23 points from these 12 games would do it. Missing out on 69 points would be horrendously unlucky and is probably extremely unlikely.
2 points per game on average. So if we were to lose on Monday, we wouldn't be out of it, but we'd simply have to win the next 3, which I think we can, as we've proven we can "find a way" when we need to, against weaker teams recently. I don't think there's any point looking any further forward than that though, as the assumptions start piling up in terms of our injuries, other teams injuries/results etc. A few key injuries and we will probably collapse, not that there's any shame in that at this stage.
Basically, a win on Monday would put us nicely ahead of schedule. A point would also be a cracking result. A loss wouldn't be the end of the world, but our % chances drop from low to... pretty bad.