Eagle Eye
Player Valuation: £5m
⚠ Caution ⚠ long read, but if you do read, it will arm you with some facts to challenge kopites and other fans about our perceived frivolous spend. If that isn't of interest, skip to another thread now as don't want to waste your time.
OK, let me caveat this thread by saying all sales, purchase and current player values are courtesy of Transfermarkt.co.uk and not all loan fees are accounted for, but essentially this is the as good a picture you will get when it comes to our transfers since 2016.
The conclusion (for those that don't do detail) is that basically it is not as bad as fans of other clubs or the media would have you believe. When you consider what we paid for a player vs what we sold them for or what they are currently worth if they are still at the club, the balance is minus 55million since 2016. I have calculated this balance and named it as profit potential - basically for any given season as: the player actual sale value plus potential market value if they were sold now, vs total spend in the season. This would of course suppose we sold all players we have bought for their current market value (Transfermarkt.co.uk has some a little low I reckon too, so it could be better than -55m balance).
Also when you factor in players who were basically finished by injury (Bolasie, Tosun, Delph, (ahem) Sigurdsson, Gbamin and Gomes, we have been extremely unlucky. I have highlighted players who have suffered serious injuries lasting 90 days or more in the list.
If we literally take Bolasie, Tosun, Gbamin and Sigurdsson, that is around 60million lost value due to injury / lost re-sale value right there - enough to turn our negative spend balancem into a positive balance.
It also doesn't include homegrown player values like Davies, Gordon, Simms, Dobbin, so there is even more equity in our squad right there. We know we have been badly run, but we have also been unlucky to a point. The period when it went wrong for me was between Koeman and Allardyce, but feel free to draw your own conclusions...
I will try to keep this up to date as the windows progress - will be interesting to see how much we sell certain players for vs what we paid...
16/17
Bolasie 26m (Released free) (+inj)
Schneiderlin 20.7m (sold 2m). (+inj)
Williams 12.6m (released free)
Lookman 8m (Sold 16.2m)
Gueye 7.6m (Sold 27m)
Calvert lewin 1.6m (Value 37.8m) (+inj)
Sandro 5.4m (Released free)
Total paid 81.9m Total received 45.2m
Value of players remaining 37.8m
Profit Potential (+/-) +1.1m
17/18
Onyekuru. 7.2m (Sold 12.1m)
Rooney free (Released free)
Tosun 20m (Released Free) (+inj)
Vlasic 9.7m (Sold 20.7m)
Walcott 20m (Released free)
Klassen 24m (Sold 12.5m)
Pickford 25.6m (Value 22.5m)
Keane 25.6m (Value 19.8)
Sigurdsson 44.5m (Released free) (+??)
Total paid 176.6m Total received 45.3
Value of players remaining 42.3m
Profit Potential (+/-) - 89m
18/19
Richarlison 35.3m (Value 45m)
Mina 27.2m (Value 18m) (+inj)
Digne 18.2m (Sold 27m)
Zouma 7m loan fee
Gomes 2m loan fee
Bernard free (sold 900k)
Total paid 89.7m Total received 27.9m
Value of players remaining 63m
Profit Potential (+/-) +1.2m
19/20
Iwobi 27.4m (Value 16.2)
Kean 24.7m (6.3m loan with 24m obligation to buy)
Gomes 22.5m (Value 18m). (+inj)
Gbamin 22.5m (8.1m). (+inj)
Delph 8.5m (Released free) (+inj)
Sidibe 2.5m loan fee
Branthwaite 1m (Value 2.7m)
Total paid 109.1m Total received 30.3m
Value of players remaining 45m
Profit Potential (+/-) -34.8m
20/21
Godfrey 24.8m (Value 19.8m)
Allan 21.2m (Value 16.2m)
Doucoure 19.8m (Value 22.5m)
Nkounkou 250k (Value 2m)
Rodriguez free (sold 7.2m)
King free (Released free)
Olssen loan (Released loan end)
Total paid 66.05m Total received 7.2m
Value of players remaining 70.5m
Profit Potential (+/-) +11.65m
21/22
Mykolenko 21.2m (Value 21.1m)
Patterson 12.6m (Value 7.2m)
Gray 1.8m (Value 19.8m)
Alli free (Value 19.8m)
Townsend free (Value 6.3m) (+inj)
Rondon free (Value 3.6m)
Begovic free (Value 900k)
Lonergan free (Value 225k)
Van de beek loan (Released loan end)
El ghazi loan (Released loan end)
Total paid 35.6m Total received 0m
Value of players remaining 88.95m
Profit Potential (+/-) +53.35m
2016-2022 Totals
Total paid 558.95m Total received 155.9m
Value of players remaining 347.55m
Profit Potential (+/-) - 55.5m
Potential lost value through serious injury (+inj) (defined as an injury lasting 90 days or more): 110m (estimated using various factors)
*Please feel free to correct any numbers or calculations!!!
OK, let me caveat this thread by saying all sales, purchase and current player values are courtesy of Transfermarkt.co.uk and not all loan fees are accounted for, but essentially this is the as good a picture you will get when it comes to our transfers since 2016.
The conclusion (for those that don't do detail) is that basically it is not as bad as fans of other clubs or the media would have you believe. When you consider what we paid for a player vs what we sold them for or what they are currently worth if they are still at the club, the balance is minus 55million since 2016. I have calculated this balance and named it as profit potential - basically for any given season as: the player actual sale value plus potential market value if they were sold now, vs total spend in the season. This would of course suppose we sold all players we have bought for their current market value (Transfermarkt.co.uk has some a little low I reckon too, so it could be better than -55m balance).
Also when you factor in players who were basically finished by injury (Bolasie, Tosun, Delph, (ahem) Sigurdsson, Gbamin and Gomes, we have been extremely unlucky. I have highlighted players who have suffered serious injuries lasting 90 days or more in the list.
If we literally take Bolasie, Tosun, Gbamin and Sigurdsson, that is around 60million lost value due to injury / lost re-sale value right there - enough to turn our negative spend balancem into a positive balance.
It also doesn't include homegrown player values like Davies, Gordon, Simms, Dobbin, so there is even more equity in our squad right there. We know we have been badly run, but we have also been unlucky to a point. The period when it went wrong for me was between Koeman and Allardyce, but feel free to draw your own conclusions...
I will try to keep this up to date as the windows progress - will be interesting to see how much we sell certain players for vs what we paid...
16/17
Bolasie 26m (Released free) (+inj)
Schneiderlin 20.7m (sold 2m). (+inj)
Williams 12.6m (released free)
Lookman 8m (Sold 16.2m)
Gueye 7.6m (Sold 27m)
Calvert lewin 1.6m (Value 37.8m) (+inj)
Sandro 5.4m (Released free)
Total paid 81.9m Total received 45.2m
Value of players remaining 37.8m
Profit Potential (+/-) +1.1m
17/18
Onyekuru. 7.2m (Sold 12.1m)
Rooney free (Released free)
Tosun 20m (Released Free) (+inj)
Vlasic 9.7m (Sold 20.7m)
Walcott 20m (Released free)
Klassen 24m (Sold 12.5m)
Pickford 25.6m (Value 22.5m)
Keane 25.6m (Value 19.8)
Sigurdsson 44.5m (Released free) (+??)
Total paid 176.6m Total received 45.3
Value of players remaining 42.3m
Profit Potential (+/-) - 89m
18/19
Richarlison 35.3m (Value 45m)
Mina 27.2m (Value 18m) (+inj)
Digne 18.2m (Sold 27m)
Zouma 7m loan fee
Gomes 2m loan fee
Bernard free (sold 900k)
Total paid 89.7m Total received 27.9m
Value of players remaining 63m
Profit Potential (+/-) +1.2m
19/20
Iwobi 27.4m (Value 16.2)
Kean 24.7m (6.3m loan with 24m obligation to buy)
Gomes 22.5m (Value 18m). (+inj)
Gbamin 22.5m (8.1m). (+inj)
Delph 8.5m (Released free) (+inj)
Sidibe 2.5m loan fee
Branthwaite 1m (Value 2.7m)
Total paid 109.1m Total received 30.3m
Value of players remaining 45m
Profit Potential (+/-) -34.8m
20/21
Godfrey 24.8m (Value 19.8m)
Allan 21.2m (Value 16.2m)
Doucoure 19.8m (Value 22.5m)
Nkounkou 250k (Value 2m)
Rodriguez free (sold 7.2m)
King free (Released free)
Olssen loan (Released loan end)
Total paid 66.05m Total received 7.2m
Value of players remaining 70.5m
Profit Potential (+/-) +11.65m
21/22
Mykolenko 21.2m (Value 21.1m)
Patterson 12.6m (Value 7.2m)
Gray 1.8m (Value 19.8m)
Alli free (Value 19.8m)
Townsend free (Value 6.3m) (+inj)
Rondon free (Value 3.6m)
Begovic free (Value 900k)
Lonergan free (Value 225k)
Van de beek loan (Released loan end)
El ghazi loan (Released loan end)
Total paid 35.6m Total received 0m
Value of players remaining 88.95m
Profit Potential (+/-) +53.35m
2016-2022 Totals
Total paid 558.95m Total received 155.9m
Value of players remaining 347.55m
Profit Potential (+/-) - 55.5m
Potential lost value through serious injury (+inj) (defined as an injury lasting 90 days or more): 110m (estimated using various factors)
*Please feel free to correct any numbers or calculations!!!
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