I'm not sure you're understanding the point. In a non-election period, there's a good incentive for both parties to seek a win-win outcome as that's the rational outcome. In an election period, Trump doesn't give two hoots about Britain. Think of the tariffs on China as an example. Everyone knows they hurt America, but he did them because they boosted his base. His base isn't going to care about giving Britain a good deal, and nothing in Trump's history suggests that's likely. He sees trade in zero sum terms, and in an election period, that's even more so.
I'm suggesting that because Germany and the US are in election periods, they are more likely to play hard ball, which given the timescales the government have forced upon us, means it's more likely we end with a poor deal, or no deal at all. We've seen this in Britain with the Tories setting stupid timetables on the negotiations, purely because they were in an election and wanted to appear tough.
No, I do get what you are saying Bruce. I can see why studies have come up with these conclusions and, generally speaking, I would normally be in agreement. I just think that both Germany and Donald Trumps USA are not good examples when you are trying to prove the rule.
The last thing you should be doing is trying to pigeon hole Trump, because he is not a politician, and is just as likely to do the opposite of what you expect. He lives in his own little narcissistic world and believes all his own hype. What's more, his supporters do too, as amazing as that appears to people like us. I think he could very easily look at a trade deal with the UK as a vote winner for him, so he could actually do the opposite to what you expect and give it more focus during an election period rather than less.
As regards Germany, I really don't think the German people are bothered about scoring points against the Brits. They know they need a trade deal with the UK. more so than any other EU country, and for that reason I think Merkel could easily see it as a vote winner and act the opposite to what you expect.
Having said that, it's just my opinion and I could easily be totally wrong on both counts. But I do understand what you are saying though.
I do agree with you as regards the self imposed timetable Johnson has given us though. Take the extra year on offer FFS you utterly stupid man.
