evilwebby
Player Valuation: £50m
The Tories do seem bleeding support as they continue their shambolic campaign.
Theresa May has completely misjudged this; Firstly, she wanted to turn it into an election about Brexit, but as the campaign has drawn on then it has become about what all elections are about - domestic issues, NHS, education, tax etc. Secondly, she was completely wrong to call the election so far (7 weeks!), it should have been a short campaign for a snap election to inject more urgency.
That said, the YouGov numbers are very much still an outlier. As Andrew Wells of ukpollingreport often reminds us, it is usually the rogue poll that draws the headlines while it is also most likely to be plain wrong if all the other polls do not agree. The Con lead is shrinking, no doubt, but in reality probably still healthy enough for a convincing Westminster majority. Also, don't forget in 2015 that YouGov published their own alternative Exit Poll on election night which was proven spectacularly wrong.
The real business end of the election starts in the last week, imo. I always thought the surge in the Con lead when the election was called was completely unrealistic and would narrow through the campaign. It could well continue to narrow in the next few days, but I also think that in the last 48hrs as people weigh up the choices before them then we'll see a late move back to the Con.
Ultimately I think that people place too much emphasis on the ups and downs of election campaign. Stuff like Leaders debates, gaffs, etc are largely forgotten about in the days leading up to the election and the vast majority of people overwhelmingly go with the party who they are most naturally aligned with since the last election.
Theresa May has completely misjudged this; Firstly, she wanted to turn it into an election about Brexit, but as the campaign has drawn on then it has become about what all elections are about - domestic issues, NHS, education, tax etc. Secondly, she was completely wrong to call the election so far (7 weeks!), it should have been a short campaign for a snap election to inject more urgency.
That said, the YouGov numbers are very much still an outlier. As Andrew Wells of ukpollingreport often reminds us, it is usually the rogue poll that draws the headlines while it is also most likely to be plain wrong if all the other polls do not agree. The Con lead is shrinking, no doubt, but in reality probably still healthy enough for a convincing Westminster majority. Also, don't forget in 2015 that YouGov published their own alternative Exit Poll on election night which was proven spectacularly wrong.
The real business end of the election starts in the last week, imo. I always thought the surge in the Con lead when the election was called was completely unrealistic and would narrow through the campaign. It could well continue to narrow in the next few days, but I also think that in the last 48hrs as people weigh up the choices before them then we'll see a late move back to the Con.
Ultimately I think that people place too much emphasis on the ups and downs of election campaign. Stuff like Leaders debates, gaffs, etc are largely forgotten about in the days leading up to the election and the vast majority of people overwhelmingly go with the party who they are most naturally aligned with since the last election.
