2024/25 Beto

Marius57 said:
It just frustrates me. Like when people say we never replaced Lukaku because we never got a 20 goal striker. Well, we never had a striker in the PL who was a 20 goal a season striker before him (barring one off seasons) and we had him for what, 4 years? In none of those years did we finish top 4.

I bet if you look at the stats, the vast majority of those 2.9 strikers a season are in top 4 teams each season. We aren’t and haven’t been barring one season. Thats our aspiration, but a 20 goal a season striker isn’t going to join us until we are on the verge of that really. Or we develop one into that.

It’s why I don’t mind strikers who only score 10-12, depending on what the contribution is away from that. For example, Delap who people are clamouring for, has a goal/assist (12/2) in 11 games this season. What’s he done in the other 25 games to show his value and worth? I don’t know as I don’t watch them regularly but the games I’ve seen he has done very little. Obviously the caveat is he plays for Ipswich and is young so likely to improve which is why for me he would be a decent signing.

But this is why having a player like Beto who we know can get goals and take the pressure off is vital.
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We never replaced Lukaku's goals, that's effectively what people mean when they say it. Whether those goals come from one player or four is irrelevant really, as long as they come from somewhere. The number of goals we score has dropped off significantly since Lukaku left, we scored over 60 in two of the seasons he was here (and 59 in another) but have only scored over 50 once in 8 years since he left, and in the last few years have struggled to make 40. On that basis, i'd say it's perfectly fine to say we haven't ever replaced Lukaku.
 

Eggs said:
….its a moot point whether the bar has been raised, a few weeks ago Beto’s inability to look after the ball cost us a goal at Chelsea. He’s very hit and miss, there’s no doubt DCL is more polished and the superior footballer, but there is certainly an argument that Beto is more effective.

In a few weeks I’ve gone from thinking Moyes is very keen on a DCL renewal to thinking he’s happy keeping Beto.

Hopefully not inviting trouble, but a big plus with Beto is his robustness and availability. His goal scoring record also suggests he’s more effective than our other options. I dare say I’ll change my mind again next week but it’s guesswork as to what Moyes wants/thinks.
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I think the interesting point was where he dropped Beto for Broja for 2 games to check him out. Didn't take him long to decide Broja hasn't got what he wants and Beto jumped back ahead of him in the queue.

Again, bringing DCL on in the 89th minute against Fulham I think was a ringing endorsement from Moyes for Beto.

Availability is key. The other 3 simply haven't been available enough and when they have they haven't staked their claim.

I think Beto has jumped ahead of all of them in the queue. Who would have said that in January!
 
maccavennie said:
I think the interesting point was where he dropped Beto for Broja for 2 games to check him out. Didn't take him long to decide Broja hasn't got what he wants and Beto jumped back ahead of him in the queue.

Again, bringing DCL on in the 89th minute against Fulham I think was a ringing endorsement from Moyes for Beto.

Availability is key. The other 3 simply haven't been available enough and when they have they haven't staked their claim.

I think Beto has jumped ahead of all of them in the queue. Who would have said that in January!
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….certainly seems the assumption now.

Be interesting if the club’s contract offer for DCL is still on the table and whether he decides to accept. I can’t see us keeping both but I suspect DCL has already opted to leave.
 
Lanolin said:
We never replaced Lukaku's goals, that's effectively what people mean when they say it. Whether those goals come from one player or four is irrelevant really, as long as they come from somewhere. The number of goals we score has dropped off significantly since Lukaku left, we scored over 60 in two of the seasons he was here (and 59 in another) but have only scored over 50 once in 8 years since he left, and in the last few years have struggled to make 40. On that basis, i'd say it's perfectly fine to say we haven't ever replaced Lukaku.
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Oh we haven’t, certainly last few years. But for a lot of the PL seasons prior to Lukaku we scored less than 50 as well. Even 04/05 when we finished 4th we only scored 45.

There are many posters who specify it’s about not signing the striker though, rather than the goals but I do appreciate for others it is about replacing the goals. Which could come from our wingers and number 10 for example. Lukaku is a one off for us in terms of striker in the PL era.

Again though, Lukaku has skewed the numbers a bit. Prior to Lukaku we had a total of 2 in 21 seasons scoring over 60. The first 14 years we scored over 50 twice.

The only real consistency of higher goals we had was for the 7 years prior to Lukaku under Moyes (from 06/07) and the 4 years of Lukaku (even though one was under 50) where we scored 50+ every season. And that had Cahill/fellaini as top scorers a couple of times (when the goals were shared around more). Which then feeds my point that until we are on the verge of being top 4/5 every season, we are highly unlikely to sign that 20+ goal striker.

We have essentially reverted back to what we were prior to that 11 year spell starting in 06/07 and what has been our ‘usual’ performance level of goals somewhere in the 40s (with the odd better season) for about 2/3s of our PL existence. Which is again why it’s important having a player like Beto who we know can grab the goals alongside a striker who may score 10/12 as first choice to develop, but also having better number 10 and wingers.
 
Marius57 said:
Oh we haven’t, certainly last few years. But for a lot of the PL seasons prior to Lukaku we scored less than 50 as well. Even 04/05 when we finished 4th we only scored 45.

There are many posters who specify it’s about not signing the striker though, rather than the goals but I do appreciate for others it is about replacing the goals. Which could come from our wingers and number 10 for example. Lukaku is a one off for us in terms of striker in the PL era.

Again though, Lukaku has skewed the numbers a bit. Prior to Lukaku we had a total of 2 in 21 seasons scoring over 60. The first 14 years we scored over 50 twice.

The only real consistency of higher goals we had was for the 7 years prior to Lukaku under Moyes (from 06/07) and the 4 years of Lukaku (even though one was under 50) where we scored 50+ every season. And that had Cahill/fellaini as top scorers a couple of times (when the goals were shared around more). Which then feeds my point that until we are on the verge of being top 4/5 every season, we are highly unlikely to sign that 20+ goal striker.

We have essentially reverted back to what we were prior to that 11 year spell starting in 06/07 and what has been our ‘usual’ performance level of goals somewhere in the 40s (with the odd better season) for about 2/3s of our PL existence. Which is again why it’s important having a player like Beto who we know can grab the goals alongside a striker who may score 10/12 as first choice to develop, but also having better number 10 and wingers.
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We had Yak, Saha, Cahill, Fellaini, getting at average 10 a season. Osman, Arteta, Baines, Pienaar 4-5.

Now it's probably 1 player at a push getting 10. Barely anyone else getting higher than 3 a season as we gradually sold players who scored goals for us over the years.
 

Marius57 said:
Oh we haven’t, certainly last few years. But for a lot of the PL seasons prior to Lukaku we scored less than 50 as well. Even 04/05 when we finished 4th we only scored 45.

There are many posters who specify it’s about not signing the striker though, rather than the goals but I do appreciate for others it is about replacing the goals. Which could come from our wingers and number 10 for example. Lukaku is a one off for us in terms of striker in the PL era.

Again though, Lukaku has skewed the numbers a bit. Prior to Lukaku we had a total of 2 in 21 seasons scoring over 60. The first 14 years we scored over 50 twice.

The only real consistency of higher goals we had was for the 7 years prior to Lukaku under Moyes (from 06/07) and the 4 years of Lukaku (even though one was under 50) where we scored 50+ every season. And that had Cahill/fellaini as top scorers a couple of times (when the goals were shared around more). Which then feeds my point that until we are on the verge of being top 4/5 every season, we are highly unlikely to sign that 20+ goal striker.

We have essentially reverted back to what we were prior to that 11 year spell starting in 06/07 and what has been our ‘usual’ performance level of goals somewhere in the 40s (with the odd better season) for about 2/3s of our PL existence. Which is again why it’s important having a player like Beto who we know can grab the goals alongside a striker who may score 10/12 as first choice to develop, but also having better number 10 and wingers.
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The lowest number of goals we scored in the 10 full seasons prior to Lukaku's departure was 48. We've only reached that total once in 8 seasons since then. It's surely a fair summary then to say that we haven't adequately replaced Lukaku's goals (and general threat) since he was sold? As I said, that doesn't have to be one player scoring an extra 10 goals, it's just a convenient and simple way of framing the point. I saw someone earlier saying we never replaced Gana until we got him back and it's just the same thing really, you don't necessarily need an exact clone of Gana but someone needs to offer protection to the back 4 in some way and we didn't adequately address that in the years he was away. I think sometimes people get hung up unnecessarily on the literal idea of a '20 goal a season striker'. Generally people aren't referring to someone who never ever scores less than 20 goals, it's just a turn of phrase for someone who is a reliable goalscorer - something that was widely acknowledged as being a major factor in us not breaking the glass ceiling in Moyes' first spell.
 
Eggs said:
….certainly seems the assumption now.

Be interesting if the club’s contract offer for DCL is still on the table and whether he decides to accept. I can’t see us keeping both but I suspect DCL has already opted to leave.
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According to Moyse there isn't a contract offer. Or so he said last week.
 

Eggs said:
….its a moot point whether the bar has been raised, a few weeks ago Beto’s inability to look after the ball cost us a goal at Chelsea. He’s very hit and miss, there’s no doubt DCL is more polished and the superior footballer, but there is certainly an argument that Beto is more effective.

In a few weeks I’ve gone from thinking Moyes is very keen on a DCL renewal to thinking he’s happy keeping Beto.

Hopefully not inviting trouble, but a big plus with Beto is his robustness and availability. His goal scoring record also suggests he’s more effective than our other options. I dare say I’ll change my mind again next week but it’s guesswork as to what Moyes wants/thinks.
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I worry that we're going to end up keeping both.
 
Eggs said:
….at least we’ll soon know if any of those not contracted to be here next season have agreed deals (including loanees).
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Agreed. It's a bit of a surprise that that hasn't started happening yet, given we've secured our top flight status. Maybe fewer contracts will be renewed than many of us are thinking?
 

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