Current Affairs The Would Be Emperor Has No Clothes (aka POTUS 47)
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The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the president,by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University.
Everybody I know should read this accurate and enlightening piece...
“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.
Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."
Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.
The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.
One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.
There isn't another Canada.
So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.
Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.
For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.
Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.
From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”
— David Honig
Everybody I know should read this accurate and enlightening piece...
“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.
Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."
Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.
The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.
One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.
There isn't another Canada.
So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.
Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.
For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.
Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.
From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”
— David Honig
I put this in the China thread but thought it could go in here as well. China has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US.
"Trump’s additional 10% tariff across all Chinese imports into the US came into effect at 12:01 am ET on Tuesday (05:01 GMT). Within minutes, China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% for US coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos. The new tariffs on US exports will start on 10 February, the ministry said.
Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry and its Customs Administration said the country is imposing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items to “safeguard national security interests”."
www.theguardian.com
"Trump’s additional 10% tariff across all Chinese imports into the US came into effect at 12:01 am ET on Tuesday (05:01 GMT). Within minutes, China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% for US coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos. The new tariffs on US exports will start on 10 February, the ministry said.
Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry and its Customs Administration said the country is imposing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items to “safeguard national security interests”."
Democrats and protesters rally outside treasury department to protest Elon Musk’s access to sensitive information – as it happened
This live coverage has ended. You can find the latest US news here.
Unfortunately this does increase the possibility that Trump actually checks the details of what Canada and Mexico promised and realizes he hasn’t got much and so in 30 days the tariffs all go back on until everyone finds something else to pacify him for a bit.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
Given the size of various red states (with populations around one million), Canada should absolutely demand they be treated in the same way and have the provinces become states themselves each. The whole effort that the right wing has put in these past forty years would, at a stroke of their own making, be rendered useless for a generation or two.
TN Toffee
Player Valuation: £25m
It’s just Trump pandering to the absolute dumbest, lowest information voters in his base. The people who aren’t capable of understanding that there are actually people in this world who not only have no interest in being part of ‘Murica, but would fight not to be.
My mind isn’t capable of conceiving the same party that deftly used every tiny lever and loophole they could find over half a century to eventually ensconce themselves in minority rule throwing it all away by scoring what would have to be the most spectacular own-goal in all of political history.
T Bone
Player Valuation: £1.5m
That Trump coin has crashed to 16$ and is getting lower from 75$ last week.
I joined the subreddit last week for the schadenfreude. Its a fascinating condensed window and sums up maga in a nutshell. People losing thier life's savings and still defending Trump. Wife leaving them and defending Trump.
Very scary. That's what we are up against. How can you defeat that kinda following politically?
I joined the subreddit last week for the schadenfreude. Its a fascinating condensed window and sums up maga in a nutshell. People losing thier life's savings and still defending Trump. Wife leaving them and defending Trump.
Very scary. That's what we are up against. How can you defeat that kinda following politically?
I always thought it was a right to bare arms. Like, wearing a vest.
T Bone
Player Valuation: £1.5m
The irony his site is called Truth. Also the fact he is president and the richest man in the world is an idiot.
We are in the ironic era. The extremely unfortunate side of irony.
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
Excellent. I expect the Europeans to take a similar course of action. Bully the bully. China and the EU are the only two markets that are big enough to. Placating this bully will likely lead to him reneging on any "pause" with Canada and Mexico and coming back for another pound of flesh.I put this in the China thread but thought it could go in here as well. China has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US.
"Trump’s additional 10% tariff across all Chinese imports into the US came into effect at 12:01 am ET on Tuesday (05:01 GMT). Within minutes, China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% for US coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos. The new tariffs on US exports will start on 10 February, the ministry said.
Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry and its Customs Administration said the country is imposing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items to “safeguard national security interests”."
Democrats and protesters rally outside treasury department to protest Elon Musk’s access to sensitive information – as it happened
This live coverage has ended. You can find the latest US news here.
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
And look what happened to Goliath...
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
This is exactly what will happen. The Chinese have played the right cards. Escalate to deescalate.
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