Current Affairs UK General Election July

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Farage: I'm not sure Reform can cut into the Tory base anymore than they had before his announcement. That looked to the bone already.

And if you're 'Labour' you'd just have wanted the status quo to continue in this election. Anything that happens now is unwelcome. Despite all the briefings to hacks about being 'secretly delighted' about the right vote split...they ARE on the right themselves, and Farage laying into both major parties in the next 4 weeks could shatter the hopes of a few 'Labour' aspirants in constituencies receptive to Reform on the immigration issue.

Probably though it changes nothing. Farage has had his day. He cant swing an election that's been pretty much in the bag for Starmer's crew for 18 months, and I doubt he'll persuade many more official Tories to vote for Reform.

….i suspect Farage will take a lot of the undecided and Conservative waiverers, he’s still a formidable politician without much opposition in the way of oratory and personality.

I can see Reform now taking Red Wall votes off Labour but I agree not enough to overturn the likely results. They could take enough Tory votes to allow Labour/Lib Dem into seats by the back door.
 
….i suspect Farage will take a lot of the undecided and Conservative waiverers, he’s still a formidable politician without much opposition in the way of oratory and personality.

I can see Reform now taking Red Wall votes off Labour but I agree not enough to overturn the likely results. They could take enough Tory votes to allow Labour/Lib Dem into seats by the back door.

His impact is going to be hard to tell. It wasn't even close before he announced his 'bombshell' move.
 
His impact is going to be hard to tell. It wasn't even close before he announced his 'bombshell' move.

….i think it’s devastating for Conservatives and will cause ripples of concern for Labour.

Watching Sky News declare their latest poll, presenter Sam Coates received a call from Grant Shapps live on air, he took it but when he told Shapps he was live on TV he hung up. Moments earlier, Sky reported Shapps was in danger of losing his seat :coffee:
 
….i think it’s devastating for Conservatives and will cause ripples of concern for Labour.

Watching Sky News declare their latest poll, presenter Sam Coates received a call from Grant Shapps live on air, he took it but when he told Shapps he was live on TV he hung up. Moments earlier, Sky reported Shapps was in danger of losing his seat :coffee:

Losing his arse more like.
 
That's fair enough. I wouldn't predict the opposite will happen, I'm just living in hope of some big scalps to really set their rebuild project back a bit after the election. If it's 4am on the Friday and I'm left disappointed that ghouls like Rees-Mogg have held on, ultimately it will still have been a great result for the country.
There will 100% be some big scalps. Hunt etc will go.
 
….i suspect Farage will take a lot of the undecided and Conservative waiverers, he’s still a formidable politician without much opposition in the way of oratory and personality.

I can see Reform now taking Red Wall votes off Labour but I agree not enough to overturn the likely results. They could take enough Tory votes to allow Labour/Lib Dem into seats by the back door.

Eggs he is a terrible orator, and his personality is best illustrated by how he used to con people into paying hundreds of pounds for garbage financial advice.
 
….saying he’s a good orator doesn’t mean his message is good, it means he can convince people with his words.

It does - but, if he is so convincing, why does he need to be boosted so much?

There is no other politician in the UK who gets what he gets - prime time TV when his party has never gotten an MP elected, which has a very small number of councillors and who at their absolute best got 30% of the vote in an election that everyone knew was meaningless. Unless there is a radical change in polling, they'll get at most one or two MPs this time around as well.
 
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