Relegation 2022/23

[blue to the bone]

Do people actually pay heed to what a super computer predicts!
My goodness

 

[Simon Buttle]

I agree, this league can be brutal like that. You'd also think at some point Brighton will make a mis-step with a managerial hire or player recruitment and find themselves dropping.

But back to the clubs you mentioned, Leicester in the last 7 years have won a league, an FA Cup, had some top 7 finishes and played in Europe. Wolves had a couple of top 7 finishes and played in Europe. Palace have finished more or less where they were under Hodgson, but have done so whilst overhauling the profile of their squad to younger players that will most likely net them more in transfer fees. And you'd have to say none of them are currently amongst the 3 teams that you'd tip to go down this season.

So what they've done is probably still more sustainable than hiring an old dar as manager who buys a load of old grocks to play percentage football that is guaranteed to have you in a relegation battle more often than not.

If they make a mistake with anything it's likely to be on the managerial front but they plan these things so thoroughly and with so much detail that someone would have had to have made a serious error somewhere or more likely it would be a clash of personalities. I don't see them making a mistake on recruitment tbh, they already have replacements for players like MacAllister and Caicedo and Mitoma and others waiting to come through from the under23's or on the fringes of the first team. They plan 2 steps ahead all the time.

 

[davek]

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Their methodology is based on their assessment of present GF and GC + strength of teams yet to be played.

They obviously overplay the significance of teams facing other relegation threatened clubs and see them as more winnable and underplay the possibility that playing teams outside the relegation zone with nothing to really play for is a better thing.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

Two potential scenarios that work well for us here

1. Palace get the appointment right and then go on to take points from everyone else around us, thus meaning we stay up at those sides' expense

or

2. Palace get the appointment wrong and continue to drop down the table, meaning we stay up at their expense

I've no beef with Palace so that first scenario suits me just fine in all honesty

Yeah it’s impossible to know what to really hope for from Palace now- if they keep losing obviously it’s another team we can hope to leapfrog but maybe now we’re at the stage we need the more fringe contenders like them or Wolves who have plenty of games against relegation rivals just to win them all. We only need to finish ahead of three after all.

 

[MisterJ]

Its an interesting time to pull the trigger; whoever they get in is going to have so little time to turn things around.

You usually see some kind of new manager bounce, but is it too late for that to be enough?

 

[Billy Dean]

If they make a mistake with anything it's likely to be on the managerial front but they plan these things so thoroughly and with so much detail that someone would have had to have made a serious error somewhere or more likely it would be a clash of personalities. I don't see them making a mistake on recruitment tbh, they already have replacements for players like MacAllister and Caicedo and Mitoma and others waiting to come through from the under23's or on the fringes of the first team. They plan 2 steps ahead all the time.

Yes true but striking gold on every player and manager hire every time is very difficult even for a very well-run club. You could maybe picture a time when Caicedo, Mac Allister and Mitoma are no longer there, De Zerbi gets snapped up, and if the players or manager coming in to replace them don't quite reach that level for whatever reason then maybe they might sink back into lower reaches of the league.

 

[Lanolin]

But he was young and progressive and had achieved an amazing cultural refresh of Palace 5 minutes ago, according to some on GOT at least

It just shows yet again that if you’re not at a top 6 club you are one bad run, transfer window, or injury, away from ending up in a relegation battle and being fired. No matter what profile your manager is or what philosophy the club has. Rodgers Lage Vieira were all the rage last season. It’s looking like none will be here by the end of this season, but Palace Wolves and Leicester all did things the right way and had philosophies…apparently.

I mean Leicester clearly do things the right way don't they? They're historically a small provincial club and in the last 10 years have won the Premier League and the FA Cup, had a couple of top 6 finishes, and been to a European semi-final. Suggesting that they haven't gone about things better than us is just weird. Obviously all but the biggest clubs can slip into trouble in a bad season though, the same will likely happen to Brighton and Brentford at some point. You can't pull rabbits out of the hat forever, but that doesn't takeaway from the fact they have a good set up and much we could learn from.

 

[Saint Domingo]

I agree, this league can be brutal like that. You'd also think at some point Brighton will make a mis-step with a managerial hire or player recruitment and find themselves dropping.

But back to the clubs you mentioned, Leicester in the last 7 years have won a league, an FA Cup, had some top 7 finishes and played in Europe. Wolves had a couple of top 7 finishes and played in Europe. Palace have finished more or less where they were under Hodgson, but have done so whilst overhauling the profile of their squad to younger players that will most likely net them more in transfer fees. And you'd have to say none of them are currently amongst the 3 teams that you'd tip to go down this season.

So what they've done is probably still more sustainable than hiring an old dar as manager who buys a load of old grocks to play percentage football that is guaranteed to have you in a relegation battle more often than not.

We did all this though (except the FA Cup win for Leicester) even under Moshiri. We were 7th under Koeman with one of the best young strikers in Europe playing for us. We hired a highly rated young progressive coach in Silva and finished 8th with young players like Richarlison Digne Gomes Bernard etc. We had a fancy DOF. We bought in prospects like Vladic Lookman Sandro Moise Kean.

On paper we sent full hipster numerous times and it didn’t work. We’re just a bit further along that horrible cycle than Leicester are who will now have to sell most of their top players and have to make sure they get a managerial change correct to avoid another relegation battle (of they survive this one).

Either way isn’t it a sad reflection that no non sky six PL team (aside from Moyes’s Everton) has been able to climb the table, make European qualification, and stay there for an extended period of time? If Leicester have a bad season they’re in a relegation battle after years of almost perfect operation. If United have a bad season they’re fifth or maybe even fourth. That’s the difference.

 

[degsy]

They're 3 points off staying up. Nothing has been decided yet.

This.

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your  pen keyboard
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win

(For the times they are a changin)

 

[MisterJ]

If they make a mistake with anything it's likely to be on the managerial front but they plan these things so thoroughly and with so much detail that someone would have had to have made a serious error somewhere or more likely it would be a clash of personalities. I don't see them making a mistake on recruitment tbh, they already have replacements for players like MacAllister and Caicedo and Mitoma and others waiting to come through from the under23's or on the fringes of the first team. They plan 2 steps ahead all the time.

Its almost like they know how to run a club properly

 

[Simon Buttle]

Yes true but striking gold on every player and manager hire every time is very difficult even for a very well-run club. You could maybe picture a time when Caicedo, Mac Allister and Mitoma are no longer there, De Zerbi gets snapped up, and if the players or manager coming in to replace them don't quite reach that level for whatever reason then maybe they might sink back into lower reaches of the league.

That's why they bring in the replacements a couple of years before they need them though, a bit of coaching, a loan out to their twin club in Belgium or somewhere else and then a judgement is made on whether the player is good enough or not. There are plenty of players who have been through the system and didn't make the cut, Gyokeres for example, he has had to go down the leagues and show what he can do. They have been running this model since pre Houghton and it works for them, how long they can keep it up is another matter but Tony Bloom the owner is a canny operator and he will just adapt it to suit imo.

 

[Tony101]

Looking in from the outside, IMO not finding a replacement with a similar profile to Conor Gallagher has been a big miss for Palace

That’s kind of like us with Silva. We lost Gana didn’t replace him and it all fell apart. It’s mad how one player can make such a difference but if it’s the perfect fit. to make the managers system work that’s what happens.

 

[Billy Dean]

We did all this though (except the FA Cup win for Leicester) even under Moshiri. We were 7th under Koeman with one of the best young strikers in Europe playing for us. We hired a highly rated young progressive coach in Silva and finished 8th with young players like Richarlison Digne Gomes Bernard etc. We had a fancy DOF. We bought in prospects like Vladic Lookman Sandro Moise Kean.

On paper we sent full hipster numerous times and it didn’t work. We’re just a bit further along that horrible cycle than Leicester are who will now have to sell most of their top players and have to make sure they get a managerial change correct to avoid another relegation battle (of they survive this one).

Either way isn’t it a sad reflection that no non sky six PL team (aside from Moyes’s Everton) has been able to climb the table, make European qualification, and stay there for an extended period of time? If Leicester have a bad season they’re in a relegation battle after years of almost perfect operation. If United have a bad season they’re fifth or maybe even fourth. That’s the difference.

I don't think we really went full hipster to be honest. I'd say we probably tried to, but did it in a really half-assed way without putting any infrastructure in place to do it well. And then lurched from that style to other styles based on the whims of our owner and board. But yeah I agree that it's sad that it's a closed shop nowadays and kind of has reduced my interest in football a little bit.

 

[Saint Domingo]

I mean Leicester clearly do things the right way don't they? They're historically a small provincial club and in the last 10 years have won the Premier League and the FA Cup, had a couple of top 6 finishes, and been to a European semi-final. Suggesting that they haven't gone about things better than us is just weird. Obviously all but the biggest clubs can slip into trouble in a bad season though, the same will likely happen to Brighton and Brentford at some point. You can't pull rabbits out of the hat forever, but that doesn't takeaway from the fact they have a good set up and much we could learn from.

Didn’t say there wasn’t anything we could learn from them. The title win however was built on a core of players that fit better into the old da manager with a load of grocks (as one poster put it) than some young progressive philosophy. They literally brought in an old bloke from Italy based it on a solid defence of Morgan Hith Fuchs Simpson, had Albrighton DrinkWater Okazakai working hard, and then had a couple of pieces of star recruitment in Kante and Mahrez. Their only forward planning before then had been a decent buy of Vardy. It wasn’t a jigsaw piece that came together over time. Just shows there’s more than one way to build a winning team.

My point is more that despite whatever successes they have had (which we’d all arguably want) it’s not been the route into sustained attendance at the top table of European football. Since Abramovich took over Chelsea and the era of huge spending and sponsorship started, only two teams have finished in the top 4 outside the big six, and only one team Leicester than had a single season of CL football. The fact that they’re now also in a relegation battle is a bit sad isn’t it? You’d at that decent teams fall all the time, but the big six don’t. They’re too big now and there’s no easy pathway for anyone to join them on a continuous basis. Maybe state ownership at Newcastle will be the answer but that’s also a bit sad in and of itself.

To come at it another way. If everything Everton does is rubbish and always so wrong, and everything everyone else does is always so right, why does every other team eventually find itself in exactly the same position as us fighting relegation?

 

[Lanolin]

That's why they bring in the replacements a couple of years before they need them though, a bit of coaching, a loan out to their twin club in Belgium or somewhere else and then a judgement is made on whether the player is good enough or not. There are plenty of players who have been through the system and didn't make the cut, Gyokeres for example, he has had to go down the leagues and show what he can do. They have been running this model since pre Houghton and it works for them, how long they can keep it up is another matter but Tony Bloom the owner is a canny operator and he will just adapt it to suit imo.

I think it's inevitable that at some point they'll find the players they're bringing in just don't quite hit the same level as the ones that are leaving, and the same with staff, whether that's the people front and centre or the scouts and coaches in the background. Plenty of other clubs both in this country and in Europe have done similar to what they're doing for a period but invariably they reach a point where it levels out and then eventually reverts to type. I mean in a way I hope it doesn't happen and they gatecrash the top 6 but I just can't see it lasting indefinitely personally.