neil999
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he's been doing it again i'm afraid
Current Affairs The General Election
- Thread starter summerisle
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he's been doing it again i'm afraid
Indeed, catcher.
These early skirmishes are buoying my confidence that this election is nit going to pan out the way Cummings and Johnson nor indeed Swinson thought it might.
Bungle
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We try to medicate him but he still keeps wandering off the ward.
It's when he starts posting the same thing multiple times that we need to be really concerned.
Oh.
another month and a half of this ffs
Bungle
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You've assumed Joey is making it to the general election there.
I'll whisper it, but I think Swinson will do well but not in the way people think. She may just be strong enough to hold things together to take a number of Tory seats.
As for the PM, aside from Cummins there are a lot of nerves amongst big hitting Tories. They've never really worked out what happened in 2017. The ones I spoke too back then felt it was going to be a joke election where they trounced to a 500 seat win. May was their greatest leader and going to accomplish what even Thatcher couldn't, and Corbyn was like an incompetent Michael Foot. 1983 but on steroids.
They haven't worked out what went wrong, and unlike the Labour right who just channel such angst into tantrums, there is a fear for the tories, as they actually need to resolve that question to get back to governing.
If I had a pistol to my face I would say they will hold together for 2, possibly 3 weeks, but chinks will start to be seen after that.
I read somewhere that over double the young people are registering to vote than did previously. These people are not going to be voting Tory. There seems a real "shy" Labour (or none Tory) dynamic building. Young people will not be put off by the dark, cold or ice in the way older voters might.
Momentum also double their target for the election in 24 hours (around half the time expected). Alongside that election have doubled their target for fundraising. So there is a little momentum growing here.
There are lots of banana skins for the Tories to navigate to hold that lead. Johnson may be able to do it, but it's going to be challenging.
Yes Happy Brexmas
neil999
Player Valuation: £80m
thats aaron banks talking about where and if to put brexit party candidates up, nothing to do with tories standing aside
It's still a worry for Labour though .... he is the one with the Money .....
plus supports Boris......
neil999
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Billy Dean
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Just a reminder both of those parties want to sell off the NHS, Joe
Lets put some context to this. The ERG headbangers have huge majorities (for the most part) so there's little point in standing against them. It's partly why they have behaved as they have as well, Tory areas with huge leave votes essentially whipped members (of Parliament) into behaving in such a way. They can't even massively damage the Tories standing there, as the lead is so big it won't even lead to vote splitting and others getting in.
There is a quod pro quo though. The BXP would want in exchange for this the free run at the midlands and northern seats (potentially maybe 60-80) seats to attack Labour. It would be a real threat too.
The problem is with this, is publicly Cummins and Johnson have fallen into the same trap of May, of wanting to look Churchillian and have puff their chests out that they are aiming to win these seats. It's a very big come down to then refuse to stand in them. As a wider message it says the Conservatives don't care about whole swathes of the country, or at least consolidates that in voters minds, which will have wider ramifications.
Above all of that, it's a bad deal for the Conservatives told to that. They get to hold onto a whole number of seats they will always win and allow the BXP to potentially have an opportunity to win a load of seats they are targeting. There's also a bit of a realisation kicking in for the Tories that they need to crush the BXP as they have with UKIP if they really wish to move forward. The BXP gave them a glimpse of what could happen if they don't at the Europeans. If that were to happen at a national poll, given how old and concentrated their support is, there is no coming back from that.
So it's a bad deal. Imagine if the Lib Dems said we will stand aside in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle but we want you to stand aside in a load of marginals you were targeting to win. It's a terrible deal for Labour and they too would reject it.
The only other caveat with this, is for whatever reason Farage seems to want to bow out. I have no idea why.
If the referendum showed anything, it's that something that's popular with the people isn't always a good idea for the country. There's a reason why many analyses are suggesting that a Corbyn government would be almost as bad for the economy as Brexit.
abelard
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Which ones did you have in mind?
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