The importance of the first goal, greater than ever?

[MACCA75]

In a single weekend you might find an outlier but if I'm not mistaken stats will show if you concede first you're unlikely to win.

Well that has always been the case, and always will be!

 

[NathDogg]

not for aston villa

Premier League: Ollie Watkins double gives Aston Villa comeback win at Chelsea

Reaction as substitute Ollie Watkins scores twice to give Aston Villa a 2-1 comeback win over Chelsea in the Premier League.

www.bbc.co.uk

Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham: Ollie Watkins ends goal drought as Villa get first league win

Ollie Watkins ends his goal drought as Aston Villa came from behind to beat Fulham for their first Premier League win of the season.

www.bbc.co.uk

Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa: Emi Buendia scores winner in comeback win

England's Morgan Rogers scores a superb individual goal and Emiliano Buendia grabs a late winner as Aston Villa fight back from a goal down to beat Tottenham.

www.bbc.co.uk

Leeds United vs Aston Villa LIVE: Premier League score, stats & updates

Follow live text commentary, score updates and match stats from Leeds United vs Aston Villa in the Premier League

www.bbc.co.uk

West Ham 2-3 Aston Villa: Morgan Rogers scores twice as visitors extend winning run to nine matches

Morgan Rogers scores two second-half goals as Aston Villa twice come from behind to beat West Ham and extend their winning run in all competitions to nine matches.

www.bbc.co.uk

Brighton 3-4 Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins scores twice as Villa battle back for Premier League win

Ollie Watkins scores twice as Aston Villa fight back from two goals down to win at Brighton in the Premier League.

www.bbc.co.uk

Very good manager in the Villa dugout helps.

Better full backs help.

Faster cbs help - push the entire unit 10 yards further forward as they can defend the space behind much better than we can.

We have never been great at coming back from being down, but I’m sure we were better at it with branthwaite in the side.

 

[BackRow PE6]

Allardyce had these stats down to a tee in one of his spreadsheets. I remember him going on about the % of points won by the team who scores first which was why he was so defensive (rather than try to be the team that scored first the big pie head). Might have been as high as 70% win rate over prem history.

 

[James Patrick]

Few stats.

 

[johnjoeefc]

Few stats.

Those stats are quite striking. They pretty much suggest that unless if your a lot better than your opponent then conceding first will mean nearly always your going home empty handed or at the very best with a point.

This is why i started the thread. It really means that if you concede first the match is likely to end disappointingly in the majority of cases.

Im sure it didnt used to be this way

 

[RomanReigns]

Nottingham Forest just came back from behind to win away from home….

 

[matty1878]

Just looking at all of our fixtures this season, thats some 22 games. Theres only 1 game where the first goal hasnt decided the match and that was the Palace extremely late comeback. That Palace game you could argue was lucky as well because they had plenty of chances to win and then maybe tired because of playing in Eastern Europe 3 days before the match.

Is it actually becoming an issue that after going ahead in a match that its too easy to hold onto a lead particularly after the increase in allowed subs. As soon as we conceded to Brentford you kind of knew the chances of a comeback were minimal and the stats backed it up. The opposite could be said of when we scored first at Forest that you didnt fancy they would come back.

Is it time for the rule makers to look at ways of evolving this as it cant be good for the game that teams are becoming so good at defending leads that one goal so often decides a match.

You see them statistics come up at the bottom and it seems to be for most teams now too. After scoring first have won last 14 out of 15 etc. Surely as a spectacle the game would be better if the first goal wasnt so important.

Its almost becoming a feeling of dread now when you concede first rather than in the early 2000's you would feel slightly annoyed but fully believe you could turn it around.

for sure mate - we seem crap
at chasing games and IE palace
aside we struggle to turn games

 

[matty1878]

Nottingham Forest just came back from behind to win away from home….

it’s at home that we have to try better!

 

[Kurt.]

Just looking at all of our fixtures this season, thats some 22 games. Theres only 1 game where the first goal hasnt decided the match and that was the Palace extremely late comeback. That Palace game you could argue was lucky as well because they had plenty of chances to win and then maybe tired because of playing in Eastern Europe 3 days before the match.

Is it actually becoming an issue that after going ahead in a match that its too easy to hold onto a lead particularly after the increase in allowed subs. As soon as we conceded to Brentford you kind of knew the chances of a comeback were minimal and the stats backed it up. The opposite could be said of when we scored first at Forest that you didnt fancy they would come back.

Is it time for the rule makers to look at ways of evolving this as it cant be good for the game that teams are becoming so good at defending leads that one goal so often decides a match.

You see them statistics come up at the bottom and it seems to be for most teams now too. After scoring first have won last 14 out of 15 etc. Surely as a spectacle the game would be better if the first goal wasnt so important.

Its almost becoming a feeling of dread now when you concede first rather than in the early 2000's you would feel slightly annoyed but fully believe you could turn it around.

That’s football mate, if you score first the onus is on the opposition to come and break you down. It’s the gamble you take as an opposition team, do you come out more and press for an equaliser knowing in doing so you’re leaving yourself more exposed to conceding again. That’s how the modern game is played now.

 

[uglykidjoe1982]

Few stats.

Maddest stat here is that City have lost every game where they’ve fallen behind

 

[sdcha2]

That’s football mate, if you score first the onus is on the opposition to come and break you down. It’s the gamble you take as an opposition team, do you come out more and press for an equaliser knowing in doing so you’re leaving yourself more exposed to conceding again. That’s how the modern game is played now.

Yeah agreed, not sure this thread is some breakthrough bit of analysis. Of course a team is less likely to win if they are a goal behind

 

[JLW]

Just looking at all of our fixtures this season, thats some 22 games. Theres only 1 game where the first goal hasnt decided the match and that was the Palace extremely late comeback. That Palace game you could argue was lucky as well because they had plenty of chances to win and then maybe tired because of playing in Eastern Europe 3 days before the match.

Is it actually becoming an issue that after going ahead in a match that its too easy to hold onto a lead particularly after the increase in allowed subs. As soon as we conceded to Brentford you kind of knew the chances of a comeback were minimal and the stats backed it up. The opposite could be said of when we scored first at Forest that you didnt fancy they would come back.

Is it time for the rule makers to look at ways of evolving this as it cant be good for the game that teams are becoming so good at defending leads that one goal so often decides a match.

You see them statistics come up at the bottom and it seems to be for most teams now too. After scoring first have won last 14 out of 15 etc. Surely as a spectacle the game would be better if the first goal wasnt so important.

Its almost becoming a feeling of dread now when you concede first rather than in the early 2000's you would feel slightly annoyed but fully believe you could turn it around.

I think it’s down to the way the game is played now, slow build up play. Years ago when teams conceded teams used to get the ball in the box almost immediately, the old saying (teams are most vulnerable when they have just scored) but now there’s to much fannying about, dullard passes across the defence. Im not saying teams should go full Dycheball but mix it up a bit.

Even when the bigger teams dominate it’s not wave after wave of attack it’s just more possession.

 

[RomanReigns]

 

[PhillG94]

Very surprised to see Liverpool near the bottom

 

[Slater582]

Looked like Villa heads went down after they conceded.