Relegation 2022/23

[Neiler]

Forest's run in is atrocious. They have a winnable game tomorrow night and they dont have too many more than that. If they just draw or get beat by Newcastle I'd put a lot of money on Forest being relegated.

Newcastle's a tough game this weather mate. That said i forgot how animated the atmosphere was at the CIty ground, their fans and well up for it - noticed it in our game - tough place to go.

What's our acceptable points over the next three - I'm thinking three.

 

[Neiler]

Yes, but I dont think that's a great time to start bringing managers in. That's desperation and players will know it.

Seems like a really limited market to, Leeds and Southampton literally didn't know where do go or what to do.

We were blessed we a couple of weeks jumped early.

 

[brieverton]

Three draws or one win in next three would do me. It would get us over this hump of games relatively intact. I don't think we'll get any more than that either, and perhaps less. A lot will be riding on the Spurs game particularly if we finish with nothing this Saturday.

 

[The Binman]

They have a decision to make with the international break, because Palace will be flattened by Arsenal next up.

It depends on results tomorrow and this weekend. For example, if - as I suspect - no club below them other than Wolves gets points then they'll be sitting in 13th place. That would be a strange position to sack a manager from if you're Palace. I think their board will look at the type of clubs they've been playing for the past 2 months (top half teams) and stay their hand. Only if Palace then start losing after the break against Leicester or Leeds will they act to remove Vieira.

yeah thats fair enough, also depends who is actually available, who will go to palace, and do a better job. I think that pond is quite small tbh...

they may well improve after Arsenal, but hopefully they do get smashed and it flattens any confidence they may have..

 

[Lanolin]

They have a decision to make with the international break, because Palace will be flattened by Arsenal next up.

It depends on results tomorrow and this weekend. For example, if - as I suspect - no club below them other than Wolves gets points then they'll be sitting in 13th place. That would be a strange position to sack a manager from if you're Palace. I think their board will look at the type of clubs they've been playing for the past 2 months (top half teams) and stay their hand. Only if Palace then start losing after the break against Leicester or Leeds will they act to remove Vieira.

I get what you mean but I think it's more to do with what the underlying trends are. I don't know what Palace's numbers look like in terms of whether their points are reflecting performances etc but I think it's worth noting that their poor form has been ongoing for a while now. They started the season poorly, then had a short good run where they won a number of games and then they've reverted to poor results. It's whether they think this is the blip or actually the good run was. They've already lost to us, Forest, Southampton etc so I wouldn't be that confident if I was a Palace fan that things will just magically turn around when they play someone below them. That being said, I'd rather have the extra points they've got on the board so they wouldn't be my favourites to go down.

 

[davek]

I'd argue Wolves and Soton at home are the two best chances for them.

I wasn't impressed with Newcastle against Wolves, and Forest's home form has been ok. They need that win tomorrow. I think it's vital they dont get for us and others down there. If they get onto 29 points this soon then they'll see light at the end of the tunnel. If they dont it'll seem like a hell of a long way off given their fixture list.

 

[davek]

yeah thats fair enough, also depends who is actually available, who will go to palace, and do a better job. I think that pond is quite small tbh...

they may well improve after Arsenal, but hopefully they do get smashed and it flattens any confidence they may have..

As I replied to @Neiler, I dont think it's a great idea to change managers at this point. The longer you leave it the less sense it makes. A manager needs time to get their methods across, because after a possible bounce early on that new lease of life tends to evaporate.

Dyche came in and had a bit of a bounce then it went badly for two games. The reason we came out of the last two games with 4 points is because his approach is now embedded and we look a lot more capable of taking the initiative.

 

[Simon Buttle]

I wasn't impressed with Newcastle against Wolves, and Forest's home form has been ok. They need that win tomorrow. I think it's vital they dont get for us and others down there. If they get onto 29 points this soon then they'll see light at the end of the tunnel. If they dont it'll seem like a hell of a long way off given their fixture list.

Forest have a poor GA though which may prove to be their downfall in the end imo.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Three draws or one win in next three would do me. It would get us over this hump of games relatively intact. I don't think we'll get any more than that either, and perhaps less. A lot will be riding on the Spurs game particularly if we finish with nothing this Saturday.

A point per game average is not bad, especially given who we are playing.

 

[davek]

I get what you mean but I think it's more to do with what the underlying trends are. I don't know what Palace's numbers look like in terms of whether their points are reflecting performances etc but I think it's worth noting that their poor form has been ongoing for a while now. They started the season poorly, then had a short good run where they won a number of games and then they've reverted to poor results. It's whether they think this is the blip or actually the good run was. They've already lost to us, Forest, Southampton etc so I wouldn't be that confident if I was a Palace fan that things will just magically turn around when they play someone below them. That being said, I'd rather have the extra points they've got on the board so they wouldn't be my favourites to go down.

If it were me, I'd leave Vierira in place and see how the Leicester and Leeds games go that they have after the break. I think they can afford to take that time.

 

[davek]

Forest have a poor GA though which may prove to be their downfall in the end imo.

I look at their numbers and I wonder how they're 1 point above us and 14th in the table: scored 1 more than us (21) but conceded 47 to our 38.

Incredible.

They cant get away with those numbers much longer. As I said, if they fail to beat Newcastle I'd consider them hot favourites to be relegated given their fixtures.

 

[Simon Buttle]

I look at their numbers and I wonder how they're 1 point above us and 14th in the table: scored 1 more than us (21) and conceded 47.

Incredible.

They cant get away with those numbers much longer. As I said, if they fail to beat Newcastle I'd consider them hot favourites to be relegated given their fixtures.

They will struggle now if Johnson is out as they need him, he offers creativity and goals for them. They can't defend though, as you say it's a big game for them against Newcastle, a must win.

 

[davek]

They will struggle now if Johnson is out as they need him, he offers creativity and goals for them. They can't defend though, as you say it's a big game for them against Newcastle, a must win.

It's looking like he might miss just tomorrow's game.

 

[Paul Rideout]

A flick on from a goal kick?

I’d like to think any of Calvert Lewin Simms or Onana could manage that.

This place would probably be arguing that it’s not a proper goal if we ever did that whereas when Brentford and Toney does it it’s good.

I was more envious of Wissa running behind the defence anticipating the flick. We could definitely do with more players doing that.

How many times have we done that this season? the whole movement to the ball, dragging the CB with him to create the space for the overlapping run to pick up the flick on.

I think a competent forward would result in on e of those runs from Doucoure or Onana to go through one on one and probably miss. lol

 

[davek]

Three draws or one win in next three would do me. It would get us over this hump of games relatively intact. I don't think we'll get any more than that either, and perhaps less. A lot will be riding on the Spurs game particularly if we finish with nothing this Saturday.

Given that all 9 of the relegation threatened clubs have not managed more than a point per game all season, it's highly conceivable that if we get just another 10 points to take us to 35 points we'd be ok.

There's little prospect that more than three other teams in the 9 will suddenly start picking up a point per game, much less that they'll exceed a point per game in the final fixtures. In that case we could get clear with 2 ins and four draws. If Spurs is one of those - which I believe is good bet - we'd have 9 games to find another win and simply take draws if need be.

I know other clubs can make these calculations, but we seem to be producing consistently competitive performances and our manager is a proven asset in these circumstances.