Honestly, I can't think of a more depressing time in football for the overwhelming majority of clubs. There's very little to look forward to for the vast majority of us..........
Generally where you finish in the league is more or less correlated to the money you spend.
Now you could qualify this as there are obvious discrepancies over a season or period, perhaps its better to say the ceiling for where you can finish in the league is correlated to wealth, as you can be big spenders and still fail miserably. Again Leicester broke all the rules, but its best seen as a general rule of thumb than an exact law that always must be correct, sport will always provide the exception to the general rule.
I'm slightly more optimistic than you but essentially stick to the ceiling for most clubs being set by expenditure rule. The problems have been masked over by the complete dominance of the premier league in Europe, but are still there.
I'm looking at next season's top four contenders (not City or Liverpool who are way out in front) and only Spurs look to be at least half well set in their prospects
United - no CL and as has been well documented - total anarchy reigns, going from one crisis to the next and no plan.
Who on this earth though Olé at the wheel a better alternative than the far more difficult chase of Pochettino or even Conté? Rio as a prospective DoF is absolutely farcical, unbelievable, how ludicrously devoid of any semblance of common sense.
Verdict-
we could and possibly should finish ahead of them
Arsenal - IF (and its still an IF) they don't win the Europa then no CL, possible real problems with fixing huge deficiencies at the back and ludicrously selling Ramsey - top players want CL. - a difficult project only partially begun - tbh Chelsea winning the Europa is far better for us, Arsenal becoming a fifth CL side is a gamechanger
Verdict: we can challenge them if they don't get CL
Chelsea - Yes they have CL but a possible transfer ban and Hazard looks set to leave, An absolutely massive hole to fill - they have a highly unpopular manager and may have to rely on loan players returning
Verdict - we could challenge them
Spurs - CL but Erikssen could leave and will be difficult to replace. The new stadium will put some limits on finance and their strict wage structure could or will deter top bracket stars.
Poch has again made noises about having a house built just as the furniture look like leaving - possibly a reference to certain stars and himself looking elsewhere. If they actually win the CL then that is massive and rewrites all this, even their remarkable feat of being finalists helps them.
Verdict - we should get a lot nearer them but reaching the CL final will inevitably keep them ahead for a while yet.
Europa League Final? - Chelsea win is best
If as is probable, the Europa final is Chelsea vs Arsenal then a Chelsea win with them already in the CL and no Hazard plus possible transfer embargo suits us far better
Next Season
There could well be three distinct groupings next year
The top two several levels above the rest of the league
The next six - a group of five or six teams comprising the other four of 'the top six' plus ourselves and perhaps Leicester
Followed by the rest with perhaps Watford and Wolves (if they aren't too shot to pieces by their possible Europa campaign) leading, but a significant distance behind the second grouping.
So while City, Liverpool and Spurs are clearly too far ahead atm, although Spurs problems are still plentiful and could still derail them, Chelsea, potentially Arsenal and especially United could go backwards.
We need a reliable striker to really progress, which is a massive ask as everyone wants this. DCL is a massively improved player but still hasn't added the goals or shown enough to think he may do soon. So it's possible we could challenge but it could well be determined by our Sumner business. Our loanees Zouma and Gomes may or may not stay but last seasons signings have improved us.