the election failed to change hands. This was hardly a Damascun conversion.

You know, it's disingenuous posts like that that stop people from completely trusting you, Bruce.

You know as well as anyone else precisely why there is such a furore about the election result.

Either quit the William Rees-Mogg impression or shut up with the thread-crapping.

 

[Clint Planet]

Sounds like bribery to me.

Of course it is.

 

[tsubaki]

Anyone watching this press conference with Macron? She has learned absolutely nothing from the general election result.

 

[tsubaki]

Meanwhile, by all accounts, the Labour canvassers were at first deeply skeptical about the exit poll, as they'd reported significant anti-Corbyn sentiment from traditional core voters. This suggests that Corbyn succeeded despite them not turning out, or protest voting - it might be too early to tell. But now, presumably, they'll at least reconsider. The fact the Corbyn is undeniably a plausible winner changes everything. Labour has so much more room to grow, and only needs to boost its share by a relatively small percentage to start flipping seats en masse.

The only thing I'd add to this is that it is vital to acknowledge that most of the people reporting the deep skepticism about Corbyn on the doorstep were people who were deeply skeptical about him and who had spent nearly two years telling everyone how deeply skeptical they were.

These were not dis-interested voices honestly reporting what they had found, and indeed the result should suggest that they were being less than honest.

 

[roydo]

Its called politics.

Sounds like bribery to me.

Of course it is.

Kind of go hand in hand dont they?

Not saying it is right, but history is littered with grubby deals, undeliverable manifesto commitments, or bribes if you prefer, and down right lies.

On all sides.

The contrary in me would like to see this unholy alliance fail, but if/when it does, I am far from convinced there will be a stampede to the Corbyn camp. It truly is an utter mess.

And, lets remember, caused by a populist UKIP leader, a gutless PM in Cameron, followed by a non party alligned referendum vote.

 

[The binman chronicles]

So the Tories are going to give the DUP tax payers money for hospitals ect in exchange for votes surely that is wrong.

As far as i'm aware they don't check to see what political party you voted for before giving treatment. It will be a benefit to all the people of NI.