Current Affairs 2017 General Election

[The binman chronicles]

They had the former NI secretary on the radio before and he wasn't impressed with current goings on.

I don't know the details so i could be wide of the mark, but were these Labour NI secretaries?

If so aren't we just being fed doomsday scenarios in the exact same way you'd expect the Tories to do if Labour had 300 seats and joined with the SNP?

Obviously the 'unique' political situation over there lends itself easily to people thinking the worst, but I'm pretty sure if anything was to cause long term damage to the Tories they would sacrifice Pawn May and force her to run a minority government with very moderate legislation until they get their house in order and pick someone inside the party to go against Corbyn.

Makes no sense to stir the hornet's nest when they know there will be likely an election in the Autumn but if not within a couple of years max.

 

[roydo]

Makes no sense to stir the hornet's nest when they know their will be likely an election in the Autumn but if not within a couple of years max.

My thoughts exactly.

It would be a zero win decision to do anything. The GFA has worked. Sure, some on the lunatic fringes of both sides would disagree, but not a chance that any UK PM, (even one as weak as May) would poke that nest.

 

[bring the ghost on]

Our ex Tory MP is taking it well

Oh dear.

 

[Blue 1]

So has Thatcher in the Rye decided to how long Parliament is going to be closed for yet?

 

[Groucho]

Is anyone? IMO, this arrangement, if it actually happens, is purely a flag on convenience to get us in front of the EU with a signed off Queens Speech.

May can spout all she likes about serving a full term and other assembled nonsense. The chances of any alterations to the GFA are less than zero imo.

I voted labour personally, however 99% of people must agree that she's toast.

 

[The binman chronicles]

I voted labour personally, however 99% of people must agree that she's toast.

Yep and that isn't even a Raiola 99%

I think the Tories would ideally like her to get to the end of brexit talks, (possibly bringing in cross party discussions so that everyone can be blamed equally when it goes tits up) that would give chance for time to remove a bit of the Corbyn momentum and shortly after the deal is done it will be like Jon Snow's death in GoT.

 

[Groucho]

Yep and that isn't even a Raiola 99%

I think the Tories would ideally like her to get to the end of brexit talks, (possibly bringing in cross party discussions so that everyone can be blamed equally when it goes tits up) that would give chance for time to remove a bit of the Corbyn momentum and shortly after the deal is done it will be like Jon Snow's death in GoT.

To clarify, we've never killed anyone called Jon Snow here at GOT.

@roydo killed @Bryan once but he got better.

 

[Armel]

My thoughts exactly.

It would be a zero win decision to do anything. The GFA has worked. Sure, some on the lunatic fringes of both sides would disagree, but not a chance that any UK PM, (even one as weak as May) would poke that nest.

Don't see the need for extra NI drama to be fair. They should focus on the whole Brexit thing imo; minority government, crossparty whatever ... The EU negotiation team is a formidable force. A bit late now for things like what kind of Brexit etc. The clock is already ticking, huge negotiations (quantity + quality) very little time. You can't pause the deadline, extensions are only possible when all 27 agree (quite impossible since everybody wants the whole thing to be over before the new European elections).

Also negotiations always contain points of compromise, how is she's going to get people in line with such a small majority. The whole thing looks doomed before it started.

 

[bring the ghost on]

Not a chance that any UK PM, (even one as weak as May) would poke that nest.

I think you under-estimate Theresa May's vain pursuit of power.

 

[davmaher]

To clarify, we've never killed anyone called Jon Snow here at GOT.

@roydo killed @Bryan once but he got better.

So did Jon Snow.

 

[ToffeeTim]

It compromises the neutrality, which to the GF agreement, is crucial.

It's a different time now and there's so many changes and dirty deals been made that the GFA is so diluted. Also there's no appetite for violence thankfully so no one can gain anything from threatening it. It's hypocrisy from labour tbh. They courted the DUP themselves in 2010 and tried to form a coalition.

The only people claiming the peace process is in danger are English. And to be honest it's nonsense.

 

[Jib in lad]

Oh dear.

 

[Khalekan]

I think it's incredibly selfish to cling on to power at the possible expense of the GF agreement and stability in NI.

True.....but sadly not without precedent.

Playing the "Orange card" was a tactic used by the Conservative Party in the early 1900s when they stymied the Home Rule Bill and collided with Unionists to run guns into Ireland in 1912, an action which led to the Nationalists tooling up and the rest, as we know, is over a century of intermittent warfare.

The GFA, whilst by no means perfect, was inching Ulster along a peaceful path where political violence had become almost unthinkable.

Brexit started to sour things with the prospect of the border being re-introduced and all the ill feeling that would entail....and one imagines the DUP will be looking to roll back some on the reforms the GFA brought about as they have never been fully in support of it anyway.

That this May woman would risk all this just to whore out her short term political future, for surely she is a dead woman walking anyway, is just plain shameful.

Never have the words of the great Irish patriot, Theobald Wolfe Tone rang so true when he said, in relation to England...."that never endung source of all our troubles"

And he said that in the 18th century.

 

[Khalekan]

May really should have resigned. To call an election just days before vital Brexit talks shows amazing misjudgement.
Saying "I'll get us out of this mess etc" only compounds the damage to her reputation.
Of course that remark was directed at Tory MPs. She couldn't give a monkey's about the rest of us.

But this the whole thing about the EU Referendum and the recent election.

The Referendum was all about Cameron trying to win the civil war over Europe that had raged inside the Tory party fir decades.

He lost.

May called the election to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and smite her critics within her her own party.

She lost.

These people care about no one but themselves.

 

[hullefc]

The Good Friday Agreement.

The Belfast Agreement

Contentious issue number 1. European Court of Human Rights.

"(b) the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and any Bill of Rights for Northern Ireland supplementing it, which neither the Assembly nor public bodies can infringe, together with a Human Rights Commission; (c) arrangements to provide that key decisions and legislation are proofed to ensure that they do not infringe the ECHR and any Bill of Rights for Northern Ireland;"

"11. The Assembly may appoint a special Committee to examine and report on whether a measure or proposal for legislation is in conformity with equality requirements, including the ECHR/Bill of Rights. The Committee shall have the power to call people and papers to assist in its consideration of the matter. The Assembly shall then consider the report of the Committee and can determine the matter in accordance with the cross-community consent procedure".

"United Kingdom Legislation 2.

The British Government will complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with direct access to the courts, and remedies for breach of the Convention, including power for the courts to overrule Assembly legislation on grounds of inconsistency".

The May government has said they would pull out of the ECHR, which ends the Good Friday Agreement. It didn't matter whether there was an election or not the moment the UK government pulls the plug on the ECHR, the Good Friday Agreement is null and void.

Contentious issue number 2. Voting on a united Ireland.

1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1.

(2) But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland.

There should be a vote on whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK or unite the island of Ireland. The DUP are a against giving the people of Northern Ireland the right to vote on this. And was one of the main reasons they were against it in 1998.

Contentious issue number 3. Cross border institutes will rely on an open border on the island of Ireland to function.

Areas for North-South co-operation and implementation may include the following:
1. Agriculture - animal and plant health.
2. Education - teacher qualifications and exchanges.
3. Transport - strategic transport planning.
4. Environment - environmental protection, pollution, water quality, and waste management.
5. Waterways - inland waterways.
6. Social Security/Social Welfare - entitlements of cross-border workers and fraud control.
7. Tourism - promotion, marketing, research, and product development.
8. Relevant EU Programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and their successors.
9. Inland Fisheries.
10. Aquaculture and marine matters
11. Health: accident and emergency services and other related crossborder issues.
12. Urban and rural development. Others to be considered by the shadow North/ South Council.

Contentious issue number 4. Free movement of people on the island of Ireland.

RIGHTS, SAFEGUARDS AND EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY

Human Rights


"the right to freely choose one’s place of residence";

Anyone on the island of Ireland, that includes any EU citizen that comes to Ireland, or lives there now, can go and live anywhere on Ireland, without any checks on their passports between the two parts. Not allowing free movement i.e border checks goes against the Agreement. After Brexit, any EU citizen will still be able to travel to the Republic and board a train or drive a car into Northern Ireland. That is unless there is border checks, which goes against the Good Friday Agreement.

This was always going to be a contentious issue after Brexit as the Irish government has to allow free movement of EU citizens otherwise they will be in breach of EU convention.

The DUP have never hidden there issue with the GFA. Ian Paisley joined in the process even though he campaigned against it. The changing demographics in the north of Ireland will mean that there will be more Catholics - while not absolute - would tend to vote for a united Ireland. That is the DUP main worry and why it will be on the agenda in talks with May. They do not want to take the chance that a majority in the north may vote for a united Ireland.

The economic issues over pensions make them at loggerheads with the Tories. A main reason the DUP dislodged the UUP - the main business party - amongst the working class is they are against the cuts/austerity. They will want hard cash.

Currently the UK raise roughly £600 million through Corporation tax in Northern Ireland, From 2018 the rate is due to drop to 12.5% and they will collect and keep it themselves. But whatever is raised will be taken out of Northern Ireland's block grant. The UK treasury will be down by about £200 million.

The DUP are formidable negotiators and they know they have May on the ropes and they will squeeze her till the pips squeak.