The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[davek]

I agree with your prediction there.

Oddly, the Lib Dems may actually remain in government this way, despite committing political suicide - I am of the opinion that they have entirely sold their principles down the river for 15 mins of fame, and that this government has been an entirely Conservative regime. However they may remain in power and remain kingmakers. Weird.

The LDs will probably get about 25-30 seats if the polls are calling this anything like correct. The Tories are currently polling about 282 and they need 326 to form a majority. The LD vote alone wouldn't do it for the Tories and even adding in a couple of UKIP MPs and 8 Democratic Unionists wouldn't see them over the line. (I also doubt the LDs could carry their own party to another pact with the Tories, tbh. I know that the leadership are so called 'orange bookers' - neo-liberals in economic terms - but the rank and file would be in uproar if the LDs became a permanent doormat for the Tories).

I just dont see where a right of centre coalition gets a majority. Unless the Labour vote now crumbles then we're surely heading toward a pretty fragile and patchwork quilt of centre-left coalition (or 'confidence and supply' arrangement) until another election is called in the Autumn.

 

[Groucho]

The LDs will probably get about 25-30 seats if the polls are calling this anything like correct. The Tories are currently polling about 282 and they need 326 to form a majority. The LD vote alone wouldn't do it for the Tories and even adding in a couple of UKIP MPs and 8 Democratic Unionists wouldn't see them over the line. (I also doubt the LDs could carry their own party to another pact with the Tories, tbh. I know that the leadership are so called 'orange bookers' - neo-liberals in economic terms - but the rank and file would be in uproar if the LDs became a permanent doormat for the Tories).

I just dont see where a right of centre coalition gets a majority. Unless the Labour vote now crumbles then we're surely heading toward a pretty fragile and patchwork quilt of centre-left coalition (or 'confidence and supply' arrangement) until another election is called in the Autumn.

Didn't we all expect a pretty rapid repeat election last time though?

Who else are likely to form a co-alition with Labour? No-one in a million years will get into bed with UKIP, thank Christ, but is the SNP the best move? I don't know actually that much about them. My money would be on a Lib-Lab joint venture.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Still no acknowledgement. How telling. You're like politician. It's hilarious in a way.

Anyway, I'm off to enjoy the rest of my holiday.

http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2015/03/31/caste-stereotypes/

Study finds that people are hindered by their class, not because of their class per se, but because they believe their class is an issue. In other words, it isn't their class that's stopping them from doing things, but their own attitude about their class.

"The UC Berkeley study looked specifically at attitudes in India to the Hindu caste system. It found that children and adults who were more influenced by caste were also more likely to believe that their own natural aptitude, academic success, and personality traits were fixed or set in stone.

The results suggest that while education, technology and new money are promoting social mobility and replacing old hierarchies in countries like India, gut feelings about how far we can transcend the circumstances of our birth and upbringing remain firmly entrenched. This mindset is particularly true of teenagers and adults, according to the study published this month in the journal, Developmental Science.

"This is one of the first studies to show a real link between a cultural system of social stratification and how we view our own life's possibilities," said UC Berkeley psychologist Mahesh Srinivasan, lead author of the study.

The results indicate the need to instill in children a "growth mindset" about their intellectual abilities rather than a fixed one because, as the study notes, people who believe that intelligence is fixed are more likely to avoid challenging problems.

"If you believe your ability is fixed and you do badly on a math test, you can just tell yourself that you're bad at math and shouldn't have to study any more," Srinivasan said. "But if you believe your ability is flexible and can be improved with effort, then you may decide that you would have succeeded if you had studied harder such that you'll be more likely to do better in the future"

.....

Regardless of whether they belonged to India's ruling class, middle class, working class or underclass, teenagers and adults consistently showed that the more they believed that caste is important, the more rigid were their ideas about their own intelligence, personality and ambitions."

As I said earlier. It isn't your situation that matters, but your response to it.

 

[davek]

Didn't we all expect a pretty rapid repeat election last time though?

Who else are likely to form a co-alition with Labour? No-one in a million years will get into bed with UKIP, thank Christ, but is the SNP the wisest move? My money would be on a Lib-Lab joint venture.

The SNP are likely to be closer to the LP on social issues, but the independence issue is massively divisive between them. A deal could be made with them though on certain negotiable' stuff (I dont even think the SNP are holding the early scrapping of Trident as part of any deal...in other words it'd be conveniently kicked into the long grass and the SNP would get some extra powers for Scotland). The Greens would contribute another couple of seats and Plaid Cymru (maybe 4/5 seats). If Labour secured about 280 seats that could easily do it for them without the LDs.

 

[roydo]

My money would be on a Lib-Lab joint venture.

Could well be. Would prefer that to the Nats holding sway over Milliband.

 

[Groucho]

The SNP are likely to be closer to the LP on social issues, but the independence issue is massively divisive between them. A deal could be made with them though on certain negotiable' stuff (I dont even think the SNP are holding the early scrapping of Trident as part of any deal...in other words it'd be conveniently kicked into the long grass and the SNP would get some extra powers for Scotland). The Greens would contribute another couple of seats and Plaid Cymru (maybe 4/5 seats). If Labour secured about 280 seats that could easily do it for them without the LDs.

So a 4 party government?

It'd be interesting, and perhaps the SNP may not be too bad after all. I've said before, the Greens are quite socialist, but some of their other policies put me off voting for them.

 

[Blue 1]

I wish the party leaders would be prepared to say what they'd be prepared to sacrifice in a coalition, seeing as that's what'll probably happen.

They're all pretending it won't, for fear of appearing "weak", or something.

 

[peteblue]

If the SNP get hold of any levers of power then the country is screwed.......

 

[roydo]

So a 4 party government?

It'd be interesting, and perhaps the SNP may not be too bad after all. I've said before, the Greens are quite socialist, but some of their other policies put me off voting for them.

My view of the SNP is that is they do have an influence, they are as likely to use it to play stupid political games with the intention of playing to their Scottish gallery. All good fun and that in a devolved parliament, but dangerous and irresponsible on matters of national importance.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of what the Coalition did or didnt do, by and large, it was a stable, consistent 5 years. Which is a pretty decent result in the context of the 2 parties who joined together when things looked pretty damn bleak at the time.

 

[Groucho]

My view of the SNP is that is they do have an influence, they are as likely to use it to play stupid political games with the intention of playing to their Scottish gallery. All good fun and that in a devolved parliament, but dangerous and irresponsible on matters of national importance.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of what the Coalition did or didnt do, by and large, it was a stable, consistent 5 years. Which is a pretty decent result in the context of the 2 parties who joined together when things looked pretty damn bleak at the time.

Perhaps then, it's time to change?

This letter today is like turkey farmers voting for Xmas.

 

[peteblue]

My view of the SNP is that is they do have an influence, they are as likely to use it to play stupid political games with the intention of playing to their Scottish gallery. All good fun and that in a devolved parliament, but dangerous and irresponsible on matters of national importance.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of what the Coalition did or didnt do, by and large, it was a stable, consistent 5 years. Which is a pretty decent result in the context of the 2 parties who joined together when things looked pretty damn bleak at the time.

That's the point really. People quickly forget the absolute mess that the last government left behind. I would like to see the current coalition continue and be given the opportunity to complete what they started...........constant change does no country any good.....

 

[roydo]

Perhaps then, it's time to change?

This letter today is like turkey farmers voting for Xmas.

Maybe. Like @peteblue says, strip away the detail, and the Coalition did ok imo.

 

[edge]

The SNP are likely to be closer to the LP on social issues, but the independence issue is massively divisive between them. A deal could be made with them though on certain negotiable' stuff (I dont even think the SNP are holding the early scrapping of Trident as part of any deal...in other words it'd be conveniently kicked into the long grass and the SNP would get some extra powers for Scotland). The Greens would contribute another couple of seats and Plaid Cymru (maybe 4/5 seats). If Labour secured about 280 seats that could easily do it for them without the LDs.

think the libs , might want to be in that mix as well, ukip have shot themselves in the foot in the north with saying they could do deal with the tory and unionist partys.
i have got a feeling this election is going to swing one way or the other with some dirt coming out along the way.

 

[Groucho]

Maybe. Like @peteblue says, strip away the detail, and the Coalition did ok imo.

But hasn't the national debt risen? In cutting the deficit (essentially the UK's overdraft), they've borrowed on top of an already substantial debt.

They've cut the deficit, but enlarged the debt, which for me begs the question, if the economy was already recovering which I'm led to belive it was, why extreme austerity and mass cuts?

 

[roydo]

But hasn't the national debt risen? In cutting the deficit (essentially the UK's overdraft), they've borrowed on top of an already substantial debt.

They've cut the deficit, but enlarged the debt, which for me begs the question, if the economy was already recovering which I'm led to belive it was, why extreme austerity and mass cuts?

Well like I said, details aside! As an unusual and rare occurance in the UK, the fact the coalition stayed the course was an achievement imo. And I have given up believing who is right about debt/deficit/cuts!

By pretty much any measurement, the economy is heading in a better direction than it was. Not totally down to the coalition, and I have no idea if Balls would have made it recover quicker as he reckons he would have done.