I know it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we'll be dragged into a scrap where we run the risk of edging into the relegation zone, but for what it's worth, in my opinion we'll avoid relegation fairly comfortably in the end.
Doesn't feel or look like we will at the moment, but I'm hoping I'll be proved right.
By comfortable, I mean when we look at the final table we'll ultimately be about 5-6 points above the drop zone. Remember us beating Arsenal at Goodison last April? We went one point behind in 5th with a game in hand, with only a month left of the season. Was that comfortable for Arsenal? Absolutely not, but they still finished 7 points ahead of us which gives the impression of comfort.
As has been suggested already, the 40 point mark probably won't be needed this season. I think something like 36-38 will be enough this season. Strange things happen in relegation battles most years, and results can often be really difficult to predict at times.
I believe the worst case scenario is that somewhere along the line we'll just about get enough points with a few games to spare. I may be wrong, but that's what I believe.