T20 World Cup

[summerisle]

Crushing win for Australia whose run rate has shot up, now above South Africa. Another defeat for the West Indies, there's going to be some navel gazing in the coming weeks in the Caribbean.

 

[Ivo]

I agree completely with previous posts about Malan. Have no idea how he managed to be top of the T20 rankings. Seems better suited to 50 over cricket imo. Just not explosive enough. If stokes was available you'd just swap them, and then maybe move livingstone up the order.

 

[Cool_Blue]

The main problem with picking Mark Wood are twofold really.

1. His continuing injury problems mean he probably needs protecting if possible with the Ashes coming up. Without Archer it hardly needs stressing how important a fully fit Wood is at Brisbane.

2. Putting aside injury worries though, his suitability for replacing Tymal Mills death bowling at the end compromises picking him for what he's really good at. Wood's real strengths are bowling in the power play, steaming in and hurling it down very fast. He's also, like South Africa's demon quick Nortje, used as an enforcer in the middle overs 7-16 a role he's meds essentially his alone when he's fit and firing.

I reckon England may take the opportunity to drop the official world number one T20 batsman Dawid Malan (T20 rankings really are absolutely useless and misleading) who's clearly struggling this year in this format and finding slow pitches very difficult to bat on.

So Malan and the injured Mills out and Wood and either Willey or Topley in.

Losing a toss and trying to defend a total in heavy dew with a wet ball while committed to having to deliver 8 overs of spin is a major weakness. England could be in trouble if they lose a crucial toss and have to bat first and defend in the dew. Having Willey coming in at 8 gives Morgan an extra seamer and not have to be committed to bowling 8 overs of spin in heavy dew. Alternatively the left arm Topley could replace Mills left armers at the death. Topley has been right in form for Surrey in white ball cricket and has height too.

Roy, Buttler, Bairstow, Morgan, Ali, Livingstone, Woakes, (Willey), Jordan, Rashid, Wood

Or Topley bats at 11 with Jordan, Rashid and Wood moving up one place

Or Tom Curran maybe? I like Willey though, and he deserves a chance. Incidentally, Ashes wise, what on Earth is wrong with Archer? He’s been injured for about 2 years now.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

Or Tom Curran maybe? I like Willey though, and he deserves a chance. Incidentally, Ashes wise, what on Earth is wrong with Archer? He’s been injured for about 2 years now.

It's possible although personally I'm not a great fan of Tom Curran, not that that matters of course!!!

He used to have a reputation as a good death bowler but that seems to be slipping too tbh.

Without Mills, it is not entirely clear who will bowl alongside Chris Jordan at the death. Since the start of 2019, Mills has a phenomenal economy rate of 7.4 in the final five overs of all T20 games. The next best among the England side are Jordan, David Willey and Mark Wood, who all have economy rates of just under 9.6 in this phase. Tom Curran, who is often considered a death specialist himself, is conceding 10.6 an over in the last five overs since 2019.

Seems to give the lie to Curran over Wood as an effective death bowler. Maybe once he had that reputation but recent history suggests he no longer is any more effective than Wood or Willey, infact less effective if anything.

 

[Cool_Blue]

It's possible although personally I'm not a great fan of Tom Curran, not that that matters of course!!!

He used to have a reputation as a good death bowler but that seems to be slipping too tbh.

Without Mills, it is not entirely clear who will bowl alongside Chris Jordan at the death. Since the start of 2019, Mills has a phenomenal economy rate of 7.4 in the final five overs of all T20 games. The next best among the England side are Jordan, David Willey and Mark Wood, who all have economy rates of just under 9.6 in this phase. Tom Curran, who is often considered a death specialist himself, is conceding 10.6 an over in the last five overs since 2019.

Seems to give the lie to Curran over Wood as an effective death bowler. Maybe once he had that reputation but recent history suggests he no longer is any more effective than Wood or Willey, infact less effective if anything.

Willey has the edge as an extra batsman, but that is only if he was required. He’s also England’s only left arm bowling option in Mills’ absence. I just don’t see Wood having enough variations, he’s out and out pace, and in this competition if you get it slightly wrong at his pace, it ends up in Row Z.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

Willey has the edge as an extra batsman, but that is only if he was required. He’s also England’s only left arm bowling option in Mills’ absence. I just don’t see Wood having enough variations, he’s out and out pace, and in this competition if you get it slightly wrong at his pace, it ends up in Row Z.

Topley is bowling well, very tall and left arm - I suspect they might be tempted to change their modus operandi slightly by dropping Malan and including Wood and Willey or Topley (Willey probably,).

Losing the toss at Sharjah is such a huge disadvantage and although there shouldn't be s massive dew factor being a day game against RSA, The dew factor which so nearly cost them against Sri Lanka has to be factored in.

Eight overs of spin in heavy dew with a soaking wet ball and the ball skidding on nicely to the bat isn't ideal. Morgan needs options incase we lose the toss in the semi and final. Losing the toss could knock us out unless there's another option to spin.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

After NZ beating Namibia and India winning the toss against Scotland, which in effect means it'll be a huge margin of victory, the equation for second in group 2 is simple.

New Zealand beat Afghanistan, NZ through in second

Afghanistan beat New Zealand, India through in second

Hoping for a NZ win against Afghanistan as England are almost certain to meet the second place team in group 2

 

[PITA]

After NZ beating Namibia and India winning the toss against Scotland, which in effect means it'll be a huge margin of victory, the equation for second in group 2 is simple.

New Zealand beat Afghanistan, NZ through in second

Afghanistan beat New Zealand, India through in second

Hoping for a NZ win against Afghanistan as England are almost certain to meet the second place team in group 2

And we don’t want to play India now that they have decided to turn up.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

And we don’t want to play India now that they have decided to turn up.

Odds to reach semis (in effect NZ beat Afghanistan or not)

NZ 1.44 about 7/5 (marginally longer odds but near enough)

India (Afghan win) 3.25 about 13/4

Just hope the live betting is on the money so to speak - Betfair odds split the difference between back and lay odds

 

[Chris O'Connor]

And we don’t want to play India now that they have decided to turn up.

Tbf India lost or rather were obliterated by the big teams but are hammering the minnows, hardly worldbeating

 

[PITA]

You have to say there's a huge uneveness about the two groups. The Pakistan, NZ, India group has Afghanistan as one of the 'big' teams and two really weak sides indeed in absolute no hopers Scotland and Namibia (both probably think getting here was enough and getting massacred every game from now in some kind of achievement).

The England, Australia, South Africa group have reigning world champions West indies as that groups Afghanistan equivalent while established sides Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as the Scotland and Namibia equivalents.

One group is the group of death while the other is pretty much a group of only three sides of which two qualify.

It's a huge advantage to be in the easy group and pretty much in the semis than battle it out in the group of death were even the so called minnows pose a huge threat.

That was caused by Scotland winning their qualifying group unexpectedly.

 

[PITA]

Tbf India lost or rather were obliterated by the big teams but are hammering the minnows, hardly worldbeating

Not sure I’d want to play them in the semi though.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

Not sure I’d want to play them in the semi though.

NZ 4/9 to win against Afghanistan

Do that and it doesn't matter if India win by 5 million runs as they're out as can't catch NZ on points

NZ 4 wins and one defeat if they beat Afghanistan equals 8 points

India have already lost to New Zealand and Pakistan and can only get 6 points by beating the minnows so unlikely to get through. Totally reliant on NZ losing game they're odds on favourites for.

 

[PITA]

NZ 4/9 to win against Afghanistan

Do that and it doesn't matter if India win by 5 million runs as they're out as can't catch NZ on points

NZ 4 wins and one defeat if they beat Afghanistan equals 8 points

India have already lost to New Zealand and Pakistan and can only get 6 points by beating the minnows so unlikely to get through. Totally reliant on NZ losing game they're odds on favourites for.

Chris, I know but I’d still prefer to play NZ. Very solid team but India can, like England, blow any team away ‘on their day’.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

Chris, I know but I’d still prefer to play NZ. Very solid team but India can, like England, blow any team away ‘on their day’.

I've got a sneaking suspicion NZ will win this tbh. Their batting isn't their strongest point but they can get away with it on slow pitches.